Saturday, August 18, 2012

Shifting of the Wind?

There is a famous scene in the Return of the King, during the seige of Gondor where the Winds shift.  This is of course foreshadowing that the West will ultimately win.

I'd like to think the winds are shifting for magic formula investing.  As readers of this blog know, I have tracked monthly MFI portfolios for annual periods back to January of 2006.  We have been on a long losing streak.  The last 19 months have lost to the Russell 3000.  And until recently,  all 12 open portfolios were also losing.  But that has changed the past week or two.  The three most recent portfolios are now "winning".  I have seen that happen before, but it is a possible early signal.

I did double my stake in GTAT yesterday at $6.46 a share (a good price on the day).  I think they are a good risk/reward story.

My dividend portfolio continues to cook with gas.  It is up almost 18% on the year and is up 11% since June 25th.


Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BHK          3,009      12.60        14.61         2,667 23.0% 5.6% 17.3%
CPL          1,573      22.63        23.12         1,882 7.5% 16.5% -9.0%
CSCO          4,230      17.19        19.06            825 12.0% 6.1% 5.9%
CSQ          5,330        8.23        10.04         3,739 30.5% 21.5% 9.0%
ENH          2,000      34.80        37.22              -   7.0% 3.9% 3.1%
FCX          1,021      37.55        35.34            749 -3.9% 10.2% -14.1%
FSC          2,702        9.78        10.46         1,011 10.7% 4.1% 6.6%
HFC          1,069      33.80        39.87         1,117 21.0% 2.7% 18.3%
INTC          1,302      19.74        26.33         1,559 39.4% 23.3% 16.1%
JPM          1,661      35.18        36.98            494 6.0% 6.0% 0.0%
JQC          4,751        8.87         9.43         4,052 16.0% 8.2% 7.8%
KMF          1,817      21.86        27.95         2,847 35.0% 17.8% 17.2%
KSS             629      48.15        51.96            199 8.6% 4.4% 4.2%
KSW        13,673        3.78         3.87         6,633 15.3% 20.9% -5.6%
LNC          2,442      24.30        23.89            789 -0.4% 15.9% -16.3%
MPC             579      43.89        49.25            343 13.6% 3.6% 9.9%
MSFT             965      26.83        30.90         1,267 20.1% 15.2% 4.9%
O             548      19.01        41.72         7,048 187.1% 68.5% 118.6%
OIBAX          3,837        4.90         6.43         6,273 64.7% 68.4% -3.7%
PGR          2,000      20.48        19.74              -   -3.6% 4.5% -8.1%
PRE          1,032      61.96        74.34         2,186 23.4% 10.2% 13.2%
PVD             417      64.11        89.40         2,737 49.7% 18.0% 31.7%
SAI          3,925      13.06        11.97            821 -6.7% 0.4% -7.1%
STO          1,040      23.82        25.17         1,121 10.2% 19.7% -9.5%
TROX          2,023      24.12        25.57            500 7.0% 4.1% 2.9%
VIVHY          2,296      16.70        19.68         3,749 27.6% 3.0% 24.6%
WBK             508    105.89      127.80         6,166 32.2% 15.7% 16.5%
















Total Open

       60,775 17.2% 11.6% 5.7%
Closed



10.8% 8.4% 2.4%
Combined


13.4% 9.6% 3.7%
IRR Since 12/31/10


14.7%

2012 Gain


17.9%

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