Saturday, June 28, 2014

June 28th 2013 Monthly Tracking Portfolio

June 28th 2013 Monthly Tracking Portfolio

Another month has zipped by. As my faithful readers know, I have been tracking the Magic Formula Stocks as described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats the Stock Market since January 2006.  Every month I take the top 50 stocks over $100m market cap from his website and track how that portfolio of stocks fares versus the Russell 3000 for the next 12 months.  It has been an uphill struggle as the tracking portfolios have under-performed, driven in part by Chinese reverse merger fiascos, for-profit education stocks and home health care stocks all being proverbial albatrosses.

 Fearless readers will recall we had a 29 month "losing streak"..  This month-end extended the winning streak to 13 ! It went up an excellent 26.9 %,edging the R3K, which was up a less excellent 19.2%! Here are the 50 stocks in descending performance order:

Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  52 week low   Mkt Cap 
AGX        15.05        36.88 145.0%        14.94           218
QCOR        44.43        91.27 105.4%        45.39         2,706
PBI        14.20        27.97 97.0%        13.76         2,958
APOL        17.72        31.06 75.3%        17.45         1,998
DLX        33.89        57.82 70.6%        34.67         1,757
AAPL        55.31        91.98 66.3%        57.32     372,776
EBIX          9.17        14.24 55.3%          8.31           344
ATVI        14.12        21.92 55.2%        14.14       15,927
GTIV          9.96        15.23 52.9%          7.35           311
NOC        80.91      120.67 49.1%        81.74       19,467
LO        41.70        61.50 47.5%        41.56       16,511
RTN        64.32        94.40 46.8%        64.48       21,423
HLF        44.52        65.14 46.3%        44.85         4,649
SWHC          9.98        14.39 44.2%          9.89           664
CF      168.94      240.27 42.2%      169.33       10,389
VCI        24.11        34.00 41.0%         N/A            956
BAH        15.25        20.93 37.2%        16.61         2,411
UTHR        65.82        89.45 35.9%        66.01         3,307
CPLA        40.93        55.06 34.5%        41.55           516
PDLI          7.21          9.66 34.0%          7.38         1,079
VG          2.83          3.76 32.9%          2.73           604
CRUS        17.36        22.94 32.1%        16.81         1,099
FLR        58.72        76.88 30.9%        57.50         9,659
STX        43.64        56.92 30.4%        37.17       16,062
NSU          2.83          3.69 30.2%          2.80           587
CHE        71.70        93.03 29.7%        64.16         1,360
AUXL        16.63        21.26 27.8%        16.36           820
RGR        46.36        58.83 26.9%        46.69           928
MSFT        33.55        42.25 25.9%        30.84     288,416
MSB        16.58        19.69 18.8%        17.25           235
ABT        34.20        40.54 18.5%        32.70       54,373
NATR        14.58        16.97 16.4%        12.91           260
LPS        32.16        37.30 16.0%         N/A          2,747
SAI        13.81        15.91 15.2%         N/A          4,764
USMO        13.12        15.03 14.6%        12.58           295
UIS        22.07        24.71 12.0%        21.97           973
TNAV          5.23          5.76 10.1%          5.18           207
STRA        48.83        52.64 7.8%        33.51           528
USNA        72.38        77.76 7.4%        55.01           972
SPPI          7.46          8.01 7.4%          6.36           448
IDCC        44.13        47.31 7.2%        26.25         1,837
CSCO        23.61        24.70 4.6%        20.22     129,341
DELL        13.25        13.86 4.6%         N/A        23,385
RPXC        16.80        17.47 4.0%        14.55           899
ESI        24.40        16.62 -31.9%        16.20           570
DXM        17.57        11.35 -35.4%          4.30           179
LFVN          2.32          1.35 -41.8%          1.10           263
INTX          8.13          4.71 -42.1%          4.15           157
WTW        45.79        20.54 -55.1%        19.50         2,587
GNI        51.43        20.32 -60.5%        16.80           103

I did find another site that has been tracking since 2006 this week.  It uses a different approach, just 5 stocks picked randomly every quarter. They have had better results than me (TrackJGreenblatt's Stock Picks). I found it very interesting and would encourage people to take a looksee.

AGX was number one, I am glad to report I have gotten to ride that wave personally. QCOR was number two. One of my worst sales ever as I once bought them around $18 and sold at $22, happy with a quick 20% gain.  For profit Education Stocks were a minor drag.  The 4 of them were up on average by a sub-par 21.4%.  ESI, really took a nose dive recently.

Here is a listing of every portfolio I have tracked:

