Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Regression to the Mean

ORCT and TBL have been out-performing of late for me. Today it was regression to the mean for these two stocks. ORCT was down 4.7% and TBL was down 3.9%. Toss in ANF which was punished today for last night's earnings (dropped 6%) and you think I'd be in trouble, right? But the portfolio has 29 stocks, and can afford a couple downers.

Overall up 0.38% with BLDR and FDG leading the way. The Fed made some positive comments about housing which spiked BLDR up 4% (Fed minutes show concern on inflation).

Recent data from the housing sector gave comfort to "many" FOMC members. The data "suggested that the correction in the housing market was likely to be no more severe than they had previously expected and that the risk of an even larger contraction in this sector had ebbed."

Here is how my stocks have fared, updated as I am home again. I am now up 7.8%. Still down about $5k to benchmark.

Current Portfolio
Stock Cost Current Gain
PNCL $6.68 $9.71 45.4%
UST $39.36 $54.83 43.6%
ASEI $45.85 $65.30 42.4%
MSTR $94.36 $127.66 35.3%
TGIS $10.34 $13.53 32.7%
BBSI $19.56 $23.75 21.4%
MTEX $13.11 $15.45 19.1%
CHKE $37.55 $43.31 18.5%
ANF $61.13 $72.01 18.4%
MGLN $38.34 $45.08 17.6%
ELX $17.85 $20.97 17.5%
VPHM $11.80 $13.18 11.7%
PGI $7.71 $8.52 10.5%
BLDR $15.91 $17.00 6.9%
FTO $28.76 $30.48 6.2%
ISNS $13.17 $13.00 -1.3%
DLX $26.36 $25.00 -2.7%
RAIL $58.18 $55.92 -3.8%
PTEN $26.72 $25.52 -4.0%
ORCT $11.83 $11.05 -6.6%
TBL $34.50 $32.06 -7.1%
KG $17.31 $15.99 -7.6%
PACR $32.53 $29.48 -8.5%
TRLG $17.02 $15.33 -9.9%
PONR $30.98 $27.85 -10.1%
HW $33.04 $23.82 -27.9%
OVTI $27.79 $18.23 -34.4%
FDG $34.03 $20.45 -35.2%
EZEN $2.84 $1.65 -41.8%




Current Gain/Loss ($) $14,652
Current Gain/Loss (%) 4.5%
Sold Gain/Loss ($) $10,050
Sold Gain/Loss (%) 25.0%
Total Gain/Loss ($) $24,702
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($) $29,800
Annual IRR 14.8%
Total Gain/Loss (%) 7.8%




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