Friday, November 17, 2006

Getting Frothy?

Wow, the market seems to just keep going up. Don't know about you, but that makes me a wee bit nervous. My MFI portfolio had another steller week.

I wonder what impact the USAir bid for Delta will have on companies like PNCL? If you are a feeder airline supporting a legacy carrier and that carrier gets bought... where does that leave you? I suppose that the capacity is still needed.

Power of predicting - Readers may recall that 6 weeks ago I rated all my stocks a "1", "2" or "3" with a "1" being the stocks that I would buy more of, a "3" are stocks I would sell into a rally. 6 weeks is not enough to really say how well I did but here is how they have done:
  • 1: +9.8%
  • 2: +10.2%
  • 3: -0.5%
The bad stocks in the "3s" were TRLG & MTEX. I did think they had gone up too much. I will probably do this once a quarter as I find it interesting and useful to think hard about your stocks. DLX has been the best performer (a "2") going from $17.00 to $24.87 plus paying a 25 cent dividend to boot.

Now for the weekly charts:

Current Portfolio
Stock Cost Current Gain
PNCL $6.68 $9.82 47.0%
UST $39.36 $55.61 45.6%
ASEI $45.85 $65.36 42.6%
TGIS $10.34 $13.61 33.5%
MSTR $94.36 $124.89 32.4%
BBSI $19.56 $23.81 21.7%
CHKE $37.55 $43.39 18.7%
ANF $61.13 $71.09 16.9%
ELX $17.85 $20.85 16.8%
MGLN $38.34 $44.39 15.8%
MTEX $13.11 $14.99 15.6%
VPHM $11.80 $13.51 14.5%
PGI $7.71 $8.60 11.5%
BLDR $15.91 $16.70 5.0%
FTO $28.76 $29.56 3.0%
ISNS $13.17 $13.00 -1.3%
DLX $26.36 $24.87 -2.2%
RAIL $58.18 $55.72 -4.2%
KG $17.31 $16.40 -5.3%
PTEN $26.72 $25.12 -5.5%
TBL $34.50 $31.93 -7.4%
PACR $32.53 $29.30 -9.0%
TRLG $17.02 $15.40 -9.5%
PONR $30.98 $27.91 -9.9%
ORCT $11.83 $10.56 -10.7%
HW $33.04 $23.21 -29.8%
FDG $34.03 $20.87 -34.0%
OVTI $27.79 $17.63 -36.6%
EZEN $2.84 $1.73 -39.0%




Current Gain/Loss ($) $13,531
Current Gain/Loss (%) 4.1%
Sold Gain/Loss ($) $10,050
Sold Gain/Loss (%) 25.0%
Total Gain/Loss ($) $23,581
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($) $30,312
Annual IRR 13.9%
Total Gain/Loss (%) 7.5%


1 comment:

jamie said...

i've been getting worried about the frothy market as well... cramer is saying get into it... i am thinking about the adage to sell when people are buying, and buy when people are selling... any further thoughts? (for my mfi holdings, i'll still follow 'the rules' - i'm thinking about things like your sidecar)