Weekend Update 4/23/16

Weekend Update

I am back home.  Really had a terrific week in the markets.  I was up 3% while the broader market was up 0.7%. That makes me up 4.9% for the year, which is starting to border on respectable.

One thing that has really helped in 2016 are the stocks I have bought/traded within the calendar year.  Using my secret multiplier, I have made in total $164,500 this year.  Of that gain, $126,700 is from stocks I have bought in 2016.

Here is a table showing my most successful purchases:

Stock	Sum of Gain
JPM-WT	25,319
GNW	20,250
DEPO	20,218
REXI	16,434
BAC-WTA	12,090
CSQ	10,200
IQNT	9,300
NSH	8,302
AOD	8,205
QCOM	6,815
TERP	6,021
VEC	4,883
TDC	4,209
BRCD	3,540
HPQ	2,092

The JPM warrants could have been much, much more successful  had I held a bit longer.  I sold second tranche at $17.50.  Today almost $5 higher. That would have doubled that gain. GNW on the other hand I optimized and sold at right time.  1/2 my DEPO position was a discretionary buy and I still hold. NSH was another great but that I sold was too early, it would be up another $20,000.  

MFI Select

I am down 3.6% for the year, not so hot - but I was down 5.4% last week... so gains were made.

5/6/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CBI	$50.38	$40.90	$0.14	-18.5%	0.8%
PSDV	$4.12	$3.15	$0.00	-23.6%	0.8%
TSRA	$38.94	$29.59	$0.80	-22.0%	0.8%
KORS	$62.24	$51.60	$0.00	-17.1%	0.8%
DEPO	$23.50	$17.54	$0.00	-25.4%	0.8%
Totals				-21.3%	0.8%
8/17/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VDSI	$18.66	$17.22	$0.00	-7.7%	0.2%
SALE	$9.34	$8.62	$0.00	-7.7%	0.2%
CSCO	$28.95	$28.15	$0.68	-0.4%	0.2%
TGNA	$25.30	$23.84	$0.42	-4.1%	0.2%
HSII	$20.14	$24.25	$0.26	21.7%	0.2%
Totals				0.3%	0.2%
11/15/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
LCI	$34.01	$20.37	-	-40.1%	2.5%
SAVE	$34.48	$49.70	-	44.2%	2.5%
PPC	$18.98	$23.95	-	26.2%	2.5%
VEC	$23.60	$22.07	-	-6.5%	2.5%
VNCE	$3.99	$6.68	-	67.4%	2.5%
Totals				18.2%	2.5%
2/1/2016	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VEC	$19.64	$22.07	$           -	12.4%	9.1%
QCOM	$45.18	$52.64	$       0.48	17.6%	9.1%
PERI	$2.45	$1.75	$           -	-28.6%	9.1%
DEPO	$15.34	$17.54	$           -	14.3%	9.1%
TDC	$24.02	$26.61	$           -	10.8%	9.1%
Totals				5.3%	9.1%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	0.3%	18.2%	5.3%	-21.3%	0.8%
Previous Tranche	11.2%	69.4%	-14.3%	18.3%	61.1%
Tranche -2	41.4%	14.2%	8.5%	33.0%	24.3%
Tranche -3	14.1%	43.7%	78.3%	0.0%	0.0%
MFI Overall Gain	80.0%	228.9%	74.5%	23.8%	101.8%
Current Balance	44,992	82,215	43,623	30,946	201,776
R3K Current Tranche	0.2%	2.5%	9.1%	0.8%	3.2%
R3K Overall Gain	59.0%	61.7%	45.3%	35.3%	50.3%
R3K Balance	39,762	40,430	36,323	33,819	150,334
Annualized IRR	17.3%	41.4%	18.8%	7.5%	25.6%

You can see th 5/6 tranche is still bad.  CBI did have a strong week and the tranche in total was up 5.3% during the week, but it is a big hole to dig out of.

Date	Differential	MFI Value	R3K Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765	101,965
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798	104,575
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594	104,856
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881	105,114
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804	107,234
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423	108,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831	111,085
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888	110,597
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799	117,889
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536	114,079
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655	118,990
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514	123,764
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105	126,405
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138	130,503
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619	125,918
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116	132,458
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991	132,616
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428	132,779
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001	135,559
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971	138,740
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054	135,922
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792	141,892
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321	138,944
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810	142,666
12/1/2014	30.22%	176,420	146,198
1/1/2015	28.17%	174,306	146,140
2/1/2015	20.63%	162,833	142,201
3/1/2015	25.15%	175,476	150,324
4/1/2015	29.95%	178,565	148,612
5/1/2015	37.31%	186,655	149,348
6/1/2015	51.53%	202,897	151,371
7/1/2015	62.69%	211,437	148,743
8/1/2015	40.75%	192,117	151,369
9/1/2015	36.41%	178,603	142,195
10/1/2015	43.12%	181,175	138,052
11/1/2015	69.02%	217,959	148,936
12/1/2015	73.49%	223,435	149,946
1/1/2016	63.33%	209,514	146,186
2/1/2016	49.49%	187,428	137,934
3/1/2016	56.48%	194,415	137,934
4/1/2016	47.34%	195,770	148,430
Current	51.44%	201,776	150,334

MFI Formula

This approach is up 3.5% for the year, not exactly on fire overall as you'll see below.  I often wonder if I should simplify life and just end this approach.

