Saturday, August 17, 2013

August 15th 2013 MFI Portfolio

My first of my re-booted MFI Portfolios made it to the one year date Thursday.  As proscribed I sold NSU (it was my one loser) a day early to harvest the tax loss (short term). I sold the other 4 positions Friday.  I then bought 5 new stocks Thursday.

8/15/12 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
DLB $34.43 $33.04 $4.00 7.6% 22.1%
KFY $13.98 $18.95 $0.00 35.6% 22.1%
MSFT $30.19 $31.92 $0.92 8.8% 22.1%
NSU $3.62 $3.33 $0.12 -4.6% 22.1%
UIS $19.96 $24.52 $0.00 22.8% 22.1%
Totals 14.1% 22.1%

Looking at the 5 positions, you can see NSU really hurt me. It was a funny stock.  It was actually pushing $5 in 2012 and was my initial best performer. But in 2013, anything associated with precious metals got hit pretty hard. I was really tempted to keep NSU in the new tranche.  But I decided not to in the end. I do still have 10,000 shares (with my multiplier) in dividend portfolio.

DLB struggled the entire year.  I should have sold them a day early as well, but they were so flat it doesn't really matter.  They did pay a special $4 dividend that at least made them respectable.  I had no interest in retaining.

KFY was my best pick.  I did think that employment was going to start rebounding and KFY was a decent way to play that. They were off the list, so no longer an option.

MSFT was a bit disappointing. They were around $34 just a month or so ago, but gave back 10% post earnings.  I thought about renewing them as well.

UIS was the roller coaster ride. They were down over 20% in November and April and they ended up over 20%.  The graph is pretty exciting.  They just have a lot of volatility around earnings.  I was glad to get to sell and make a nice return (though in reality it was just average). I did not want to renew, but if I see them on another downswing into the teens for another tranche, I may re-buy.


8/15/13 Portfolio

Here are my 5 new stocks.  I will say a brief word about each stock:

8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $187.84            -   0.3% -0.3%
FLR $66.06 $66.19            -   0.2% -0.3%
AGX $15.60 $15.39            -   -1.3% -0.3%
KLIC $11.29 $11.39            -   0.9% -0.3%
RPXC $15.92 $15.70            -   -1.4% -0.3%
Totals -0.3% -0.3%

CF is also in my May tranche. I do think the fertilizer space is cheap and CF, with its good access to cheap natural gas has a competitive advantage.  I am not sure how the crash in potash prices will impact CF.  I was encouraged than Dan Loeb has bought a large position in CF.

FLR is the first of my construction plays.  I do believe that the US economy will start accelerating in next 12 months and one beneficiary will be construction.  With the natural gas revolution, I do think new power plants will be built and new infrastructure to liquefy it.

AGX is a much smaller play on the same theme.  They were my last choice (sorry guys).  I will say I really really had trouble picking five stocks this tranche.

KLIC is becoming one of my largest holdings with this addition.  I view them as safe given their huge cash position.  they are profitable and in a bit of a downturn, but in a year things should pick up. There is also potential catalyst of dividend or share repurchases given all their cash.

RPXC is basically a toll company with a patent portfolio. They seem very good at it.

I Could Have Been A Contender

While it is hard to be displeased with a 14% gain, I did trail the index. I also missed on some humongous opportunities. UBNT was up 180%, GME was up 165%, NUS was up 110%, it would have been sweet to have had a huge winner.  But that is what MFI is, it has greater variance amongst stocks that is normal in the stock market as many of the stocks have a few warts.  That is why you buy stocks in 4 tranches and try to own numerous securities.

Overall, my MFI re-boot has been a spectacular success thus far.  I am up over 25% and beating the index by about a ten point spread.  That is fabulous:

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment   25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche -0.3% 36.2% 47.8% 6.2% 21.7%
Percent Gain 13.5% 36.2% 47.8% 6.2% 25.9%
Current Balance   28,375       34,043     36,948      26,551    125,918
R3K Gain 21.3% 25.5% 11.1% 3.6% 15.6%
R3K Balance   30,537       31,363     27,767      25,907    115,575
Annualized IRR 43.4%

You can see I have amended my table slightly to reflect the new August tranche.   So while it started at $25,000 and is now $28,375, you will be able to see how much of gain/loss is from current tranche and how much is from prior portfolios.

Here are all my open MFI positions (February was a great month of picks!):

11/15/12 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $537.62 $502.33 $8.75 -4.9% 25.5%
ABC $40.21 $56.53 $0.63 42.2% 25.5%
LPS $23.89 $32.25 $0.30 36.2% 25.5%
VIAB $49.12 $78.51 $0.83 61.5% 25.5%
WU $12.77 $18.25 $0.38 45.8% 25.5%
Totals 36.2% 25.5%
2/1/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $450.60 $502.33 $8.75 13.4% 11.1%
GA $6.10 $8.09 $0.42 39.5% 11.1%
STRZA $16.06 $24.57 $0.00 53.0% 11.1%
CA $25.07 $30.55 $0.50 23.8% 11.1%
NUS $41.94 $87.13 $0.60 109.2% 11.1%
Totals 47.8% 11.1%
5/6/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
KLIC $11.40 $11.39 $0.00 -0.1% 3.6%
CYOU $29.24 $29.76 $0.00 1.8% 3.6%
RDA $9.74 $11.35 $0.00 16.6% 3.6%
NVDA $13.85 $15.19 $0.08 10.2% 3.6%
CF $183.97 $187.84 $0.80 2.5% 3.6%
Totals 6.2% 3.6%
8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $187.84            -   0.3% -0.3%
FLR $66.06 $66.19            -   0.2% -0.3%
AGX $15.60 $15.39            -   -1.3% -0.3%
KLIC $11.29 $11.39            -   0.9% -0.3%
RPXC $15.92 $15.70            -   -1.4% -0.3%
Totals -0.3% -0.3%

I will write more later this weekend on my portfolio in total.  It has really done well the past month.


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