Wow, the year has just flown by. Seems like we are getting a respectable Santa Claus rally this year, in the face of Congress and the President doing their best keystone cops imitation. My kids asked me what the Fiscal Cliff was last night. When you start explaining it, it really sounds bad.
But I am of the opinion, that whether we "avert" the fiscal cliff or not, we do have to have some form of austerity going forward. It may be on a softer glide path than the cliff, but spending needs to drop and revenues need to rise. Anyone looking at a chart of our deficit can figure that out. The scary ting (I have not heard anyone talk about this) is when Treasury rates start to go back more towards the norm of 4 to 5%. You multiply 5% times our national debt every year and you get a big cost to service each year.
I am scratching my head, just like the cop in the picture. So I continue to be pretty defensive in my portfolio.
Tale of Two Transactions
I did have a couple transactions this week. I sold my position in SD yesterday. This was a stock I had bought the previous week at $5.53 and then I sold yesterday for $7.13, a 29% gain in 7 trading days.SD was just a speculative play for me, and was not in either my dividend or MFI portfolios. I will note it closed yesterday at $7.29. So I may kick myself if continues to go up.
Then I tripled my position in AAPL. Regular readers will recall that I bought a stake for my MFI portfolio in my Nov 15th Tranche. I have now bought as well for my dividend portfolio. The purchase makes AAPL the second largest holding in my portfolio (behind CSCO). I am convinced that the selling is tax-driven. I do not think the business model is broken. AAPL is a virtual cash machine.
Update on Portfolio Performance
Here is a quick look at performance of my two portfolios I am tracking. The dividend portfolio continues to be strong. My MFI portfolio is in the black, but is being beaten by the Russell 3000 index.
| Current Portfolio | |||||||
| note - shares are multiplied by a factor | |||||||
| Stock | Shares | Avg Cost | Current Price | Dividends Received | Pct Change | R3K Change | Diff |
| AAPL | 100 | 533.66 | 533.25 | - | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| BHK | 2,229 | 12.74 | 14.89 | 2,404.92 | 25.3% | 5.4% | 20.0% |
| CSCO | 4,262 | 17.20 | 19.34 | 1,417.26 | 14.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% |
| CSQ | 5,482 | 8.28 | 9.93 | 5,241.56 | 31.6% | 21.5% | 10.0% |
| FCX | 1,100 | 32.17 | 31.70 | - | -1.5% | 0.6% | -2.1% |
| FSC | 2,777 | 9.80 | 10.65 | 1,795.26 | 15.2% | 4.6% | 10.6% |
| HFC | 1,117 | 34.15 | 43.64 | 2,363.76 | 34.0% | 3.2% | 30.8% |
| INTC | 1,974 | 20.99 | 20.16 | 1,998.36 | 0.8% | 15.3% | -14.5% |
| JPM | 1,673 | 35.22 | 42.56 | 992.36 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 15.9% |
| JQC | 4,164 | 9.11 | 9.83 | 4,384.77 | 19.5% | 6.1% | 13.4% |
| KMF | 1,845 | 21.97 | 28.36 | 3,637.01 | 38.0% | 18.2% | 19.9% |
| MPC | 582 | 43.99 | 60.70 | 546.09 | 40.1% | 4.3% | 35.9% |
| MSFT | 980 | 26.82 | 26.46 | 1,534.52 | 4.5% | 15.7% | -11.2% |
