MFI Index: Quarterly & Year To Date

MFI Index: Quarterly & Year To Date

Thought it was a good time to look at some MFI Index metrics. As a reminder, I create the MFI Index from 50 stocks at the start of each year (going back to 2006).  I track them for a year and then I reconstitute the index.  Here is how it has performed by year:

	Annual		Inception to Date
Year	Russell	MFI	Russell ITD	MFI ITD
2006	11.40%	15.03%	11.40%	15.03%
2007	4.09%	-6.69%	15.96%	7.34%
2008	-37.05%	-37.97%	-27.00%	-33.42%
2009	32.51%	45.18%	-3.27%	-3.34%
2010	18.38%	22.77%	14.50%	18.67%
2011	-0.56%	-10.47%	13.87%	6.25%
2012	16.43%	9.70%	32.57%	16.56%
2013	33.01%	51.70%	76.34%	76.82%
2014	5.26%	4.62%	85.60%	84.98%

As you can see, 2014 thus far has lagged the benchmark a bit, up just 4.62% so far.  Here are the 50 stocks in the index and how they have done in 2014 and in the 2nd quarter:

Stock	Start	Last Quarter	Current	YTD Change	Quarterly         Change
ATVI	17.83	20.44	21.61	21.2%	5.7%
MO	38.39	37.43	41.93	9.2%	12.0%
APOL	27.32	34.24	28.40	4.0%	-17.1%
AAPL	561.02	539.79	645.30	15.0%	19.5%
AGX	27.56	29.73	31.52	14.4%	6.0%
BAH	19.15	22.10	22.08	15.3%	-0.1%
BKE	52.56	46.02	44.98	-14.4%	-2.3%
CA	33.65	31.23	29.44	-12.5%	-5.7%
CACI	73.22	73.80	71.40	-2.5%	-3.3%
CHE	76.62	89.65	90.78	18.5%	1.3%
CRUS	20.43	19.87	22.83	11.8%	14.9%
CSCO	22.43	22.59	25.06	11.7%	11.0%
COH	56.13	50.00	40.05	-28.7%	-19.9%
CRTX	9.49	9.50	9.50	0.1%	0.0%
DLX	52.19	52.72	57.02	9.3%	8.2%
DHX	7.25	7.46	7.00	-3.4%	-6.2%
EBIX	14.71	17.15	13.97	-5.1%	-18.5%
EGL	33.40	45.05	40.34	20.8%	-10.5%
GME	49.26	41.10	37.65	-23.6%	-8.4%
GTIV	12.41	9.12	13.89	11.9%	52.3%
GNI	68.10	19.06	21.90	-67.8%	14.9%
HLF	78.70	57.57	63.38	-19.5%	10.1%
IQNT	11.41	14.61	15.41	35.1%	5.5%
ESI	33.58	28.68	18.01	-46.4%	-37.2%
LPS	37.38	37.30	37.30	-0.2%	0.0%
LQDT	22.66	26.05	15.72	-30.6%	-39.7%
LO	50.68	54.70	62.35	23.0%	14.0%
MSFT	37.41	41.27	41.79	11.7%	1.3%
MYGN	20.98	34.19	35.02	66.9%	2.4%
NATR	17.32	13.78	15.75	-9.1%	14.3%
NOC	114.61	123.99	122.11	6.5%	-1.5%
PDLI	8.44	8.31	9.90	17.3%	0.0%
PFMT	10.30	9.05	9.83	-4.6%	8.6%
PETS	16.63	13.58	13.64	-18.0%	0.4%
PRSC	25.72	28.28	36.46	41.8%	28.9%
QCOR	54.45	65.23	89.67	64.7%	37.5%
RTN	90.70	98.79	97.20	7.2%	-1.6%
RAI	49.99	54.09	61.09	22.2%	12.9%
RPXC	16.90	16.28	17.13	1.4%	5.2%
SAIC	33.07	37.67	45.65	38.0%	21.2%
SWHC	13.49	14.62	16.62	23.2%	13.7%
STRA	34.47	46.43	55.71	61.6%	20.0%
RGR	73.09	59.80	61.40	-16.0%	2.7%
UIS	33.57	30.46	24.24	-27.8%	-20.4%
UNTD	13.76	11.56	10.01	-27.3%	-13.4%
USMO	14.28	18.17	15.45	8.2%	-15.0%
USNA	75.58	75.34	76.08	0.7%	1.0%
VCI	34.25	34.02	34.02	-0.7%	0.0%
VGR	16.37	21.54	21.05	28.6%	-2.3%
WTW	32.93	20.54	22.33	-32.2%	8.7%
Total	17,682	18,028	18,499	4.6%	2.6%

