Saturday, April 09, 2016

Weekend Update 4/9/16

Weekend Update

My portfolio is definitely looking for direction. After a very strong week to finish March, the first week of April left a lot to be desired as I was down about 2%.

PERI was down 15%, KORS down 10%, BKE down 17% and BAC warrants down 10%.  Those were certainly some key drivers.  I did have a nice pop on DEPO as an activist got involved (Activist Sinks Teeth Into Depomed, Send Shares Soaring 12% Today).  I also rebought BRCD for a trade at $9.07 after they dropped 13% when they announced acquisition of Ruckus (Brocade-Ruckus $1.2 Billion Deal Fails to Impress).

MFI Select

This portfolio continues to struggle in 2016, down over 7% (from 6.5% a week ago).  SALE got a nice pop as well as DEPO, but seems to be more bad news than good.  The May tranche is less than a month away from being done.

5/6/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CBI  $50.38 $34.30 $0.14 -31.6% -1.6%
 PSDV  $4.12 $2.95 $0.00 -28.5% -1.6%
 TSRA  $38.94 $30.31 $0.80 -20.1% -1.6%
 KORS  $62.24 $51.19 $0.00 -17.8% -1.6%
 DEPO  $23.50 $16.95 $0.00 -27.9% -1.6%
 Totals  -25.2% -1.6%
8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $16.18 $0.00 -13.3% -2.2%
 SALE  $9.34 $8.51 $0.00 -8.9% -2.2%
 CSCO  $28.95 $27.69 $0.68 -2.0% -2.2%
 TGNA  $25.30 $22.68 $0.42 -8.7% -2.2%
 HSII  $20.14 $24.19 $0.26 21.4% -2.2%
 Totals  -2.3% -2.2%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $18.79               -   -44.8% 0.0%
 SAVE  $34.48 $46.72               -   35.5% 0.0%
 PPC  $18.98 $25.53               -   34.5% 0.0%
 VEC  $23.60 $22.15               -   -6.1% 0.0%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.87               -   47.1% 0.0%
 Totals  13.3% 0.0%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $22.15               -   12.8% 6.4%
 QCOM  $45.18 $50.56                0 13.0% 6.4%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.71               -   -30.2% 6.4%
 DEPO  $15.34 $16.95               -   10.5% 6.4%
 TDC  $24.02 $24.94               -   3.8% 6.4%
 Totals  2.0% 6.4%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -2.3% 13.3% 2.0% -25.2% -2.9%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 61.0%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  75.2% 215.0% 69.0% 17.7% 94.2%
 Current Balance         43,806          78,749       42,245        29,430      194,230
 R3K Current Tranche  -2.2% 0.0% 6.4% -1.6% 0.7%
 R3K Overall Gain  55.2% 57.8% 41.7% 32.0% 46.7%
 R3K Balance         38,798          39,446       35,434        33,003      146,682
 Annualized IRR  16.6% 40.1% 17.9% 5.7% 24.2%


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
Current 47.55%        194,230            146,682

MFI Formula

This is the discouraging portfolio. I felt like I was  making some headway, but BBY, GME and BKE continue to disappoint. Retail, Bah!

7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $28.82 $1.71 -34.3% -1.7%
 CA  $29.34 $30.04 $0.75 4.9% -1.7%
 MSFT  $44.42 $54.42 $1.03 24.8% -1.7%
 QCOM  $62.95 $50.56 $1.44 -17.4% -1.7%
 VIAB  $64.75 $37.99 $1.20 -39.5% -1.7%
 Totals  -12.3% -1.7%
10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $28.82 $1.48 -17.7% 5.6%
 IQNT  $21.96 $16.38 $0.30 -24.0% 5.6%
 QCOM  $53.45 $50.56 $0.96 -3.6% 5.6%
 CSCO  $26.37 $27.69 $0.68 7.6% 5.6%
 CA  $27.30 $30.04 $0.50 11.9% 5.6%
 Totals  -5.2% 5.6%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $30.11 $0.73 1.7% -0.1%
 GME  $28.34 $29.49 $0.37 5.4% -0.1%
 IILG  $15.89 $13.29 $0.12 -15.6% -0.1%
 PPC  $22.22 $25.53 $0.00 14.9% -0.1%
 VIAB  $40.93 $37.99 $0.40 -6.2% -0.1%
 Totals  0.0% -0.1%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $51.14 $0.00 -0.3% -0.4%
 HPQ  $12.10 $12.06 $0.00 -0.4% -0.4%
 TIME  $15.24 $14.57 $0.00 -4.4% -0.4%
 IILG  $13.85 $13.29 $0.00 -4.1% -0.4%
 TSRA  $30.79 $30.31 $0.00 -1.5% -0.4%
 Totals  -2.1% -0.4%

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,193
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,319
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,319
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
Current -2.94%          97,888            100,830
That is a big drop in the past week - 102,371 t0 97,888. feels like between 4 and 5%.

MFI Micro

SPCB was supposed to  announce earnings and then postponed.  I suspect that bodes badly,  we shall see (SuperCom Postpones Earnings Release and Conference Call for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015).  They will now announce on Monday.

12/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MGIC  $5.38 $6.53 $0.09 23.0% -0.3%
 BSQR  $6.00 $5.81 $0.00 -3.2% -0.3%
 SPCB  $4.52 $3.81 $0.00 -15.7% -0.3%
 WLDN  $8.64 $10.25 $0.00 18.6% -0.3%
 MNDO  $2.58 $2.02 $0.27 -11.3% -0.3%
 Totals               -   2.3% -0.3%

Warrants & Dividends

I continue to collect a lot of dividends. But this portfolio is also struggling.

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   Year End 2015 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $3.55 $0.00 -27.5% -20.8% -3.6%
 AOD  $7.65 $7.30 $1.28 12.2% 14.7% 15.3%
 JQC  $7.81 $7.81 $0.20 2.6% 3.4% 0.9%
 CSQ  $9.03 $9.38 $1.71 22.9% 24.0% 27.3%
 NTC  $12.07 $13.52 $1.39 23.6% 21.4% 16.1%
 TGONF  $10.24 $9.66 $1.36 7.6% 9.5% 8.3%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $37.82 $0.00 78.1% 83.6% 72.9%
 O  $23.07 $63.00 $18.03 251.3% 248.0% 205.7%
 OIBAX  $5.05 $5.72 $2.19 56.8% 56.4% 51.9%
 SJT  $8.76 $5.13 $0.18 -39.3% -40.6% -51.6%
 REXI  $5.59 $5.70 $0.07 3.1% 6.5% -2.8%
 Totals  3.1% 5.5% 6.2%

You can see the decline from 5.5% to 3.1% during the week.  BAC WTA just can not get traction  - no love for big banks.



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