| O | 556 | 19.33 | 40.64 | 7,377.95 | 178.9% | 67.5% | 111.3% |
| OIBAX | 3,925 | 4.93 | 6.60 | 6,589.08 | 67.9% | 67.5% | 0.3% |
| PGR | 2,092 | 20.54 | 21.48 | 2,000.00 | 9.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% |
| PRE | 536 | 67.43 | 81.98 | 1,285.77 | 25.1% | 5.1% | 20.0% |
| PVD | 427 | 65.11 | 101.07 | 3,787.87 | 68.9% | 18.1% | 50.7% |
| SAI | 4,680 | 12.83 | 11.31 | 1,376.70 | -9.6% | 0.7% | -10.3% |
| STO | 1,040 | 23.82 | 24.13 | 1,121.00 | 5.8% | 20.5% | -14.6% |
| VIVHY | 2,296 | 16.70 | 21.30 | 3,749 | 37.3% | 3.7% | 33.6% |
| Total Open | 53,603 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.0% | |||
| Closed | 10.7% | 8.6% | 2.1% | ||||
| Combined | 13.8% | 9.0% | 4.7% | ||||
| IRR Since 12/31/10 | 14.7% | ||||||
| 2012 Gain | 22.0% | ||||||
| Estimated Dividends for Next 12 Months | |||||||
| Stock | Shares | Ann Dividend / Share | Yield | Projected Dividend | Sector | Worth | |
| AAPL | 100 | $ 10.80 | 2.0% | 1,080 | Consumer | 53,325 | |
| BHK | 2,229 | $ 0.88 | 5.9% | 1,953 | Bond | 33,190 | |
| CSCO | 4,262 | $ 0.56 | 2.9% | 2,387 | Tech | 82,407 | |
| CSQ | 5,482 | $ 0.84 | 8.5% | 4,605 | Hybrid | 54,440 | |
| FCX | 1,100 | $ 1.24 | 3.9% | 1,364 | Resources | 34,870 | |
| FSC | 2,777 | $ 1.15 | 10.8% | 3,192 | Hybrid | 29,575 | |
| HFC | 1,117 | $ 1.40 | 3.2% | 1,564 | Resources | 48,759 | |
| INTC | 1,974 | $ 0.92 | 4.6% | 1,816 | Tech | 39,791 | |
| JPM | 1,673 | $ 1.20 | 2.8% | 2,008 | Finance | 71,202 | |
| JQC | 4,164 | $ 0.80 | 8.1% | 3,331 | Hybrid | 40,929 | |
| KMF | 1,845 | $ 1.72 | 6.1% | 3,174 | Pipelines | 52,337 | |
| MPC | 582 | $ 1.40 | 2.3% | 815 | Resources | 35,342 | |
| MSFT | 980 | $ 0.80 | 3.0% | 784 | Tech | 25,914 | |
| O | 556 | $ 1.72 | 4.2% | 957 | Services | 22,603 | |
| OIBAX | 3,925 | $ 0.34 | 5.1% | 1,331 | Bond | 25,906 | |
| PGR | 2,092 | $ 0.41 | 1.9% | 858 | Insurance | 44,937 | |
| PRE | 536 | $ 2.56 | 3.1% | 1,372 | Insurance | 43,926 | |
| PVD | 427 | $ 7.65 | 7.6% | 3,266 | Finance | 43,152 | |
| SAI | 4,680 | $ 0.48 | 4.2% | 2,246 | Services | 52,929 | |
| STO | 1,040 | $ 0.98 | 4.1% | 1,019 | Resources | 25,091 | |
| VIVHY | 2,296 | $ 1.30 | 6.1% | 2,985 | Consumer | 48,905 | |
| Total | 4.6% | 42,106 | 909,530 | ||||
I am 27% in cash.
| August 15 Tranche | |||||
| Stock | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DLB | $34.43 | $33.83 | $0.00 | -1.7% | 2.1% |
| KFY | $13.98 | $14.82 | $0.00 | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| MSFT | $30.19 | $26.46 | $0.23 | -10.8% | 2.1% |
| NSU | $3.62 | $4.13 | $0.00 | 14.2% | 2.1% |
| UIS | $19.96 | $17.55 | $0.00 | -12.1% | 2.1% |
| Totals | -0.9% | 2.1% | |||
| November 15 Tranche | |||||
| Stock | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AAPL | $537.62 | $533.25 | $0.00 | -0.8% | 5.3% |
| ABC | $40.21 | $42.27 | $0.00 | 5.1% | 5.3% |
| LPS | $23.89 | $24.39 | $0.10 | 2.9% | 5.3% |
| VIAB | $49.12 | $53.55 | $0.00 | 9.0% | 5.3% |
| WU | $12.77 | $13.00 | $0.00 | 1.8% | 5.3% |
| Totals | 3.6% | 5.3% |
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