Saturday, April 23, 2016

Weekend Update 4/23/16

Weekend Update

I am back home.  Really had a terrific week in the markets.  I was up 3% while the broader market was up 0.7%. That makes me up 4.9% for the year, which is starting to border on respectable.

One thing that has really helped in 2016 are the stocks I have bought/traded within the calendar year.  Using my secret multiplier, I have made in total $164,500 this year.  Of that gain, $126,700 is from stocks I have bought in 2016.

Here is a table showing my most successful purchases:

 Stock   Sum of Gain 
 JPM-WT                 25,319
 GNW                 20,250
 DEPO                 20,218
 REXI                 16,434
 BAC-WTA                 12,090
 CSQ                 10,200
 IQNT                    9,300
 NSH                    8,302
 AOD                    8,205
 QCOM                    6,815
 TERP                    6,021
 VEC                    4,883
 TDC                    4,209
 BRCD                    3,540
 HPQ                    2,092


The JPM warrants could have been much, much more successful  had I held a bit longer.  I sold second tranche at $17.50.  Today almost $5 higher. That would have doubled that gain. GNW on the other hand I optimized and sold at right time.  1/2 my DEPO position was a discretionary buy and I still hold. NSH was another great but that I sold was too early, it would be up another $20,000.  

MFI Select

I am down 3.6% for the year, not so hot - but I was down 5.4% last week... so gains were made.

5/6/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CBI  $50.38 $40.90 $0.14 -18.5% 0.8%
 PSDV  $4.12 $3.15 $0.00 -23.6% 0.8%
 TSRA  $38.94 $29.59 $0.80 -22.0% 0.8%
 KORS  $62.24 $51.60 $0.00 -17.1% 0.8%
 DEPO  $23.50 $17.54 $0.00 -25.4% 0.8%
 Totals  -21.3% 0.8%
8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $17.22 $0.00 -7.7% 0.2%
 SALE  $9.34 $8.62 $0.00 -7.7% 0.2%
 CSCO  $28.95 $28.15 $0.68 -0.4% 0.2%
 TGNA  $25.30 $23.84 $0.42 -4.1% 0.2%
 HSII  $20.14 $24.25 $0.26 21.7% 0.2%
 Totals  0.3% 0.2%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $20.37               -   -40.1% 2.5%
 SAVE  $34.48 $49.70               -   44.2% 2.5%
 PPC  $18.98 $23.95               -   26.2% 2.5%
 VEC  $23.60 $22.07               -   -6.5% 2.5%
 VNCE  $3.99 $6.68               -   67.4% 2.5%
 Totals  18.2% 2.5%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $22.07  $           -   12.4% 9.1%
 QCOM  $45.18 $52.64  $       0.48 17.6% 9.1%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.75  $           -   -28.6% 9.1%
 DEPO  $15.34 $17.54  $           -   14.3% 9.1%
 TDC  $24.02 $26.61  $           -   10.8% 9.1%
 Totals  5.3% 9.1%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  0.3% 18.2% 5.3% -21.3% 0.8%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 61.1%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  80.0% 228.9% 74.5% 23.8% 101.8%
 Current Balance         44,992          82,215       43,623        30,946      201,776
 R3K Current Tranche  0.2% 2.5% 9.1% 0.8% 3.2%
 R3K Overall Gain  59.0% 61.7% 45.3% 35.3% 50.3%
 R3K Balance         39,762          40,430       36,323        33,819      150,334
 Annualized IRR  17.3% 41.4% 18.8% 7.5% 25.6%

You can see th 5/6 tranche is still bad.  CBI did have a strong week and the tranche in total was up 5.3% during the week, but it is a big hole to dig out of.

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
Current 51.44%        201,776            150,334

MFI Formula

This approach is up 3.5% for the year, not exactly on fire overall as you'll see below.  I often wonder if I should simplify life and just end this approach.

