Saturday, June 28, 2014

Weekend Update - June 28th, 2014

Weekend Update

Looks like our 4th straight magnificent summer weekend here in New England. Yeah, the winters are tough; but the summers: ooh-la-la.  It is a cool pleasant morning, about 60 degrees with the birds chirping.  It will be about 80 degrees with low humidity and sunny.

The week was pretty uneventful. I was down 23 basis point, all due to Tuesday which had our 1st 100 point drop in eons. The IWV was essentially flat, going from 117.68 to 117.61. Below is a listing of all my open stocks and how they fared for the week:

Index Stock 5/30/2014 Current Weekly Change Share
1 GTAT         18.30         18.26 -0.2% 9.7%
2 GNW         17.65         17.32 -1.9% 7.2%
3 TZA         14.20         14.14 -0.4% 5.4%
4 KLIC         14.23         14.24 0.1% 4.9%
5 BBEP         21.93         22.13 0.9% 4.8%
6 AOD           8.92            8.94 0.2% 4.8%
7 RPXC         17.29         17.47 1.0% 3.8%
8 ATVI         22.01         21.92 -0.4% 3.3%
9 NTC         12.53         12.62 0.7% 3.2%
10 CSQ         11.94         11.92 -0.2% 3.1%
11 TPVG         15.30         16.15 5.6% 3.1%
12 GPS         41.68         41.23 -1.1% 3.1%
13 FSC           9.47            9.80 3.5% 3.1%
14 RIOM           2.30            2.24 -2.6% 3.0%
15 TGONF         10.05         10.05 0.0% 2.7%
16 AVG         19.75         19.80 0.3% 2.5%
17 TLM         10.79         10.59 -1.9% 2.4%
18 SNDK      101.98       102.74 0.7% 2.2%
19 SYNA         91.35         89.38 -2.2% 2.1%
20 BAC-WTA           7.04            6.85 -2.7% 2.1%
21 AGX         34.33         36.88 7.4% 2.1%
22 NADL         10.94         10.50 -4.0% 2.0%
23 TSL         13.00         12.59 -3.2% 1.9%
24 TIME         23.06         24.25 5.2% 1.8%
25 KLAC         70.00         70.97 1.4% 1.8%
26 HIG-WT         27.44         27.06 -1.4% 1.7%
27 GA         11.78         11.85 0.6% 1.6%
28 WNR         41.72         38.38 -8.0% 1.5%
29 CSCO         24.83         24.70 -0.5% 1.2%
30 RCII         28.57         28.80 0.8% 1.1%
31 NSR         24.82         25.48 2.7% 1.1%
32 CA         28.73         28.55 0.0% 1.1%
33 CF      245.99       240.27 -2.3% 1.1%
34 FLR         78.52         76.88 -2.1% 1.0%
35 O         44.94         44.22 -1.6% 1.0%
36 OIBAX           6.17            6.19 2.2% 1.0%
37 EDV      102.36       104.56 1.8% 0.6%
38 -0.2%

As you can see, WNR was the biggest loser as the govt opening the door on exporting oil (Why Did Refiner Stocks Plunge This Week?) means that 100% of our oil does NOT have to pass through US refineries any more.  If this was not an MFI stock, I would sell WNR.  I will not be looking to buy refining companies for quite a while. My other loser was PM, which I sold mid-week.  They lowered guidance on a bunch of excuses, but at the end of the day people are not buying as many cigarettes and that is a longer term trend (Why Philip Morris (PM) Stock Continues To Decline Today). I decided to take my profit. My other sale during the week was RIOM, where I sold about 27% of my position as the stock had run from $1.65 to 2.38 in under a month.

MFI Portfolio

Despite the WNR struggle, my MFI portfolio continued to power upwards last week, albeit a little bit slower than recent weeks. They were really helps by AGX which is starting to look like one of my best stock picks of all time.  I know I thought hard about buying a second stake in November, but was worried that their February earnings might be sub par and then they would accelerate. I was wrong.

