Saturday, June 28, 2014

Weekend Update - June 28th, 2014

Weekend Update

Looks like our 4th straight magnificent summer weekend here in New England. Yeah, the winters are tough; but the summers: ooh-la-la.  It is a cool pleasant morning, about 60 degrees with the birds chirping.  It will be about 80 degrees with low humidity and sunny.

The week was pretty uneventful. I was down 23 basis point, all due to Tuesday which had our 1st 100 point drop in eons. The IWV was essentially flat, going from 117.68 to 117.61. Below is a listing of all my open stocks and how they fared for the week:

Index Stock 5/30/2014 Current Weekly Change Share
1 GTAT         18.30         18.26 -0.2% 9.7%
2 GNW         17.65         17.32 -1.9% 7.2%
3 TZA         14.20         14.14 -0.4% 5.4%
4 KLIC         14.23         14.24 0.1% 4.9%
5 BBEP         21.93         22.13 0.9% 4.8%
6 AOD           8.92            8.94 0.2% 4.8%
7 RPXC         17.29         17.47 1.0% 3.8%
8 ATVI         22.01         21.92 -0.4% 3.3%
9 NTC         12.53         12.62 0.7% 3.2%
10 CSQ         11.94         11.92 -0.2% 3.1%
11 TPVG         15.30         16.15 5.6% 3.1%
12 GPS         41.68         41.23 -1.1% 3.1%
13 FSC           9.47            9.80 3.5% 3.1%
14 RIOM           2.30            2.24 -2.6% 3.0%
15 TGONF         10.05         10.05 0.0% 2.7%
16 AVG         19.75         19.80 0.3% 2.5%
17 TLM         10.79         10.59 -1.9% 2.4%
18 SNDK      101.98       102.74 0.7% 2.2%
19 SYNA         91.35         89.38 -2.2% 2.1%
20 BAC-WTA           7.04            6.85 -2.7% 2.1%
21 AGX         34.33         36.88 7.4% 2.1%
22 NADL         10.94         10.50 -4.0% 2.0%
23 TSL         13.00         12.59 -3.2% 1.9%
24 TIME         23.06         24.25 5.2% 1.8%
25 KLAC         70.00         70.97 1.4% 1.8%
26 HIG-WT         27.44         27.06 -1.4% 1.7%
27 GA         11.78         11.85 0.6% 1.6%
28 WNR         41.72         38.38 -8.0% 1.5%
29 CSCO         24.83         24.70 -0.5% 1.2%
30 RCII         28.57         28.80 0.8% 1.1%
31 NSR         24.82         25.48 2.7% 1.1%
32 CA         28.73         28.55 0.0% 1.1%
33 CF      245.99       240.27 -2.3% 1.1%
34 FLR         78.52         76.88 -2.1% 1.0%
35 O         44.94         44.22 -1.6% 1.0%
36 OIBAX           6.17            6.19 2.2% 1.0%
37 EDV      102.36       104.56 1.8% 0.6%
38 -0.2%

As you can see, WNR was the biggest loser as the govt opening the door on exporting oil (Why Did Refiner Stocks Plunge This Week?) means that 100% of our oil does NOT have to pass through US refineries any more.  If this was not an MFI stock, I would sell WNR.  I will not be looking to buy refining companies for quite a while. My other loser was PM, which I sold mid-week.  They lowered guidance on a bunch of excuses, but at the end of the day people are not buying as many cigarettes and that is a longer term trend (Why Philip Morris (PM) Stock Continues To Decline Today). I decided to take my profit. My other sale during the week was RIOM, where I sold about 27% of my position as the stock had run from $1.65 to 2.38 in under a month.

MFI Portfolio

Despite the WNR struggle, my MFI portfolio continued to power upwards last week, albeit a little bit slower than recent weeks. They were really helps by AGX which is starting to look like one of my best stock picks of all time.  I know I thought hard about buying a second stake in November, but was worried that their February earnings might be sub par and then they would accelerate. I was wrong.

