Weekend Update - 4/16/16

Weekend Update

At JFK, waiting for flight. I'll try to get out a quick weekend update. Funny, it did not feel like a good week, but I was up over 2%. So that gets me out of the red and up 1.85% for the year.

I saw a hedge fund letter that said while 2015 was a tough roller coaster year, that 2016 would make 2015 look like a kids ride at Disneyworld.  That feel on point so far.  Down 12% right out of the gate, now up slightly.  But probably a good idea not to get too comfortable.

MFI Select

This group of 20 stocks are still  down 5.4% on the year.  They can't get any traction and my write up yesterday of the May 2015 tranche was very typical.  Even my recent February tranche is being drug down by PERI, which is a stock I really believe in.  Time will tell.

5/6/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CBI	$50.38	$35.66	$0.14	-28.9%	0.2%
PSDV	$4.12	$2.96	$0.00	-28.2%	0.2%
TSRA	$38.94	$29.82	$0.80	-21.4%	0.2%
KORS	$62.24	$52.29	$0.00	-16.0%	0.2%
DEPO	$23.50	$16.06	$0.00	-31.7%	0.2%
Totals				-25.2%	0.2%
8/17/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VDSI	$18.66	$17.05	$0.00	-8.6%	-0.4%
SALE	$9.34	$8.41	$0.00	-9.9%	-0.4%
CSCO	$28.95	$27.90	$0.68	-1.3%	-0.4%
TGNA	$25.30	$23.62	$0.42	-5.0%	-0.4%
HSII	$20.14	$24.69	$0.26	23.9%	-0.4%
Totals				-0.2%	-0.4%
11/15/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
LCI	$34.01	$18.10	-	-46.8%	1.9%
SAVE	$34.48	$50.11	-	45.4%	1.9%
PPC	$18.98	$25.09	-	32.2%	1.9%
VEC	$23.60	$22.26	-	-5.7%	1.9%
VNCE	$3.99	$6.43	-	61.2%	1.9%
Totals				17.2%	1.9%
2/1/2016	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VEC	$19.64	$22.26	-	13.4%	8.3%
QCOM	$45.18	$51.06	0.48	14.1%	8.3%
PERI	$2.45	$1.83	-	-25.3%	8.3%
DEPO	$15.34	$16.06	-	4.7%	8.3%
TDC	$24.02	$24.69	-	2.8%	8.3%
Totals				1.9%	8.3%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	-0.2%	17.2%	1.9%	-25.2%	-1.5%
Previous Tranche	11.2%	69.4%	-14.3%	18.3%	61.6%
Tranche -2	41.4%	14.2%	8.5%	33.0%	24.3%
Tranche -3	14.1%	43.7%	78.3%	0.0%	0.0%
MFI Overall Gain	79.0%	226.1%	68.9%	17.6%	97.9%
Current Balance	44,749	81,528	42,222	29,403	197,903
R3K Current Tranche	-0.4%	1.9%	8.3%	0.2%	2.5%
R3K Overall Gain	58.0%	60.6%	44.3%	34.4%	49.3%
R3K Balance	39,498	40,160	36,080	33,596	149,334
Annualized IRR	17.2%	41.3%	17.7%	5.7%	25.2%

Date	Differential	MFI Value	R3K Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765	101,965
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798	104,575
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594	104,856
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881	105,114
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804	107,234
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423	108,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831	111,085
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888	110,597
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799	117,889
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536	114,079
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655	118,990
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514	123,764
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105	126,405
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138	130,503
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619	125,918
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116	132,458
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991	132,616
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428	132,779
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001	135,559
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971	138,740
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054	135,922
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792	141,892
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321	138,944
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810	142,666
12/1/2014	30.22%	176,420	146,198
1/1/2015	28.17%	174,306	146,140
2/1/2015	20.63%	162,833	142,201
3/1/2015	25.15%	175,476	150,324
4/1/2015	29.95%	178,565	148,612
5/1/2015	37.31%	186,655	149,348
6/1/2015	51.53%	202,897	151,371
7/1/2015	62.69%	211,437	148,743
8/1/2015	40.75%	192,117	151,369
9/1/2015	36.41%	178,603	142,195
10/1/2015	43.12%	181,175	138,052
11/1/2015	69.02%	217,959	148,936
12/1/2015	73.49%	223,435	149,946
1/1/2016	63.33%	209,514	146,186
2/1/2016	49.49%	187,428	137,934
3/1/2016	56.48%	194,415	137,934
4/1/2016	47.34%	195,770	148,430
Current	48.57%	197,903	149,334

Clearly it is a marathon, not a sprint.  But since 12/1 I have given up  over 10% while index has been flat.

MFI Formula

While up a bit more than 2% this year, this is a portfolio that just seems to struggle.

