Saturday, April 16, 2016

Weekend Update - 4/16/16

Weekend Update

At JFK, waiting for flight. I'll try to get out a quick weekend update. Funny, it did not feel like a good week, but I was up over 2%. So that gets me out of the red and up 1.85% for the year.

I saw a hedge fund letter that said while 2015 was a tough roller coaster year, that 2016 would make 2015 look like a kids ride at Disneyworld.  That feel on point so far.  Down 12% right out of the gate, now up slightly.  But probably a good idea not to get too comfortable.

MFI Select

This group of 20 stocks are still  down 5.4% on the year.  They can't get any traction and my write up yesterday of the May 2015 tranche was very typical.  Even my recent February tranche is being drug down by PERI, which is a stock I really believe in.  Time will tell.

5/6/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CBI  $50.38 $35.66 $0.14 -28.9% 0.2%
 PSDV  $4.12 $2.96 $0.00 -28.2% 0.2%
 TSRA  $38.94 $29.82 $0.80 -21.4% 0.2%
 KORS  $62.24 $52.29 $0.00 -16.0% 0.2%
 DEPO  $23.50 $16.06 $0.00 -31.7% 0.2%
 Totals  -25.2% 0.2%
8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $17.05 $0.00 -8.6% -0.4%
 SALE  $9.34 $8.41 $0.00 -9.9% -0.4%
 CSCO  $28.95 $27.90 $0.68 -1.3% -0.4%
 TGNA  $25.30 $23.62 $0.42 -5.0% -0.4%
 HSII  $20.14 $24.69 $0.26 23.9% -0.4%
 Totals  -0.2% -0.4%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $18.10               -   -46.8% 1.9%
 SAVE  $34.48 $50.11               -   45.4% 1.9%
 PPC  $18.98 $25.09               -   32.2% 1.9%
 VEC  $23.60 $22.26               -   -5.7% 1.9%
 VNCE  $3.99 $6.43               -   61.2% 1.9%
 Totals  17.2% 1.9%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $22.26               -   13.4% 8.3%
 QCOM  $45.18 $51.06           0.48 14.1% 8.3%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.83               -   -25.3% 8.3%
 DEPO  $15.34 $16.06               -   4.7% 8.3%
 TDC  $24.02 $24.69               -   2.8% 8.3%
 Totals  1.9% 8.3%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -0.2% 17.2% 1.9% -25.2% -1.5%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 61.6%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  79.0% 226.1% 68.9% 17.6% 97.9%
 Current Balance         44,749          81,528       42,222        29,403      197,903
 R3K Current Tranche  -0.4% 1.9% 8.3% 0.2% 2.5%
 R3K Overall Gain  58.0% 60.6% 44.3% 34.4% 49.3%
 R3K Balance         39,498          40,160       36,080        33,596      149,334
 Annualized IRR  17.2% 41.3% 17.7% 5.7% 25.2%


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
Current 48.57%        197,903            149,334

Clearly it is a marathon, not a sprint.  But since 12/1 I have given up  over 10% while index has been flat.

MFI Formula

While up a bit more than 2% this year, this is a portfolio that just seems to struggle.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,193
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,319
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,319
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
Current -2.66%          99,999            102,660

You can see I have been at it since 10/1/14 and I am almost exactly even-steven, 99,999.  Not a disaster, given broader market flailings, but not exactly what I hoped for.

7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $29.79 $1.71 -32.2% 0.1%
 CA  $29.34 $30.14 $0.75 5.3% 0.1%
 MSFT  $44.42 $55.65 $1.03 27.6% 0.1%
 QCOM  $62.95 $51.06 $1.44 -16.6% 0.1%
 VIAB  $64.75 $38.27 $1.20 -39.0% 0.1%
 Totals  -11.0% 0.1%
10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $29.79 $1.48 -15.1% 7.5%
 IQNT  $21.96 $16.71 $0.30 -22.5% 7.5%
 QCOM  $53.45 $51.06 $0.96 -2.7% 7.5%
 CSCO  $26.37 $27.90 $0.68 8.4% 7.5%
 CA  $27.30 $30.14 $0.50 12.2% 7.5%
 Totals  -3.9% 7.5%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $32.40 $0.73 9.3% 1.7%
 GME  $28.34 $31.79 $0.37 13.5% 1.7%
 IILG  $15.89 $13.71 $0.12 -13.0% 1.7%
 PPC  $22.22 $25.09 $0.00 12.9% 1.7%
 VIAB  $40.93 $38.27 $0.40 -5.5% 1.7%
 Totals  3.4% 1.7%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $51.94 $0.00 1.3% 1.4%
 HPQ  $12.10 $12.52 $0.00 3.4% 1.4%
 TIME  $15.24 $15.16 $0.00 -0.5% 1.4%
 IILG  $13.85 $13.71 $0.00 -1.0% 1.4%
 TSRA  $30.79 $29.82 $0.00 -3.1% 1.4%
 Totals  0.0% 1.4%

MFI Micro

This continues to be one of my better group of stocks.

12/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MGIC  $5.38 $6.40 $0.09 20.6% 1.5%
 BSQR  $6.00 $5.77 $0.00 -3.8% 1.5%
 SPCB  $4.52 $4.32 $0.00 -4.4% 1.5%
 WLDN  $8.64 $10.74 $0.00 24.3% 1.5%
 MNDO  $2.58 $2.04 $0.27 -10.5% 1.5%
 Totals               -   5.2% 1.5%

Dividends and Warrants

Great week here.  This portfolio is up a respectable 3.7% in 2016.  I am highly dependent on BAC starting to move back into the $4+ range.

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   Year End 2015 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $3.80 $0.00 -22.4% -27.5% -3.6%
 AOD  $7.65 $7.52 $1.28 15.1% 12.2% 15.3%
 JQC  $7.81 $7.79 $0.25 3.0% 2.6% 0.9%
 CSQ  $9.03 $9.69 $1.70 26.1% 22.9% 27.3%
 NTC  $12.07 $13.62 $1.45 24.9% 23.6% 16.1%
 TGONF  $10.24 $9.55 $1.36 6.5% 7.6% 8.3%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $38.95 $0.00 83.4% 78.1% 72.9%
 O  $23.19 $63.01 $18.17 250.1% 251.3% 205.7%
 OIBAX  $5.05 $5.73 $2.19 57.0% 56.8% 51.9%
 SJT  $8.76 $5.38 $0.18 -36.5% -39.3% -51.6%
 REXI  $5.59 $6.07 $0.13 10.8% 3.1% -2.8%
 Totals  6.5% 3.1% 6.2%

I think that is it for now.  More later this week!

1 comment:

John Carney said...

me, beating index by 3.0% on formula. hope for +6.0%