7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $31.32 $1.71 -28.9% 0.8%
 CA  $29.34 $30.18 $0.75 5.4% 0.8%
 MSFT  $44.42 $51.78 $1.03 18.9% 0.8%
 QCOM  $62.95 $52.64 $1.44 -14.1% 0.8%
 VIAB  $64.75 $43.78 $1.20 -30.5% 0.8%
 Totals  -9.8% 0.8%
10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $31.32 $1.48 -10.9% 8.2%
 IQNT  $21.96 $16.20 $0.30 -24.9% 8.2%
 QCOM  $53.45 $52.64 $0.96 0.3% 8.2%
 CSCO  $26.37 $28.15 $0.68 9.3% 8.2%
 CA  $27.30 $30.18 $0.50 12.4% 8.2%
 Totals  -2.8% 8.2%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $33.22 $0.73 12.0% 2.4%
 GME  $28.34 $32.80 $0.37 17.0% 2.4%
 IILG  $15.89 $13.48 $0.12 -14.4% 2.4%
 PPC  $22.22 $23.95 $0.00 7.8% 2.4%
 VIAB  $40.93 $43.78 $0.40 8.0% 2.4%
 Totals  6.1% 2.4%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $50.66 $0.00 -1.2% 2.1%
 HPQ  $12.10 $12.61 $0.00 4.2% 2.1%
 TIME  $15.24 $15.07 $0.00 -1.1% 2.1%
 IILG  $13.85 $13.48 $0.00 -2.7% 2.1%
 TSRA  $30.79 $29.59 $0.00 -3.9% 2.1%
 Totals  -0.9% 2.1%

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,193
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,319
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,319
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
Current -2.28%        101,073            103,351

This table tells it all.  At it for 18 months.  I have made 1%. I will likely stay the course through end of 2016.

MFI Micro

This smaller tranche of smaller stocks continues to do pretty well.

12/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MGIC  $5.38 $6.67 $0.09 25.7% 2.2%
 BSQR  $6.00 $6.12 $0.00 2.0% 2.2%
 SPCB  $4.52 $4.30 $0.00 -4.9% 2.2%
 WLDN  $8.64 $10.79 $0.00 24.9% 2.2%
 MNDO  $2.58 $2.08 $0.27 -9.0% 2.2%
 Totals               -   7.7% 2.2%

Dividend & Warrants

These longer term holds have really been doing well of late.  It is now up  almost 9% this year. In part helped by some well-timed 2016 buys you see above in CSQ, AOD and REXI.

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   Year End 2015 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $4.37 $0.00 -10.8% -22.4% -3.6%
 AOD  $7.65 $7.59 $1.34 16.8% 15.1% 15.3%
 JQC  $7.81 $7.90 $0.25 4.4% 3.0% 0.9%
 CSQ  $9.03 $9.90 $1.70 28.4% 26.1% 27.3%
 NTC  $12.07 $13.62 $1.45 24.9% 24.9% 16.1%
 TGONF  $10.24 $9.65 $1.36 7.5% 6.5% 8.3%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $37.80 $0.00 78.0% 83.4% 72.9%
 O  $23.19 $59.37 $18.17 234.4% 250.1% 205.7%
 OIBAX  $5.05 $5.76 $2.19 57.6% 57.0% 51.9%
 SJT  $8.76 $6.35 $0.18 -25.4% -36.5% -51.6%
 REXI  $5.59 $6.48 $0.13 18.1% 10.8% -2.8%
 Totals  11.5% 6.5% 6.2%

SJT and BAC really came back strongly.


2 comments:

John Carney said...

I am up 7.5% vs index of 3.3% for +4.2%. hope for +6% which would equal or beat the Motley fool numbers. That would be huge in my view!

John Carney said...

Looked at the Russell 3K being up $194,942 vs Dividend approach being up $366,498 and used 10 year returns.

Answer is +6.9% for Russell 3K vs Dividend approach up 13.9% for an out performance of +7.0% for a ten year period.

So +6.0% seems to be a reasonable goal.