Saturday, April 30, 2016

Weekend Update 4/30/16

Weekend Update

Wow, tomorrow is May 1st.  Just crazy. I was down about 1% last week.  That was actually good as the benchmark was down 1.6 percent.  So I am now up 3.8% for the year - I guess I should be pleased with that.  But frankly it is not MFI carrying the water.  My MFI select is down 7.2%, MFI Formula is up 2.1% and the MFI Index is basically flat.

Earnings have been pouring in. I touched on a few of them earlier in the week. VDSI announced Thursday night (VASCO Reports Results for First Quarter 2016) and they were decent. This is a cyber security stock that I am less and less excited about.

MFI Select

As I mentioned, this approach is down 7% this year. My most recent tranche is really torpedoed by PERI (down 31%). They announce earnings soon, hopefully that will turn the tide.

5/6/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CBI  $50.38 $40.25 $0.14 -19.8% -0.8%
 PSDV  $4.12 $2.87 $0.00 -30.4% -0.8%
 TSRA  $38.94 $28.72 $0.80 -24.2% -0.8%
 KORS  $62.24 $51.66 $0.00 -17.0% -0.8%
 DEPO  $23.50 $17.38 $0.00 -26.0% -0.8%
 Totals  -23.5% -0.8%
8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $17.33 $0.00 -7.1% -1.4%
 SALE  $9.34 $8.43 $0.00 -9.7% -1.4%
 CSCO  $28.95 $27.49 $0.68 -2.7% -1.4%
 TGNA  $25.30 $23.36 $0.42 -6.0% -1.4%
 HSII  $20.14 $19.73 $0.26 -0.7% -1.4%
 Totals  -5.3% -1.4%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $19.18               -   -43.6% 0.9%
 SAVE  $34.48 $43.93               -   27.4% 0.9%
 PPC  $18.98 $26.91               -   41.8% 0.9%
 VEC  $23.60 $21.56               -   -8.6% 0.9%
 VNCE  $3.99 $6.18               -   54.9% 0.9%
 Totals  14.4% 0.9%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $21.56  $           -   9.8% 7.3%
 QCOM  $45.18 $50.52  $       0.48 12.9% 7.3%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.67  $           -   -31.8% 7.3%
 DEPO  $15.34 $17.38  $           -   13.3% 7.3%
 TDC  $24.02 $25.30  $           -   5.3% 7.3%
 Totals  1.9% 7.3%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -5.3% 14.4% 1.9% -23.5% -3.0%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 61.2%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  69.9% 218.1% 68.8% 20.4% 94.3%
 Current Balance         42,475          79,527       42,210        30,088      194,301
 R3K Current Tranche  -1.4% 0.9% 7.3% -0.8% 1.5%
 R3K Overall Gain  56.5% 59.1% 42.9% 33.1% 47.9%
 R3K Balance         39,126          39,780       35,736        33,281      147,923
 Annualized IRR  15.4% 39.7% 17.5% 6.4% 24.0%


The May tranche will be replaced at the end of the week. Down 23.5%, all I can say is "so long, it's been good to know you".

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923

My month by month table shows April was nothing great.

MFI Formula

The struggle continues here.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,193
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,319
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,319
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,687
You can see April was bad, going from $102,371 to 99,774. I need to think about why R3K went up in April here, but down in MFI select. Something seems wrong.


7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $28.94 $1.96 -33.5% -0.8%
 CA  $29.34 $29.66 $0.75 3.6% -0.8%
 MSFT  $44.42 $49.87 $1.03 14.6% -0.8%
 QCOM  $62.95 $50.52 $1.44 -17.5% -0.8%
 VIAB  $64.75 $40.90 $1.20 -35.0% -0.8%
 Totals  -13.5% -0.8%
10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $28.94 $1.73 -16.7% 6.5%
 IQNT  $21.96 $16.59 $0.30 -23.1% 6.5%
 QCOM  $53.45 $50.52 $0.96 -3.7% 6.5%
 CSCO  $26.37 $27.49 $0.68 6.8% 6.5%
 CA  $27.30 $29.66 $0.50 10.5% 6.5%
 Totals  -5.2% 6.5%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $32.08 $0.73 8.2% 0.8%
 GME  $28.34 $32.80 $0.37 17.0% 0.8%
 IILG  $15.89 $14.12 $0.12 -10.4% 0.8%
 PPC  $22.22 $26.91 $0.00 21.1% 0.8%
 VIAB  $40.93 $40.90 $0.40 0.9% 0.8%
 Totals  7.4% 0.8%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $50.76 $0.44 -0.1% 0.5%
 HPQ  $12.10 $12.27 $0.00 1.4% 0.5%
 TIME  $15.24 $14.70 $0.00 -3.6% 0.5%
 IILG  $13.85 $14.12 $0.00 1.9% 0.5%
 TSRA  $30.79 $28.72 $0.00 -6.7% 0.5%
 Totals  -1.4% 0.5%

MFI Micro

12/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MGIC  $5.38 $6.68 $0.09 25.8% 0.6%
 BSQR  $6.00 $6.21 $0.00 3.5% 0.6%
 SPCB  $4.52 $4.09 $0.00 -9.5% 0.6%
 WLDN  $8.64 $10.75 $0.00 24.4% 0.6%
 MNDO  $2.58 $2.07 $0.27 -9.4% 0.6%
 Totals               -   7.0% 0.6%

Surprisingly good.

Dividends and Warrants

This is easily my best group of 2016, up 9.4%.

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   Year End 2015 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $4.39 $0.00 -10.4% -10.8% -3.6%
 AOD  $7.65 $7.57 $1.33 16.4% 16.8% 15.3%
 JQC  $7.81 $7.93 $0.25 4.7% 4.4% 0.9%
 CSQ  $9.03 $9.87 $1.70 28.1% 28.4% 27.3%
 NTC  $12.07 $13.62 $1.45 24.9% 24.9% 16.1%
 TGONF  $10.24 $9.83 $1.52 10.9% 7.5% 8.3%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.93 $0.00 73.9% 78.0% 72.9%
 O  $23.19 $59.20 $18.37 234.5% 234.4% 205.7%
 OIBAX  $5.05 $5.80 $2.19 58.4% 57.6% 51.9%
 SJT  $8.76 $6.91 $0.19 -19.0% -25.4% -51.6%
 REXI  $5.60 $6.32 $0.13 15.1% 18.1% -2.8%
 Totals  12.2% 11.5% 6.2%

You can see SJT has really been moving up.

Have a great weekend everyone.

1 comment:

Corpraider said...

Weird/bad Perrigo luck. It seems like the Gotham Funds and QVAL all did pretty decent last month.