As you will note, 3 stocks are up by more than 60%. But 7 are down by 25% or more.  That is why my portfolio always has 20 stocks.

Open MFI Tracking Portfolios

Of my 12 open MFI tracking portfolios, only 3 are beating the R3K. That being said, it isn't a rout. The open R3K are up on average 10.1% and the MFI portfolios are up 8.8%.

I did read through Barron's this weekend.  They had their mid-year round table discussion.  The experts felt the market was neither "wildly over-valued nor charmingly cheap".  Some stocks of note called out:

Gabelli actually mentioned MUSA. I clearly sold them too quickly! They are a smidgen over $50 and I sold at about $39.  In fact, here is a list of all my buys in 2014 (with multiplier):

Date	Stock	O/C	Purchase	Current	$ Gain	% Gain
1/13	KLIC	Op	12.01	14.45	4,880	20.3%
1/13	SIRI	Cl	3.73	3.37	-5,352	-9.6%
1/14	TC	Cl	2.56	2.58	200	0.8%
1/16	C	Cl	52.67	47.24	-5,425	-10.3%
1/17	RIOM	Op	2.26	2.00	-3,900	-11.5%
1/21	FGL	Cl	19.75	19.80	200	0.3%
1/21	NTC	Op	12.00	12.60	5,828	7.3%
1/24	C	Cl	49.22	47.24	-990	-4.0%
1/27	TWM	Cl	50.45	50.72	1,100	0.5%
1/31	ATVI	Op	17.16	21.41	10,371	25.9%
1/31	KLAC	Op	61.35	68.54	5,272	13.2%
1/31	MBUU	Cl	17.50	19.18	6,720	9.6%
1/31	RPXC	Op	16.13	17.10	2,398	6.0%
1/31	SNDK	Op	70.20	98.46	16,208	40.6%
1/31	WNR	Op	39.80	40.25	971	2.4%
2/10	IEV	Cl	46.28	48.08	567	3.9%
2/10	MUSA	Cl	39.00	39.04	60	0.1%
2/12	AGII	Cl	43.53	44.00	705	1.1%
2/13	FGL	Cl	20.08	20.64	1,250	3.1%
2/14	MUSA	Cl	39.25	39.04	-105	-0.5%
2/18	FSC	Op	9.64	9.36	247	0.6%
2/24	AOD	Op	8.33	8.89	2,343	9.4%
2/24	FGL	Cl	20.01	20.64	695	3.5%
2/24	KLIC	Op	11.52	14.45	4,395	25.4%
2/24	PM	Op	78.60	88.43	10,770	13.7%
2/26	CS	Cl	30.78	32.19	1,413	4.6%
2/26	FSC	Op	9.68	9.36	26	0.1%
2/27	BBEP	Op	19.47	22.00	3,191	16.4%
2/27	LMNS	Cl	12.94	8.86	-32,900	-31.5%
3/4	RIOM	Op	2.24	2.00	-2,400	-10.7%
3/6	PXLW	Cl	7.39	7.63	2,377	3.2%
3/7	LMNS	Cl	12.49	9.36	-25,040	-25.1%
3/7	PXLW	Cl	8.90	6.92	-9,920	-22.3%
3/7	TPVG	Op	15.55	15.26	500	0.6%
3/10	IWM	Cl	119.28	114.07	-656	-4.4%
3/13	CALL	Cl	21.20	22.43	2,460	5.8%
3/17	GTAT	Cl	17.05	17.54	3,465	2.9%
3/19	LMNS	Cl	12.02	10.45	-6,256	-13.0%