Average of Percent Change
Date Total IWV
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9%
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6%
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6%
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1%
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6%
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3%
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0%
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3%
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3%
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6%
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0%
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8%
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4%
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6%
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0%
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5%
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0%
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3%
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6%
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5%
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7%
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2%
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3%
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3%
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0%
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9%
2/26/2008 -51.7% -41.5%
3/24/2008 -40.9% -36.8%
4/25/2008 -25.6% -31.0%
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6%
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3%
7/29/2008 -10.5% -20.9%
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9%
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0%
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9%
11/26/2008 50.9% 27.7%
12/26/2008 48.9% 32.3%
1/23/2009 59.3% 36.4%
2/27/2009 92.8% 55.6%
3/27/2009 85.8% 48.1%
4/24/2009 69.7% 45.8%
5/29/2009 31.8% 22.8%
6/29/2009 21.3% 24.0%
7/29/2009 19.5% 15.9%
8/28/2009 7.4% 8.8%
9/25/2009 12.6% 12.4%
10/30/2009 22.7% 18.3%
11/27/2009 24.3% 13.6%
12/31/2009 23.7% 18.1%
1/22/2010 19.0% 20.6%
2/26/2010 18.6% 23.6%
3/25/2010 10.0% 15.4%
4/23/2010 7.1% 11.4%
5/28/2010 19.3% 25.4%
6/29/2010 16.7% 25.7%
7/29/2010 5.4% 20.1%
9/2/2010 7.3% 10.1%
9/24/2010 -4.3% 0.3%
10/29/2010 -2.9% 10.4%
11/26/2010 -8.5% 1.4%
1/3/2011 -11.4% 0.1%
1/28/2011 -7.6% 4.9%
2/25/2011 -5.5% 5.0%
3/24/2011 -4.4% 7.4%
4/21/2011 -16.0% 3.2%
5/27/2011 -12.0% -0.4%
6/24/2011 -9.5% 5.0%
7/29/2011 -4.3% 8.1%
8/26/2011 12.0% 21.6%
9/30/2011 23.5% 29.6%
10/28/2011 0.4% 11.5%
11/25/2011 13.9% 24.0%
12/29/2011 9.9% 15.9%
1/27/2012 7.4% 16.6%
2/24/2012 7.8% 13.3%
3/23/2012 9.1% 15.2%
4/27/2012 10.5% 15.3%
5/25/2012 26.5% 27.5%
6/22/2012 26.1% 24.6%
7/27/2012 30.4% 25.7%
8/24/2012 26.0% 19.8%
9/28/2012 39.3% 22.1%
10/26/2012 48.3% 28.9%
11/23/2012 45.7% 32.1%
12/31/2012 52.3% 33.0%
1/25/2013 39.5% 22.0%
2/22/2013 46.5% 26.4%
3/28/2013 40.1% 21.2%
4/26/2013 35.0% 20.5%
5/24/2013 20.4% 19.2%
6/28/2013 26.9% 24.1%
7/29/2013 18.0% 18.5%
8/30/2013 16.6% 21.8%
9/27/2013 14.1% 16.9%
10/25/2013 8.8% 12.2%
11/29/2013 5.5% 9.7%
12/31/2013 6.0% 6.7%
1/31/2014 10.4% 10.2%
2/28/2014 6.8% 5.3%
3/28/2014 2.9% 5.7%
4/25/2014 2.2% 5.6%
5/30/2014 2.2% 2.3%
Grand Total 10.0%

As noted, this is the thirteenth (unlucky?) straight portfolio to win after 29 straight losses! (that is hard to do... it ain't random).  It may be a bad omen that the 9 of the 11 newest portfolios are all trailing (including July 2013).  Still some time to go.

Subsets

I also keep 2 subsets of the larger portfolios:  (1) dividend stocks (those with a yield per Yahoo of at least 2.6%) and (2) new stocks (those new to the tracking portfolios in past 12 months.  The dividend portfolio was solid, up about 34%.  The new portfolio also was strong, up 34% as well - as UTHR and CRUS were both goodd.  Finally, I like to track cash as it is more "honest" than percentages as if you go up by 25% and then down by 25%, that is a different result than up by 5% then down by 5%.  So I track what you would have to day if you had spread $100,000 over the first twelve portfolios evenly.

Category Value
Total     178,287
Total Russell 3K     182,653
New     186,483
Dividend     400,179

You can see that the dividend approach is doing well.  But overall, MFI is starting to lag just the R3K again.  I have written some blogs on what has caused that (Why Has MFI Performed Poorly?).  Onward! Time to create the new portfolio.

6 comments:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

Did this quick so there could be an error. The June 28th 2013 has 26 large caps over 1 billion making 37.3% and 10 dividends 2.6 or greater making 44.3% vs IWV at 24.1%. The 24 small ones did 15.7%.
Can this be REAL?

Corpraider said...

The dividend subset is pretty interesting. It might be serving as a proxy for quality or the like by filtering out some of the frauds and really junky stocks, eh?

CorpRaider

Marsh_Gerda said...

John - if you look at the last 12 closed tracking portfolios, stocks with market caps 1B or greater have gone up by 51.2% on average. Under $1b have lagged at +25.1%. That is obviously a stark difference. I have commented several times here how since the beginning stocks about $800m or great have been more stable and have performed better.

Corpraider, there is likely a large overlap between these stocks $1b and greater and stocks paying a dividend of 2.6% or more.

Brian Block said...

Marsh - isn't GME one of the stocks from the June 8th 2013 portfolio? I didn't see it on your post...

Marsh_Gerda said...

Brian, GME was not on the list that month. It is possible they were in the midst of changing quarterly data - sometimes stocks fall off list a few days when that happens.

Brian Block said...

Marsh, I double checked and it looks like there might be a discrepancy with the data. AGX, MSB, NATR, USMO, TNAV, DXM, LFVN, INTX, and GNI appear NOT to be in the June 28th, 2013 portfolio but are listed on your post as being in that portfolio. I'm going off of the Top 200 Lists excel doc...