8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $240.27 $3.00 29.9% 19.8%
FLR $66.06 $76.88 $0.53 17.2% 19.8%
AGX $15.60 $36.88 $0.75 141.2% 19.8%
KLIC $11.29 $14.24 $0.00 26.1% 19.8%
RPXC $15.92 $17.47 $0.00 9.7% 19.8%
Totals 44.8% 19.8%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $19.80 $0.00 15.0% 10.2%
ATVI $17.71 $21.92 $0.20 24.9% 10.2%
GA $9.04 $11.85 $0.23 33.7% 10.2%
RPXC $17.04 $17.47 $0.00 2.5% 10.2%
SYNA $48.01 $89.38 $0.00 86.2% 10.2%
Totals 32.5% 10.2%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $21.92 $0.20 29.1% 10.2%
KLAC $61.47 $70.97 $0.90 16.9% 10.2%
RPXC $16.22 $17.47 $0.00 7.7% 10.2%
SNDK $69.55 $102.74 $0.23 48.0% 10.2%
WNR $39.11 $38.38 $0.52 -0.5% 10.2%
Totals 20.3% 10.2%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $19.80 $0.00 1.2% 4.8%
CA $29.54 $28.55 $0.25 -2.5% 4.8%
CSCO $22.79 $24.70 $0.00 8.4% 4.8%
NSR $25.82 $25.48 $0.00 -1.3% 4.8%
RCII $28.78 $28.80 $0.00 0.1% 4.8%
Totals 1.2% 4.8%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 44.8% 32.5% 20.3% 1.2% 25.3%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 40.5%
MFI Overall Gain 65.2% 90.4% 114.4% 34.6% 76.1%
Current Balance      41,299       47,597     53,588      33,642    176,126
R3K Current Tranche 19.8% 50.6% 10.2% 4.8% 21.4%
R3K Overall Gain 46.4% 50.6% 33.5% 24.6% 37.3%
R3K Balance      36,598       37,645     33,372      29,722    137,337
Annualized IRR 30.8% 48.9% 72.2% 29.6% 46.6%

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 32.14%      167,001
Current 38.79%      176,126

My May 2014 tranche continues to struggle a bit; although NSR has battled back. Looking back at my rejections, SNDK, ATVI, NTES and PFMT are all up double digits. Only about 45 days left on the August 2013 tranche. That is a fabulous tranche, up almost 45%!

Discretionary Stocks

Lately, it seems like this portfolio moves as GTAT moves.  It was all-in-all kind of a mediocre week for this group, though it has still been stellar by pretty much any yardstick:

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BAC-WTA         8,000         5.73                 6.85 19.5% 18.6% 0.9%
EDV             139    101.20            104.56 3.3% 7.5% -4.1%
GNW       11,000         9.16               17.32 89.2% 30.9% 58.2%
GTAT       14,000         8.64               18.26 111.4% 10.5% 100.8%
HIG-WT         1,650       21.24               27.06 27.4% 19.9% 7.6%
KLIC         7,000       11.48               14.24 24.1% 15.3% 8.8%
RIOM       25,000         2.01                 2.24 11.2% 5.4% 5.8%
TLM         6,000       10.66               10.59 -0.7% 0.9% -1.6%
TSL         4,000       11.13               12.59 13.2% 0.2% 12.9%
TZA       10,000       15.29               14.14 -7.5% 1.5% -9.0%
        
        
        
        
        
Total Open 37.0% 11.1% 26.0%
Closed 3.0% 1.3% 1.7%
Combined 8.1% 2.8% 5.4%

Dividend Portfolio


It was a strong week here, except for the PM issue. I sold them at $86.45. They had gone a bit north of $90 the previous week, But still, I made 12.4% on them in 3 months, so all-in-all I am pleased. Always hard to hit the top.  But TIME, TPVG and FSC all had very solid weeks. About a month ago I added to FSC at $9.20 and it is now at $9.80. That is the advantage I have of having my bucket of 30 stocks that I follow pretty closely. If one of them goes on sale like FSC did, I often can see that and marginally buy some additional shares.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD        14,096         8.03             8.94            10,119.88 20.3% 21.6% -1.3%
BBEP          5,713       16.74           22.13              8,736.99 41.4% 15.1% 26.2%
CSQ          6,954         8.69           11.92            13,141.31 58.9% 56.1% 2.7%
FSC          8,324         9.57             9.80              2,368.90 5.4% 5.5% -0.1%
GPS          2,000       40.55           41.23                           -   1.7% 4.4% -2.7%
NADL          5,109         9.62           10.50              1,200.00 11.6% 2.9% 8.7%
NTC          6,722       12.01           12.62              1,896.44 7.4% 6.2% 1.2%
O              598       20.92           44.22              9,241.39 185.2% 116.9% 68.3%
OIBAX          4,136         5.00             6.19              8,133.26 63.1% 126.4% -63.3%
TGONF          7,000       10.27           10.05              2,367.50 1.1% 19.7% -18.6%
TIME          2,000       22.89           24.25                           -   5.9% 0.6% 5.3%
TPVG          5,128       15.54           16.15              1,958.70 6.4% 3.6% 2.7%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                  59,164 20.3% 18.4% 1.9%
Closed 12.0% 10.9% 1.1%
Combined 13.3% 12.0% 1.2%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.8%
2014 Gain 6.1%

Well, I think it is time to call it a wrap for now. Please stay tuned this weekend as I do have a tracking portfolio hitting one year anniversary today and I will also comment on some miscellaneous stuff.

No comments: