Saturday, July 15, 2006

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

As Charlie Brown would comment after another tough loss in a baseball game, "the sun will still come up tomorrow". And so it is. I am awake early Saturday morning and (to borrow from the Beatles), "Here Comes the Sun".

I now only have 8 of my current 29 MFI stocks in the black. Let us look at these "uncommon values" (aka "the good").

  1. FTO has been the star performer, up 23%... I guess refiners are humming.
  2. UST is up 21%. "I want my Smokeless Tobacco!"
  3. PCU is up 17%. Copper prices are up a ton in past 18 months.
  4. NSS is up 15%, there are billions being spent on pipelines etc, so NSS will get it's share.
  5. MGLN (I'm Gellin') is up 13%, even in tough times, people need healthcare.
  6. CHKE is up 4%, not sure if it can hold on as retail is getting pounded.
  7. TGIS is up 3%, only up because it was up over 50% just a week ago. (quick, Q: how do you become a millionaire? A: First get a billion dollars...)
  8. TRLG is up a scant 1%... I guess baby does still have her blue jeans on. I suppose the TRLG jeans are so expensive ($170 when I looked) that the people who buy them are not going to be cutting back because of high gas prices.
I hate to list the Ugly, but the bottom 5 are:
  1. DLX down 44% (I was right to worry that not even granny uses paper checks any more).
  2. HW down 40% (profit warning and reducing of gov't subsidies sank HW).
  3. OVTI down 37% (don't get me started on them!)
  4. PTSC down 34% (I expected to see their earnings this past week?)
  5. TBL down 26% (those darned Europeans slapped a tax on the shoes).
Here is the overall listing from top to bottom:

Stock Cost Current Gain
NCOG $19.39 $27.05 39.5%
FTO $28.76 $35.23 22.6%
UST $39.36 $46.38 20.7%
PCU $78.13 $88.63 17.0%
NSS $45.89 $52.97 15.4%
MGLN $38.34 $43.68 13.9%
CHKE $37.55 $38.45 4.0%
TGIS $10.34 $10.56 3.3%
TRLG $17.02 $17.21 1.1%
ISNS $13.10 $13.00 -0.8%
KG $17.31 $16.85 -2.7%
PNCL $6.68 $6.48 -3.0%
PGI $7.71 $7.43 -3.6%
PACR $32.53 $30.46 -5.4%
IVII $10.93 $10.25 -6.2%
MTEX $13.11 $12.19 -6.4%
EZEN $2.84 $2.65 -6.5%
PTEN $27.74 $24.87 -10.1%
FDG $34.03 $29.52 -10.6%
ANF $61.13 $53.30 -12.5%
MSTR $94.36 $81.09 -14.1%
ELX $17.85 $14.95 -16.2%
RAIL $58.18 $46.77 -19.6%
PONR $32.97 $26.00 -21.1%
ORCT $11.83 $8.90 -24.8%
TBL $34.50 $25.53 -26.0%
PTSC $1.31 $0.86 -34.4%
OVTI $27.79 $17.57 -36.8%
HW $37.42 $22.36 -40.2%
DLX $26.36 $14.32 -44.2%




Total Gain/Loss
-$23,505
Benchmark Gain/Loss
-$11,784
Annual IRR

-31.0%
Small Gain/Loss

-5.61%
Large Gain/Loss

-5.67%


TRLG did update their arbitration with the Indigo Group (hopefully not a subsidiary of the Indigo Girls). I am not sure what the expectations were, but the stock jumped 3% in AH trading as Wall Street hates uncertainty, and I guess this ruling removes the uncertainty.

True Religion Apparel Provides Update on Arbitration Proceeding

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