Thursday, July 20, 2006

It's Five O'Clock Somewhere

There is the latest graph... front center. I'll be gone tomorrow, so I figured I'd do my weekly update a day early. All I know that the past two weeks have not been kind to my portfolio, that is why I am glad that "It's 5 O'Clock Somewhere!". Not sure who sings that song, if it isn't Jimmy Buffett (no relation to the Oracle), then it should be.

As the market and my portfolio are doing so poorly, maybe we should take this time to list the top 10 drinking songs.

  1. She's Acting Single (and I'm Drinking Doubles)
  2. One Borbon, One Scotch and One Beer
  3. Margaritaville
  4. Tequilla Sunrise
  5. Whiskey River
  6. Friends in Low Places
  7. It's Five O'Clock Somewhere
  8. She's Got a Drinking Problem (that's me)
Ok, enough. I said I was right about FDG 2 days ago, but the market fully realized it today as BTU reported earnings and warned on possible lower coal prices. FDG sank another 6.8%. (my non MFI coal company CNX was down 7.3%... it was a bad day).

Luckily, don't have to harp on it being a bad day as I am going whitewater rafting tomorrow with my 2 oldest kids. It'll be a good day irregardless of Mr Market.

TGIS reported their earnings this evening (TGIS Announces Second Quarter Earnings). 43 cents a share. They are so small, there is no "estimate", but here are my takeaways:

  • Revenue up 17% Q o Q and 33% Y o Y
  • First 6 months earned 43 cents per share vs 28 cents last year
Wait, hold the presses. I am liking this less. They are really spinning things with words that make it sound good, but when you dig it looks so-so.

Income from continuing operations before income taxes for the second quarter was $4.1 million, or a 37% increase from the previous quarter and a 17% increase when compared to the second quarter of 2005.

I don't like this wording as they say "before taxes" to make things look better. After taxes they are actually down about 16%.

"For the first six months, we continued to increase revenue over comparable prior periods and generate a 54% increase in fully diluted EPS over last year, despite being fully taxed in 2006"

Again, note that here the numbers are after tax, but they use a 6 month comparison instead of 3 months. Hmmm, guess I shouldn't pick apart the announcement too mcuh... TGIS is after all my 2nd best stock. If they keep up the strong growth and watch expenses they should do well the next 9 months, but I fear they may sell-off a bit tomorrow, but heck... I am used to that!

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