3/19	CTCM	Cl	9.13	9.53	2,033	4.5%
3/21	CALL	Cl	24.13	20.33	-7,600	-15.7%
3/21	CTCM	Cl	8.84	9.53	3,467	7.8%
3/28	CALL	Cl	20.27	20.11	-320	-0.8%
3/28	GTAT	Op	14.82	18.32	10,500	23.6%
4/3	GNW	Op	18.39	17.43	-1,930	-5.2%
4/3	TWOU	Cl	13.92	13.71	-585	-1.5%
4/7	GTAT	Op	16.46	18.32	5,595	11.3%
4/7	SPY	Cl	185.98	182.86	-246	-1.7%
4/9	TWOU	Cl	12.99	13.71	483	5.5%
4/9	KANG	Cl	15.88	15.96	930	0.5%
4/9	GSOL	Cl	8.58	8.85	1,100	3.2%
4/10	TZA	Cl	17.00	17.38	1,140	2.2%
4/11	FGL	Cl	22.57	20.64	-1,930	-8.6%
4/15	GTAT	Cl	15.10	15.78	2,720	4.5%
4/15	TZA	Cl	17.81	18.41	2,400	3.4%
4/14	EDV	Op	101.20	104.05	396	2.8%
4/16	TZA	Cl	17.34	17.30	-160	-0.2%
4/21	RIOM	Op	1.87	2.00	1,334	7.1%
4/21	TZA	Cl	16.92	16.07	-3,428	-5.1%
4/22	FGL	Cl	21.96	21.40	-560	-2.6%
4/24	KLAC	Cl	67.21	64.19	-2,114	-4.5%
4/28	FGL	Cl	20.36	21.58	1,793	6.0%
4/28	GNW	Cl	16.76	18.00	2,230	7.4%
4/28	LMNS	Cl	8.32	8.56	921	2.8%
4/28	WB	Cl	17.55	17.89	1,020	1.9%
4/29	AHL	Cl	45.47	45.91	660	1.0%
5/2	HIMX	Cl	8.84	7.16	-5,028	-19.0%
5/6	AVG	Op	19.57	20.45	1,333	4.4%
5/6	CA	Op	29.54	28.95	-348	-1.2%
5/6	CSCO	Op	22.79	24.70	2,512	8.4%
5/6	NSR	Op	25.82	24.37	-1,677	-5.6%
5/6	RCII	Op	28.78	28.60	-186	-0.6%
5/7	AVG	Cl	18.29	19.65	2,710	7.4%
5/9	DTV	Cl	87.11	87.21	75	0.1%
5/12	GTAT	Cl	13.01	14.10	3,270	8.4%
5/13	FSC	Op	9.20	9.36	358	2.6%
5/15	KERX	Cl	12.55	13.14	1,770	4.7%
5/20	AMZN	Cl	303.05	304.22	176	0.4%
5/21	BAC-WTA	Op	6.88	7.17	580	4.2%
5/21	GPS	Op	40.55	41.09	1,070	1.3%
5/28	RIOM	Op	1.65	2.00	3,528	21.4%
5/28	NADL	Op	9.59	10.97	8,100	16.9%
6/2	TBT	Cl	61.72	63.00	2,550	2.1%
6/3	IDCC	Cl	45.31	48.28	2,493	6.6%
6/5	GTAT	Cl	16.02	17.15	3,390	7.1%
6/9	TIME	Op	22.89	23.16	540	1.2%
6/12	TZA	Op	15.45	15.19	-1,529	-1.7%
6/13	IGT	Op	15.71	15.87	489	1.0%
Grand Total			29.73		41,691

Fred Hickey actually suggested shorting IBM. I have to say, that feels very extreme. I think there are many better shorting candidates.

Three of the experts recommended gold miners, so perhaps RIOM is still a smart holding for me.  I do think one wants some exposure to this space, even if it isn't always straight up.

Ok - off to enjoy Father's Day. Have a great one everybody.