Saturday, June 07, 2014

MFI Stock Performance in 2014

MFI Stock Performance in 2014

Here is a table showing how the 50 stocks in my MFI Index have done in the past week and for all of 2014:

Stock Start Last Month Current YTD Change Monthly Change
  ATVI      17.83         20.98         21.12 18.5% 0.7%
  MO      38.39         42.04         41.87 9.1% -0.4%
  APOL      27.32         26.80         27.54 0.8% 2.8%
  AAPL    561.02      639.34       651.91 16.2% 2.0%
  AGX      27.56         30.65         34.08 23.7% 11.2%
  BAH      19.15         22.23         22.28 16.3% 0.2%
  BKE      52.56         45.29         46.59 -11.4% 2.9%
  CA      33.65         29.19         29.85 -11.3% 2.3%
  CACI      73.22         71.40         71.72 -2.0% 0.4%
  CHE      76.62         88.48         90.29 17.8% 2.0%
  CRUS      20.43         22.13         23.44 14.8% 5.9%
  CSCO      22.43         24.98         25.19 12.3% 0.8%
  COH      56.13         41.05         40.33 -28.2% -1.8%
  CRTX         9.49           9.50            9.50 0.1% 0.0%
  DLX      52.19         56.64         57.28 9.8% 1.1%
  DHX         7.25           7.06            7.06 -2.6% 0.0%
  EBIX      14.71         15.72         13.11 -10.9% -16.6%
  EGL      33.40         38.65         40.62 21.6% 5.1%
  GME      49.26         37.85         37.61 -23.7% -0.6%
  GTIV      12.41         13.63         14.18 14.3% 4.0%
  GNI      68.10         19.72         20.81 -69.4% 5.6%
  HLF      78.70         65.13         64.84 -17.6% -0.4%
  IQNT      11.41         15.06         15.72 37.7% 4.4%
  ESI      33.58         17.22         18.20 -45.8% 5.7%
  LPS      37.38         37.30         37.30 -0.2% 0.0%
  LQDT      22.66         15.38         15.13 -33.2% -1.6%
  LO      50.68         62.79         60.37 19.1% -3.9%
  MSFT      37.41         41.50         42.04 12.4% 1.3%
  MYGN      20.98         33.16         35.31 68.3% 6.5%
  NATR      17.32         14.93         14.54 -16.1% -2.6%
  NOC    114.61      122.16       124.61 8.7% 2.0%
  PDLI         8.44           9.37            9.54 13.0% 0.0%
  PFMT      10.30           9.49            9.92 -3.7% 4.5%
  PETS      16.63         13.64         14.04 -15.6% 2.9%
  PRSC      25.72         40.20         37.81 47.0% -5.9%
  QCOR      54.45         90.43         88.46 62.5% -2.2%
  RTN      90.70         98.18         99.39 9.6% 1.2%
  RAI      49.99         60.30         60.01 20.0% -0.5%
  RPXC      16.90         16.25         16.58 -1.9% 2.0%
  SAIC      33.07         39.85         41.33 25.0% 3.7%
  SWHC      13.49         15.88         16.68 23.6% 5.0%
  STRA      34.47         54.64         55.15 60.0% 0.9%
  RGR      73.09         61.65         61.75 -15.5% 0.2%
  UIS      33.57         23.47         24.95 -25.7% 6.3%
  UNTD      13.76         10.92         10.25 -25.5% -6.1%
  USMO      14.28         15.67         16.13 13.0% 2.9%
  USNA      75.58         71.91         74.92 -0.9% 4.2%
  VCI      34.25         34.02         34.02 -0.7% 0.0%
  VGR      16.37         21.31         21.08 28.8% -1.1%
  WTW      32.93         20.83         21.77 -33.9% 4.5%
Total    17,682      18,281 4.6%

The Struggle Is Real

As I have a teenage daughter, I try to keep up on some of the lingo. A phrase I really like is "The Struggle Is Real".  That is right on the mark for MFI so far this year (as a sidenote, if people want a great laugh, check out this website:   35 Pictures That Prove The Struggle Is Real.

If you look at these 50 stocks, what strikes me is the variance. The mean gain is 4.6%, but the standard deviation is 26.5%.  For less than 1/2 a year, that seems like a very high standard deviation.  So if you are using this method and you only picked 5 stocks of the fifty, you could be all over the place.

As a benchmark against that 4.6% gain, the R3K is up 5.8%.  Interestingly, GARIX is up 7%. Recall that is a mutual fund run by Gotham Capital that uses the MFI approach, but is like 140% long and 40% short.  Probably not a bad strategy considering the plethora of over-priced stocks out there.

3 comments:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

Trying to write up some rules for MFI. Want to improve over my first 5 years that were mostly a break even.

Looking at the 50 MFI index for 6 months it looks like the + 1 billion caps have done 8.2% vs 5.8% IWV. I did not count the education companies.

Looking at some of the old posts it looks like you might also avoid the Chinese, home health services, IPO's, majority of sales to one customer and value traps with sales in a long downturn.

I know you can't begin to write the bible for me as a lot of your experience comes the instinct gained over your 8 years of MFI.

I like the 2.6% dividend program but it is limited and I may want to include other stocks.

If you have some time and get a Modelo especial in hand I would appreciate it if you could make a list or a screen to get rid of a few stinkers.

Thanks again for your fine work. You must be very excited with your results since the reboot.

Marsh_Gerda said...

John - I do have a Modelo Especial in hand. I have been looking for the Dogfish at restaurants, but have yet to have seen it. As far as writing "rules", that is tricky. I do think good guidelines (not rules) include dividend stocks and say $800m or more in market cap. Then I think it helps to pick at least one stock that is totally out of favor (hold your nose); as these are interestingly often the ones that do the best. When I have some time, I will post a listing of best stocks ever.

John Carney said...

You results & screen for dividends stocks are for +100 million.

When looking at your top 200 I wonder if you change very much by screening for dividend stocks at a market cap of +800 to +1100?

Of course they are not as cheap but I wonder if the results would change very much?