Friday, June 20, 2014

See You Later, Alligator

Beep-Beep!

Was there ever a better cartoon than the Roadrunner? I am not sure what they are turning out now-a-days, but Roadrunner, Pink Panther and Bullwinkle the Moose have to be some of the greatest cartoons ever.  I will admit that Sponge Bob makes me laugh.  It is the start of a beautiful early summer weekend here in New England.  I think my daughter and I will go to New London tomorrow and check out our first Ct beach.  While we were spoiled by our years in Bermuda, this beach does look like fun (Ocean Beach Park).

MFI Portfolio Acceleration

My MFI portfolio has really accelerated in June.  Check out this table:

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 32.14%      167,001
Current 38.53%      175,928

So just in June, (assuming I started with 100K in the 4 tranches) my worth of my four tranches has gone from 167k to 176k.  That is a snappy move in less than a month.  And you can see it is absolutely smoking the benchmark by 38.53%!  That is approaching what the book "promised".  On an annualized basis, my MFI has a 47.4% annual IRR.  R3K is 23.8%! beep-beep indeed!

August 15th Tranche

The August Tranche is coming up for it's second renewal.  Here are the two groups of stocks I have had in back-to-back years:

8/15/12 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
DLB $34.43 $33.04 $4.00 7.6% 22.1%
KFY $13.98 $18.95 $0.00 35.6% 22.1%
MSFT $30.19 $31.92 $0.92 8.8% 22.1%
NSU $3.62 $3.33 $0.12 -4.6% 22.1%
UIS $19.96 $24.52 $0.00 22.8% 22.1%
Totals 14.1% 22.1%

8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $245.99 $3.00 33.0% 19.9%
FLR $66.06 $78.52 $0.53 19.7% 19.9%
AGX $15.60 $34.33 $0.75 124.9% 19.9%
KLIC $11.29 $14.23 $0.00 26.0% 19.9%
RPXC $15.92 $17.29 $0.00 8.6% 19.9%
Totals 42.4% 19.9%

Interestingly, if I had just renewed the original 5 stocks from August 2012, they are up a very nice 26% in the following year.  As Greenblatt comments in his book, the one year holding period is based more on taxes than anything else. You can see the five stocks in the 8/15/13 portfolio have been outstanding, with AGX being down-right explosive. But it also helps that I have zero out-and-out losers.

I am starting to kick around stock ideas for August. Still early days. BCOR, DNB, TIME, NSR, MBUU and TARO are amongst those I am thinking about.

Solar Play

I did buy TSL this week as a solar play.  Solar seems to me to be starting to realize their potential. TSL looked to me like one of the better choices and I actually sold some call options. So I have capped my upside (through September) at 18%, but frankly in today's markets, pretty hard to complain about 18% in 4 months.

More later!

No comments: