Thursday, December 06, 2012

Best and Worst Moves of 2012

The end of a year is always a good time to make lists and self-evaluate. While all-in-all I have had a successful investing year, I thought it might be instructive to look at my five smartest and dumbest moves of the year. I will start with the smartest, as it is more fun to pat yourself on the back. These are in no particular order.

1.  On February 22nd I sold out of my HPQ position at 28.87. I actually realized a 12% gain.  HPQ has dropped 52% since then. Can I hear a "whew"!
2.  On March 2nd I sold my FSUMF (an Australian iron ore company) at 6.04 cents for a 24% gain. They have dropped 35% since then.
3.  On October 11th, I sold my FCX position at 40.96, ending up with a fifteen percent gain. They have dropped 25% since then.
4.  On 2/22 I bought (not all my smart moves were sales) HFC and MPC, both stocks are up about 35% since then.
5.  On 4/18 I bought vivendi at 16.75 a share. They are up 39% since then.

Here are the dumb moves.

1.  On 2/3 I bought GNW at 8.50 a share. Shortly thereafter they axed their Australian ipo and are down 25% since (I still own that position).
2.  On 1/25 I bought nsu at 6.31 a share. They shortly thereafter lowered production estimates for 2012 and tanked. Making mattered worse, I then sold on 7/6 at 3.27 eating a 47% loss. Since then, they are back to 4.09.
3.  On 3/19 I sold my position of CVI at 27.34. I had bought them (see above number 4) at the same time I bought MPC and HFC. I ended up with an eight percent loss on CVI. Since then, they have skyrocketed up 63%.  I was thinking I was overweight refiners.  Turns out that would have been good. Aso I picked the wrong one t sell.
4.  On 7/16 I sold Nokia at 1.85, eating a 35% loss. Since then, they have shot up 102% to 3.80. I should have had more conviction, as my thesis was correct.
5.  On 11/12 I bought TROX one day before their earnings. I knew they would be poor, but thought it was already priced in. It wasn't. They dropped a bunch the next day and I took a one day haircut of 18%.

It is funny that some of my smartest moves were sales and some of my dumbest moves were sales. I think if you netted them out, I would have been better off not making the sales. Al in all, it has been a strong year, with my dividend portfolio and my overall portfolio up over twenty percent. But even though I am past middle aged, I am still always learning investing lessons from the teacher of the stock market.

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