8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $240.27 $3.00 29.9% 19.8%
FLR $66.06 $76.88 $0.53 17.2% 19.8%
AGX $15.60 $36.88 $0.75 141.2% 19.8%
KLIC $11.29 $14.24 $0.00 26.1% 19.8%
RPXC $15.92 $17.47 $0.00 9.7% 19.8%
Totals 44.8% 19.8%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $19.80 $0.00 15.0% 10.2%
ATVI $17.71 $21.92 $0.20 24.9% 10.2%
GA $9.04 $11.85 $0.23 33.7% 10.2%
RPXC $17.04 $17.47 $0.00 2.5% 10.2%
SYNA $48.01 $89.38 $0.00 86.2% 10.2%
Totals 32.5% 10.2%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $21.92 $0.20 29.1% 10.2%
KLAC $61.47 $70.97 $0.90 16.9% 10.2%
RPXC $16.22 $17.47 $0.00 7.7% 10.2%
SNDK $69.55 $102.74 $0.23 48.0% 10.2%
WNR $39.11 $38.38 $0.52 -0.5% 10.2%
Totals 20.3% 10.2%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $19.80 $0.00 1.2% 4.8%
CA $29.54 $28.55 $0.25 -2.5% 4.8%
CSCO $22.79 $24.70 $0.00 8.4% 4.8%
NSR $25.82 $25.48 $0.00 -1.3% 4.8%
RCII $28.78 $28.80 $0.00 0.1% 4.8%
Totals 1.2% 4.8%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 44.8% 32.5% 20.3% 1.2% 25.3%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 40.5%
MFI Overall Gain 65.2% 90.4% 114.4% 34.6% 76.1%
Current Balance      41,299       47,597     53,588      33,642    176,126
R3K Current Tranche 19.8% 50.6% 10.2% 4.8% 21.4%
R3K Overall Gain 46.4% 50.6% 33.5% 24.6% 37.3%
R3K Balance      36,598       37,645     33,372      29,722    137,337
Annualized IRR 30.8% 48.9% 72.2% 29.6% 46.6%

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 32.14%      167,001
Current 38.79%      176,126

My May 2014 tranche continues to struggle a bit; although NSR has battled back. Looking back at my rejections, SNDKATVINTES and PFMT are all up double digits. Only about 45 days left on the August 2013 tranche. That is a fabulous tranche, up almost 45%!

Discretionary Stocks

Lately, it seems like this portfolio moves as GTAT moves.  It was all-in-all kind of a mediocre week for this group, though it has still been stellar by pretty much any yardstick:

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BAC-WTA         8,000         5.73                 6.85 19.5% 18.6% 0.9%
EDV             139    101.20            104.56 3.3% 7.5% -4.1%
GNW       11,000         9.16               17.32 89.2% 30.9% 58.2%
GTAT       14,000         8.64               18.26 111.4% 10.5% 100.8%
HIG-WT         1,650       21.24               27.06 27.4% 19.9% 7.6%
KLIC         7,000       11.48               14.24 24.1% 15.3% 8.8%
RIOM       25,000         2.01                 2.24 11.2% 5.4% 5.8%
TLM         6,000       10.66               10.59 -0.7% 0.9% -1.6%
TSL         4,000       11.13               12.59 13.2% 0.2% 12.9%
TZA       10,000       15.29               14.14 -7.5% 1.5% -9.0%
        
        
        
        
        
Total Open 37.0% 11.1% 26.0%
Closed 3.0% 1.3% 1.7%
Combined 8.1% 2.8% 5.4%

Dividend Portfolio


It was a strong week here, except for the PM issue. I sold them at $86.45. They had gone a bit north of $90 the previous week, But still, I made 12.4% on them in 3 months, so all-in-all I am pleased. Always hard to hit the top.  But TIMETPVG and FSC all had very solid weeks. About a month ago I added to FSC at $9.20 and it is now at $9.80. That is the advantage I have of having my bucket of 30 stocks that I follow pretty closely. If one of them goes on sale like FSC did, I often can see that and marginally buy some additional shares.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD        14,096         8.03             8.94            10,119.88 20.3% 21.6% -1.3%
BBEP          5,713       16.74           22.13              8,736.99 41.4% 15.1% 26.2%
CSQ          6,954         8.69           11.92            13,141.31 58.9% 56.1% 2.7%
FSC          8,324         9.57             9.80              2,368.90 5.4% 5.5% -0.1%
GPS          2,000       40.55           41.23                           -   1.7% 4.4% -2.7%
NADL          5,109         9.62           10.50              1,200.00 11.6% 2.9% 8.7%
NTC          6,722       12.01           12.62              1,896.44 7.4% 6.2% 1.2%
O              598       20.92           44.22              9,241.39 185.2% 116.9% 68.3%
OIBAX          4,136         5.00             6.19              8,133.26 63.1% 126.4% -63.3%
TGONF          7,000       10.27           10.05              2,367.50 1.1% 19.7% -18.6%
TIME          2,000       22.89           24.25                           -   5.9% 0.6% 5.3%
TPVG          5,128       15.54           16.15              1,958.70 6.4% 3.6% 2.7%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                  59,164 20.3% 18.4% 1.9%
Closed 12.0% 10.9% 1.1%
Combined 13.3% 12.0% 1.2%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.8%
2014 Gain 6.1%

Well, I think it is time to call it a wrap for now. Please stay tuned this weekend as I do have a tracking portfolio hitting one year anniversary today and I will also comment on some miscellaneous stuff.

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