Weekend Update 4/30/16

Weekend Update

Wow, tomorrow is May 1st.  Just crazy. I was down about 1% last week.  That was actually good as the benchmark was down 1.6 percent.  So I am now up 3.8% for the year - I guess I should be pleased with that.  But frankly it is not MFI carrying the water.  My MFI select is down 7.2%, MFI Formula is up 2.1% and the MFI Index is basically flat.

Earnings have been pouring in. I touched on a few of them earlier in the week. VDSI announced Thursday night (VASCO Reports Results for First Quarter 2016) and they were decent. This is a cyber security stock that I am less and less excited about.

MFI Select

As I mentioned, this approach is down 7% this year. My most recent tranche is really torpedoed by PERI (down 31%). They announce earnings soon, hopefully that will turn the tide.

5/6/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CBI	$50.38	$40.25	$0.14	-19.8%	-0.8%
PSDV	$4.12	$2.87	$0.00	-30.4%	-0.8%
TSRA	$38.94	$28.72	$0.80	-24.2%	-0.8%
KORS	$62.24	$51.66	$0.00	-17.0%	-0.8%
DEPO	$23.50	$17.38	$0.00	-26.0%	-0.8%
Totals				-23.5%	-0.8%
8/17/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VDSI	$18.66	$17.33	$0.00	-7.1%	-1.4%
SALE	$9.34	$8.43	$0.00	-9.7%	-1.4%
CSCO	$28.95	$27.49	$0.68	-2.7%	-1.4%
TGNA	$25.30	$23.36	$0.42	-6.0%	-1.4%
HSII	$20.14	$19.73	$0.26	-0.7%	-1.4%
Totals				-5.3%	-1.4%
11/15/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
LCI	$34.01	$19.18	-	-43.6%	0.9%
SAVE	$34.48	$43.93	-	27.4%	0.9%
PPC	$18.98	$26.91	-	41.8%	0.9%
VEC	$23.60	$21.56	-	-8.6%	0.9%
VNCE	$3.99	$6.18	-	54.9%	0.9%
Totals				14.4%	0.9%
2/1/2016	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VEC	$19.64	$21.56	$           -	9.8%	7.3%
QCOM	$45.18	$50.52	$       0.48	12.9%	7.3%
PERI	$2.45	$1.67	$           -	-31.8%	7.3%
DEPO	$15.34	$17.38	$           -	13.3%	7.3%
TDC	$24.02	$25.30	$           -	5.3%	7.3%
Totals				1.9%	7.3%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	-5.3%	14.4%	1.9%	-23.5%	-3.0%
Previous Tranche	11.2%	69.4%	-14.3%	18.3%	61.2%
Tranche -2	41.4%	14.2%	8.5%	33.0%	24.3%
Tranche -3	14.1%	43.7%	78.3%	0.0%	0.0%
MFI Overall Gain	69.9%	218.1%	68.8%	20.4%	94.3%
Current Balance	42,475	79,527	42,210	30,088	194,301
R3K Current Tranche	-1.4%	0.9%	7.3%	-0.8%	1.5%
R3K Overall Gain	56.5%	59.1%	42.9%	33.1%	47.9%
R3K Balance	39,126	39,780	35,736	33,281	147,923
Annualized IRR	15.4%	39.7%	17.5%	6.4%	24.0%

The May tranche will be replaced at the end of the week. Down 23.5%, all I can say is "so long, it's been good to know you".

Date	Differential	MFI Value	R3K Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765	101,965
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798	104,575
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594	104,856
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881	105,114
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804	107,234
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423	108,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831	111,085
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888	110,597
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799	117,889
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536	114,079
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655	118,990
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514	123,764
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105	126,405
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138	130,503
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619	125,918
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116	132,458
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991	132,616
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428	132,779
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001	135,559
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971	138,740
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054	135,922
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792	141,892
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321	138,944
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810	142,666
12/1/2014	30.22%	176,420	146,198
1/1/2015	28.17%	174,306	146,140
2/1/2015	20.63%	162,833	142,201
3/1/2015	25.15%	175,476	150,324
4/1/2015	29.95%	178,565	148,612
5/1/2015	37.31%	186,655	149,348
6/1/2015	51.53%	202,897	151,371
7/1/2015	62.69%	211,437	148,743
8/1/2015	40.75%	192,117	151,369
9/1/2015	36.41%	178,603	142,195
10/1/2015	43.12%	181,175	138,052
11/1/2015	69.02%	217,959	148,936
12/1/2015	73.49%	223,435	149,946
1/1/2016	63.33%	209,514	146,186
2/1/2016	49.49%	187,428	137,934
3/1/2016	56.48%	194,415	137,934
4/1/2016	47.34%	195,770	148,430
5/1/2016	46.38%	194,301	147,923

My month by month table shows April was nothing great.

