Saturday, July 08, 2006

The Stock that would be King

Anyone ever see "The Man Who Would be King?" Terrific movie set in the 19th century in Pakistan and Afghanistan starring Sean Connery and Michael Caine as two British soldiers who perform a "miracle" and are perceived as King/Gods.

I have a stock that would be king, King Pharmaceuticals (KG). It was part of the group of stocks I bought at the end of May that have stink, stank and stunk. (keeping my Grinch theme). I had argued for KG as I felt it was a defensive stock. In a sense I was right as it has beaten the other stocks:

Stock Cost Current Gain
OVTI $27.79 $19.90 -28.4%
FDG $34.03 $31.90 -3.6%
KG $17.31 $17.31 0.0%
RAIL $58.18 $51.48 -11.5%
ORCT $11.83 $9.58 -19.0%

What caught my eye about KG is that is such a hated stock. Of the 12 analysts that follow it per Yahoo:


Current MonthLast MonthTwo Months AgoThree Months Ago
Strong Buy 1111
Buy 1111
Hold 7999
Sell 1000
Strong Sell 2211

That isn't much love. Does it bother me? Heck no! Not a single analyst was below "Hold" for 3M, yet they issued a warning Friday and dropped a ton. You saw yesterday where the C analyst for PCU was dead wrong not once, but twice. In fact, in a weird way I'd rather have the analysts all down on my stock. That means there is much more room for upgrades and less room for downgrades.

Looking back at my chart above of the 5 stocks I bought at the end of May. They are down an average of 12%! If I had not made those purchases when I made them, I'd be in the black. A little more than a month has passed, so the jury is still out on whether they're good or bad. None of them have crashed & burned at least, they just appear to be in "disfavor".

Cramer actually had some positive things to say about ANF on Friday, I like it when he agrees with me.

Cramer said his viewers need to think about buying Abercrombie & Fitch because he believes the value investors know what they are doing. Same-store sales don't matter, he said. Abercrombie & Fitch didn't change its guidance, its inventory is not too high and
Hollister, one of their franchises, is the "biggest force in teen retail," he said.

"Fashions might change, but Abercrombie & Fitch is here to stay," he said. "I like J.C. Penney, but if you have value on your mind, Abercrombie & Fitch might be for you."

Did he say "value on your mind?" The Mad Money king using the "V" word? Well knock me over.

Changing gears, I am really excited about ISNS. Here are some key points from last quarter:
  • Net income for the quarter increased 26.7% to $503,000
  • Revenues for the first quarter were $2,589,000, a 21.7% increase from the comparable period a year ago.
  • International sales were flat as we were unable to complete shipment of a large order for Korea in the quarter, which would have increased our sales substantially. The shipment was completed in April and will be reflected next quarter.
I think I am excited because they are a small company in what is a niche industry. Not to mention profitable. Well, I think I am going to call it a night. Check out my profile, I uploaded my picture. Go Italia!

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