7/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$46.45	$31.32	$1.71	-28.9%	0.8%
CA	$29.34	$30.18	$0.75	5.4%	0.8%
MSFT	$44.42	$51.78	$1.03	18.9%	0.8%
QCOM	$62.95	$52.64	$1.44	-14.1%	0.8%
VIAB	$64.75	$43.78	$1.20	-30.5%	0.8%
Totals				-9.8%	0.8%
10/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$36.83	$31.32	$1.48	-10.9%	8.2%
IQNT	$21.96	$16.20	$0.30	-24.9%	8.2%
QCOM	$53.45	$52.64	$0.96	0.3%	8.2%
CSCO	$26.37	$28.15	$0.68	9.3%	8.2%
CA	$27.30	$30.18	$0.50	12.4%	8.2%
Totals				-2.8%	8.2%
12/31/15 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BBY	$30.31	$33.22	$0.73	12.0%	2.4%
GME	$28.34	$32.80	$0.37	17.0%	2.4%
IILG	$15.89	$13.48	$0.12	-14.4%	2.4%
PPC	$22.22	$23.95	$0.00	7.8%	2.4%
VIAB	$40.93	$43.78	$0.40	8.0%	2.4%
Totals				6.1%	2.4%
4/1/16 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CALM	$51.27	$50.66	$0.00	-1.2%	2.1%
HPQ	$12.10	$12.61	$0.00	4.2%	2.1%
TIME	$15.24	$15.07	$0.00	-1.1%	2.1%
IILG	$13.85	$13.48	$0.00	-2.7%	2.1%
TSRA	$30.79	$29.59	$0.00	-3.9%	2.1%
Totals				-0.9%	2.1%

Date	Differential	Value	R3K Value
10/1/2014	0.00%	100,000	100,000
11/1/2014	1.63%	102,288	100,658
12/1/2014	0.30%	101,375	101,075
1/1/2015	-0.33%	100,664	100,995
2/1/2015	1.67%	101,281	99,611
3/1/2015	3.62%	106,073	102,454
4/1/2015	5.09%	106,781	101,695
5/1/2015	5.78%	107,859	102,077
6/1/2015	5.08%	108,213	103,134
7/1/2015	4.82%	106,423	101,604
8/1/2015	3.71%	107,112	103,404
9/1/2015	4.38%	101,523	97,139
10/1/2015	6.39%	100,703	94,312
11/1/2015	2.93%	104,835	101,907
12/1/2015	-3.48%	99,443	102,926
1/1/2016	-3.36%	96,830	100,193
2/1/2016	-0.72%	93,797	94,319
3/1/2016	4.07%	98,588	94,319
4/1/2016	0.34%	102,371	101,548
Current	-2.28%	101,073	103,351

This table tells it all.  At it for 18 months.  I have made 1%. I will likely stay the course through end of 2016.

MFI Micro

This smaller tranche of smaller stocks continues to do pretty well.

12/15/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
MGIC	$5.38	$6.67	$0.09	25.7%	2.2%
BSQR	$6.00	$6.12	$0.00	2.0%	2.2%
SPCB	$4.52	$4.30	$0.00	-4.9%	2.2%
WLDN	$8.64	$10.79	$0.00	24.9%	2.2%
MNDO	$2.58	$2.08	$0.27	-9.0%	2.2%
Totals			-	7.7%	2.2%

Dividend & Warrants

These longer term holds have really been doing well of late.  It is now up  almost 9% this year. In part helped by some well-timed 2016 buys you see above in CSQ, AOD and REXI.

Div and Warrants	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	Pct Gain Last Week	Year End 2015
BAC-WTA	$4.90	$4.37	$0.00	-10.8%	-22.4%	-3.6%
AOD	$7.65	$7.59	$1.34	16.8%	15.1%	15.3%
JQC	$7.81	$7.90	$0.25	4.4%	3.0%	0.9%
CSQ	$9.03	$9.90	$1.70	28.4%	26.1%	27.3%
NTC	$12.07	$13.62	$1.45	24.9%	24.9%	16.1%
TGONF	$10.24	$9.65	$1.36	7.5%	6.5%	8.3%
HIG-WT	$21.24	$37.80	$0.00	78.0%	83.4%	72.9%
O	$23.19	$59.37	$18.17	234.4%	250.1%	205.7%
OIBAX	$5.05	$5.76	$2.19	57.6%	57.0%	51.9%
SJT	$8.76	$6.35	$0.18	-25.4%	-36.5%	-51.6%
REXI	$5.59	$6.48	$0.13	18.1%	10.8%	-2.8%
Totals				11.5%	6.5%	6.2%

SJT and BAC really came back strongly.