Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Excusez-Moi


When I was in college, Steve Martin was considered the funniest guy around (ok, maybe Richard Pryor as well). His skits on SNL were watched by everyone. He had one number called "Excuse Me!". It became a national catch phrase, and so I borrow it (in French for respect for his role as Inspector Clousseau) today.

I did some soul searching over the recent market volatility and the fact that some stocks I like (ie OVTI & ORCT) have been pummeled over the past 6 weeks. I need to embrace the volatility. If the market did not mis-value stocks, then we should all buy an index fund and whistle past the graveyard.

So I have stopped hyper-venilating. Yes, I have had another sub-par day, but no I am not worried. The key is to recognize when the market has under-priced stocks. And then to pounce. Smart money guys like Charlie Munger keep billions in T bills just for such moments. I am not in that league, but I do have some dry powder and will likely look at this period a year from now and wish I had pounced even more.

Split personality update: The other day I mentioned that FTO had gone up like a rocket since splitting. Ironically, that same day Cramer spoke about the 4:1 split by HANS. Here is what he said:

Hansen Natural's (HANS - commentary - Cramer's Take) 4-for-1 split took effect on Monday, Cramer told a caller, but the near-term hit to the stock should only last a couple of sessions.

Cramer said when companies historically do 4-for-1 splits, people who own the stock usually sell one of the four shares in the first couple of days after the split.

He estimated the pain to last two more days. Although he emphasized that it's not set in stone that this will necessarily happen, he said history supports his belief that the stock will stabilize in the next couple of days after the market digests the company's additional shares.

Where does he get this stuff from? He is a bright guy, but I'd be amazed if people typically sell 25% of their holdings after a 4-for-1 split. That would just be stupid. At least he did state this will not necessarily happen. It didn't as HANS was up about 10% yesterday.

I am on Wall Street today (Wednesday AM). I think I'll go get a bagel and some strong coffee.

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