Good morning everyone. First signs of Spring here in New England. Unfortunately, we'll be getting a little wintry mix tomorrow and temps next week will dip into the teens. Weird. Could be some cold games in MLB opening week.
Funny, it did not seem like a very good week - but I was up 2.7%. Wednesday was a very good day. So I am up 1.8% for the year as we turn the page to Q2. I suppose if I am up 1.8% a quarter, that is pretty decent.
MFI Select
This approach continues to struggle in 2016 - down 6.5%. Looking back a week, I was down 8% - so I guess it was a good week.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| Current | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $35.84 | $0.14 | -28.6% | -0.4% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $2.79 | $0.00 | -32.4% | -0.4% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $30.91 | $0.80 | -18.6% | -0.4% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $56.97 | $0.00 | -8.5% | -0.4% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $14.38 | $0.00 | -38.8% | -0.4% |
| Totals | -25.4% | -0.4% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $15.53 | $0.00 | -16.8% | -1.0% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $7.76 | $0.00 | -16.9% | -1.0% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $28.69 | $0.42 | 0.6% | -1.0% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $22.81 | $0.42 | -8.2% | -1.0% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $24.10 | $0.26 | 20.9% | -1.0% |
| Totals | -4.1% | -1.0% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $17.61 | - | -48.2% | 1.2% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $47.00 | - | 36.3% | 1.2% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $26.12 | - | 37.6% | 1.2% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $22.75 | - | -3.6% | 1.2% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $6.38 | - | 59.9% | 1.2% |
| Totals | 16.4% | 1.2% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $22.75 | - | 15.8% | 7.7% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $50.88 | 0 | 13.7% | 7.7% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.02 | - | -17.6% | 7.7% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $14.38 | - | -6.3% | 7.7% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $25.65 | - | 6.8% | 7.7% |
| Totals | 2.5% | 7.7% |
Three of my four open tranches are underperforming. The May tranche is likely to be my worst ever. Luckily it is a marathon, not a sprint. VNCE took a bit a dive on earnings, but has bounced back a bit. I am a bit uncertain about them going forward.
MFI Formula
Not exactly "exciting" so far, but this approach is hanging in there. I did close and start a new tranche yesterday. So for the record, I will start by showing the closed tranches:
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.21 | $0.50 | 13.5% | -0.6% |
| BKE | $45.55 | $36.97 | $3.68 | -10.8% | -0.6% |
| CA | $27.87 | $27.30 | $1.00 | 1.5% | -0.6% |
| GME | $41.70 | $41.21 | $1.41 | 2.2% | -0.6% |
| NUS | $44.56 | $41.28 | $1.40 | -4.2% | -0.6% |
| Totals | 0.5% | -0.6% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $29.26 | $1.00 | -1.8% | -0.3% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $27.70 | $0.82 | 0.6% | -0.3% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $60.08 | $1.10 | 75.7% | -0.3% |
| GME | $34.21 | $28.71 | $1.44 | -11.9% | -0.3% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $17.78 | $0.60 | -7.5% | -0.3% |
| Totals | 11.0% | -0.3% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $26.33 | $0.80 | -15.2% | -1.1% |
| GME | $37.69 | $32.12 | $1.45 | -10.9% | -1.1% |
| KING | $15.85 | $18.00 | $0.00 | 13.6% | -1.1% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.24 | $0.16 | -0.8% | -1.1% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $25.40 | $0.00 | 12.1% | -1.1% |
| Totals | -0.2% | -1.1% |
So again, I am getting rich pretty slowly here. But all three closed tranches did beat the benchmark.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,193 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,319 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,319 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| Current | 0.34% | 102,371 | 102,035 |
Month by month shows I am in a dead head with just going with the benchmark. But I do like the trend, up 4.8% in 2016.
Here are the open tranches, with just a day of activity from the most recent:
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $34.64 | $1.71 | -21.7% | -0.5% |
| CA | $29.34 | $30.99 | $0.75 | 8.2% | -0.5% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $55.57 | $1.03 | 27.4% | -0.5% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $50.88 | $1.44 | -16.9% | -0.5% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $41.17 | $1.20 | -34.6% | -0.5% |
| Totals | -7.5% | -0.5% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $34.64 | $1.48 | -1.9% | 6.8% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $16.54 | $0.30 | -23.3% | 6.8% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $50.88 | $0.96 | -3.0% | 6.8% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $28.69 | $0.42 | 10.4% | 6.8% |
| CA | $27.30 | $30.99 | $0.50 | 15.3% | 6.8% |
| Totals | -0.5% | 6.8% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $32.12 | $0.28 | 6.9% | 1.1% |
| GME | $28.34 | $31.34 | $0.37 | 11.9% | 1.1% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $13.78 | $0.12 | -12.5% | 1.1% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $26.12 | $0.00 | 17.6% | 1.1% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $41.17 | $0.40 | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Totals | 5.1% | 1.1% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $52.01 | $0.00 | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $12.26 | $0.00 | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $15.43 | $0.00 | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| IILG | $13.85 | $13.78 | $0.00 | -0.5% | 0.8% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $30.91 | $0.00 | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Totals | 0.8% | 0.8% |
The 12/31 tranche is off to a nice start. But 7/1 not so much. Just a quarter to run on that mess.
MFI Micro
I know last week I was starting to get a little frustrated for some outperformance. This group did quite well in the week, up almost 5%. WLDN was up about 20%. I think it was a contract they signed with ConEd.
| 12/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MGIC | $5.38 | $6.74 | $0.09 | 27.0% | 0.9% |
| BSQR | $6.00 | $6.08 | $0.00 | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| SPCB | $4.52 | $3.82 | $0.00 | -15.5% | 0.9% |
| WLDN | $8.64 | $10.48 | $0.00 | 21.3% | 0.9% |
| MNDO | $2.58 | $2.05 | $0.27 | -10.2% | 0.9% |
| Totals | - | 4.8% | 0.9% |
Dividends/Warrants
This portfolio is up 2.8% for the year. Does not feel like it though. But I have been pretty oppotune in some buys during 2016.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | Year End 2015 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $3.88 | $0.00 | -20.8% | -20.8% | -3.6% |
| AOD | $7.65 | $7.49 | $1.28 | 14.7% | 12.7% | 15.3% |
| JQC | $7.81 | $7.88 | $0.20 | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| CSQ | $9.03 | $9.57 | $1.63 | 24.0% | 21.6% | 27.3% |
| NTC | $12.07 | $13.26 | $1.39 | 21.4% | 20.1% | 16.1% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.85 | $1.36 | 9.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $39.00 | $0.00 | 83.6% | 80.4% | 72.9% |
| O | $23.07 | $62.23 | $18.03 | 248.0% | 244.6% | 205.7% |
| OIBAX | $5.05 | $5.70 | $2.19 | 56.4% | 55.3% | 51.9% |
| SJT | $8.76 | $5.02 | $0.18 | -40.6% | -38.9% | -51.6% |
| REXI | $5.59 | $5.89 | $0.07 | 6.5% | 1.3% | -2.8% |
| Totals | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% |
I added quite a bit to AOD, CSQ & REXI around 1/20. Those have turned out very well so far, up about 17%. My BAC Warrant buys have not been as good. I suspect I will be either very right or very wrong with those warrants. The great news is that between my adds in these stocks and the continual reinvesting of dividends - I am really starting to create an income stream that is becoming meaningful.
Other News
I did sell my additional GNW and DEPO during the week at some very nice gains. The only discretionary hold right now is some additional IQNT I bought on 3/22 at $14.81- so up 11.5% thus far.
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