Date	Differential	Value	R3K Value
10/1/2014	0.00%	100,000	100,000
11/1/2014	1.63%	102,288	100,658
12/1/2014	0.30%	101,375	101,075
1/1/2015	-0.33%	100,664	100,995
2/1/2015	1.67%	101,281	99,611
3/1/2015	3.62%	106,073	102,454
4/1/2015	5.09%	106,781	101,695
5/1/2015	5.78%	107,859	102,077
6/1/2015	5.08%	108,213	103,134
7/1/2015	4.82%	106,423	101,604
8/1/2015	3.71%	107,112	103,404
9/1/2015	4.38%	101,523	97,139
10/1/2015	6.39%	100,703	94,312
11/1/2015	2.93%	104,835	101,907
12/1/2015	-3.48%	99,443	102,926
1/1/2016	-3.36%	96,830	100,193
2/1/2016	-0.72%	93,797	94,319
3/1/2016	4.07%	98,588	94,319
4/1/2016	0.34%	102,371	101,548
Current	-2.66%	99,999	102,660

You can see I have been at it since 10/1/14 and I am almost exactly even-steven, 99,999.  Not a disaster, given broader market flailings, but not exactly what I hoped for.

7/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$46.45	$29.79	$1.71	-32.2%	0.1%
CA	$29.34	$30.14	$0.75	5.3%	0.1%
MSFT	$44.42	$55.65	$1.03	27.6%	0.1%
QCOM	$62.95	$51.06	$1.44	-16.6%	0.1%
VIAB	$64.75	$38.27	$1.20	-39.0%	0.1%
Totals				-11.0%	0.1%
10/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$36.83	$29.79	$1.48	-15.1%	7.5%
IQNT	$21.96	$16.71	$0.30	-22.5%	7.5%
QCOM	$53.45	$51.06	$0.96	-2.7%	7.5%
CSCO	$26.37	$27.90	$0.68	8.4%	7.5%
CA	$27.30	$30.14	$0.50	12.2%	7.5%
Totals				-3.9%	7.5%
12/31/15 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BBY	$30.31	$32.40	$0.73	9.3%	1.7%
GME	$28.34	$31.79	$0.37	13.5%	1.7%
IILG	$15.89	$13.71	$0.12	-13.0%	1.7%
PPC	$22.22	$25.09	$0.00	12.9%	1.7%
VIAB	$40.93	$38.27	$0.40	-5.5%	1.7%
Totals				3.4%	1.7%
4/1/16 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CALM	$51.27	$51.94	$0.00	1.3%	1.4%
HPQ	$12.10	$12.52	$0.00	3.4%	1.4%
TIME	$15.24	$15.16	$0.00	-0.5%	1.4%
IILG	$13.85	$13.71	$0.00	-1.0%	1.4%
TSRA	$30.79	$29.82	$0.00	-3.1%	1.4%
Totals				0.0%	1.4%

MFI Micro

This continues to be one of my better group of stocks.

12/15/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
MGIC	$5.38	$6.40	$0.09	20.6%	1.5%
BSQR	$6.00	$5.77	$0.00	-3.8%	1.5%
SPCB	$4.52	$4.32	$0.00	-4.4%	1.5%
WLDN	$8.64	$10.74	$0.00	24.3%	1.5%
MNDO	$2.58	$2.04	$0.27	-10.5%	1.5%
Totals			-	5.2%	1.5%

Dividends and Warrants

Great week here.  This portfolio is up a respectable 3.7% in 2016.  I am highly dependent on BAC starting to move back into the $4+ range.

Div and Warrants	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	Pct Gain Last Week	Year End 2015
BAC-WTA	$4.90	$3.80	$0.00	-22.4%	-27.5%	-3.6%
AOD	$7.65	$7.52	$1.28	15.1%	12.2%	15.3%
JQC	$7.81	$7.79	$0.25	3.0%	2.6%	0.9%
CSQ	$9.03	$9.69	$1.70	26.1%	22.9%	27.3%
NTC	$12.07	$13.62	$1.45	24.9%	23.6%	16.1%
TGONF	$10.24	$9.55	$1.36	6.5%	7.6%	8.3%
HIG-WT	$21.24	$38.95	$0.00	83.4%	78.1%	72.9%
O	$23.19	$63.01	$18.17	250.1%	251.3%	205.7%
OIBAX	$5.05	$5.73	$2.19	57.0%	56.8%	51.9%
SJT	$8.76	$5.38	$0.18	-36.5%	-39.3%	-51.6%
REXI	$5.59	$6.07	$0.13	10.8%	3.1%	-2.8%
Totals				6.5%	3.1%	6.2%

I think that is it for now.  More later this week!