Mood Indigo

"You ain't been blue;
no, no, no.
You ain't been blue,
Till you've had that mood indigo"

Can't say that I understand the exact meaning of the song, but it is by Duke Ellington and certainly refers to being down in the proverbial dumps. And I do know that feeling... at least financially. Important not to lose sight of reality. Stocks go up and stocks go down. I don't buy on margin. We're living the same lifestyle irregardless of the 15% decline in my portfolio in the past month. I've got my health and a loving family along with a good job.
Hit it boys!

"Got no mansion, got no yacht,
Still I'm happy with what I've got;
I've got the sun in the morning and the moon at night."

Enough sentiment, tell Ethel she can stop singing.

Wow, Cramer has been so wrong lately. I know that this is an MFI diary, but he is killing people. Lots of other people have been wrong as well, but he comes across as so confident.

June 2nd - he said we're in a "Goldilocks economy which has put the market in a soft-landing heaven"
June 8th - he "taught us how to speculate like a pro" with his new speculative portfolio. That portfolio is down about 16% in a week.

Enough Cramer-bashing. To be brutally frank, he says so many things every week, that some are bound to be right and some are bound to be wrong.

Wow, just glanced at the old QQQQ. In the Red again at 1:50 EDT. I think they said it has been red 8 days in a row. Yikes!

1:59PM Nasdaq Composite sets new 8 month low, holding at support (COMPX) 2074.95 +2.48 : The index slipped under Tuesday's low this afternoon but has held at the 2069/2064 mentioned in The Technical Take support (late Oct swing low, 50% retrace off Aug 2004, congest) and edged higher. Intraday need to see sustained follow through above 2080 and 2086 to improve the pattern.

20/20 Hindsight. It is true that some of my recent stock buys have been far from stellar moves. But how about my sales?

My two emerging market funds I sold on May 31st to fund the 5 MFI stocks I bought are down a composite 14%. That is worse than the MFI stocks I bought with the proceeds (down 12%).

My two upside down MFI stocks, DCGN & OLED are down a composite 15% since I sold them July 5th. And I was smart enough to buy AXS with those funds (up a heroic 2%).

For anyone who cares, AXS has become my single largest stock holding. They are trading at just 5.55x next 12 mo earnings. They have extraordinary pricing power as insurance companies are are scrambling to buy more cat protection at the same time cat re-insurers are limiting their coverage and limits. The final great thing about AXS is they are relatively recession proof... people have to insure their businesses etc. For the record, my average purchase price is about $26.75. Just have to hope the wind doesn't blow too hard (ps - this is a much much smarter company than Cramer's ill-fated MRH. This can be seen looking at pre Katrina prices:

Stock ------ 8/1/05------ 6/14/06

MRH -------$34.31 --------$16.20
AXS --------$28.56 --------$27.42

It is the end of the day. The market actually went up a bunch at the end. I don't think I'll get too giddy yet!

Mavs lost a tough one last night. See ya!