MFI Formula

The struggle continues here.

Date	Differential	Value	R3K Value
10/1/2014	0.00%	100,000	100,000
11/1/2014	1.63%	102,288	100,658
12/1/2014	0.30%	101,375	101,075
1/1/2015	-0.33%	100,664	100,995
2/1/2015	1.67%	101,281	99,611
3/1/2015	3.62%	106,073	102,454
4/1/2015	5.09%	106,781	101,695
5/1/2015	5.78%	107,859	102,077
6/1/2015	5.08%	108,213	103,134
7/1/2015	4.82%	106,423	101,604
8/1/2015	3.71%	107,112	103,404
9/1/2015	4.38%	101,523	97,139
10/1/2015	6.39%	100,703	94,312
11/1/2015	2.93%	104,835	101,907
12/1/2015	-3.48%	99,443	102,926
1/1/2016	-3.36%	96,830	100,193
2/1/2016	-0.72%	93,797	94,319
3/1/2016	4.07%	98,588	94,319
4/1/2016	0.34%	102,371	101,548
5/1/2016	-1.91%	99,774	101,687

You can see April was bad, going from $102,371 to 99,774. I need to think about why R3K went up in April here, but down in MFI select. Something seems wrong.

7/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$46.45	$28.94	$1.96	-33.5%	-0.8%
CA	$29.34	$29.66	$0.75	3.6%	-0.8%
MSFT	$44.42	$49.87	$1.03	14.6%	-0.8%
QCOM	$62.95	$50.52	$1.44	-17.5%	-0.8%
VIAB	$64.75	$40.90	$1.20	-35.0%	-0.8%
Totals				-13.5%	-0.8%
10/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$36.83	$28.94	$1.73	-16.7%	6.5%
IQNT	$21.96	$16.59	$0.30	-23.1%	6.5%
QCOM	$53.45	$50.52	$0.96	-3.7%	6.5%
CSCO	$26.37	$27.49	$0.68	6.8%	6.5%
CA	$27.30	$29.66	$0.50	10.5%	6.5%
Totals				-5.2%	6.5%
12/31/15 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BBY	$30.31	$32.08	$0.73	8.2%	0.8%
GME	$28.34	$32.80	$0.37	17.0%	0.8%
IILG	$15.89	$14.12	$0.12	-10.4%	0.8%
PPC	$22.22	$26.91	$0.00	21.1%	0.8%
VIAB	$40.93	$40.90	$0.40	0.9%	0.8%
Totals				7.4%	0.8%
4/1/16 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CALM	$51.27	$50.76	$0.44	-0.1%	0.5%
HPQ	$12.10	$12.27	$0.00	1.4%	0.5%
TIME	$15.24	$14.70	$0.00	-3.6%	0.5%
IILG	$13.85	$14.12	$0.00	1.9%	0.5%
TSRA	$30.79	$28.72	$0.00	-6.7%	0.5%
Totals				-1.4%	0.5%

MFI Micro

12/15/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
MGIC	$5.38	$6.68	$0.09	25.8%	0.6%
BSQR	$6.00	$6.21	$0.00	3.5%	0.6%
SPCB	$4.52	$4.09	$0.00	-9.5%	0.6%
WLDN	$8.64	$10.75	$0.00	24.4%	0.6%
MNDO	$2.58	$2.07	$0.27	-9.4%	0.6%
Totals			-	7.0%	0.6%

Surprisingly good.

Dividends and Warrants

This is easily my best group of 2016, up 9.4%.

Div and Warrants	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	Pct Gain Last Week	Year End 2015
BAC-WTA	$4.90	$4.39	$0.00	-10.4%	-10.8%	-3.6%
AOD	$7.65	$7.57	$1.33	16.4%	16.8%	15.3%
JQC	$7.81	$7.93	$0.25	4.7%	4.4%	0.9%
CSQ	$9.03	$9.87	$1.70	28.1%	28.4%	27.3%
NTC	$12.07	$13.62	$1.45	24.9%	24.9%	16.1%
TGONF	$10.24	$9.83	$1.52	10.9%	7.5%	8.3%
HIG-WT	$21.24	$36.93	$0.00	73.9%	78.0%	72.9%
O	$23.19	$59.20	$18.37	234.5%	234.4%	205.7%
OIBAX	$5.05	$5.80	$2.19	58.4%	57.6%	51.9%
SJT	$8.76	$6.91	$0.19	-19.0%	-25.4%	-51.6%
REXI	$5.60	$6.32	$0.13	15.1%	18.1%	-2.8%
Totals				12.2%	11.5%	6.2%

You can see SJT has really been moving up.

Have a great weekend everyone.