Is The Magic Returning?

A Little Pixie Dust Anyone?

The magic formula has been streaky since January 2006. If you started a portfolio between January 2006 and the end of August 2006, I estimate you had a 90% chance of beating the benchmarks for the next 12 months.

If you started a portfolio between August 2006 and March 2008, you probably had only about a 5% chance of beating the benchmark over the next 12 months.

Then from April 2008 to December 2009 was probably the best time to start a portfolio, with about a 95% chance of beating the benchmark during the next twelve months.

All portfolios started since the beginning of 2010, through July 2011 have all been losing again.

And since then? Starting to look good again, the magic may be back. Here are how the stocks have performed since the start of 2012:

Stock	Start	Last Week	Current	YTD Change	Weekly Change
AFAM	16.58	16.65	18.00	8.6%	8.1%
AMED	10.91	10.06	9.92	-9.1%	-1.4%
APOL	53.87	57.19	54.61	1.4%	-4.5%
AMAT	10.71	11.50	12.47	16.4%	8.4%
ASTX	1.89	2.08	2.12	12.2%	1.9%
CJES	20.93	18.67	17.52	-16.3%	-6.2%
CPLA	36.05	40.59	41.23	14.4%	1.6%
CECO	7.97	9.56	10.45	31.1%	9.3%
CRAY	6.47	6.44	7.11	9.9%	10.4%
CPIX	5.38	6.05	6.07	12.8%	0.3%
DELL	14.63	15.88	16.67	13.9%	5.0%
DLX	22.76	23.23	23.41	2.9%	0.8%
DLB	30.51	32.40	34.92	14.5%	7.8%
XLS	9.05	9.62	9.93	9.7%	3.2%
EXPE	29.02	28.67	31.04	7.0%	8.3%
FRX	30.26	30.90	32.17	6.3%	4.1%
GTAT	7.24	8.12	8.56	18.2%	5.4%
GME	24.13	23.51	24.55	1.7%	4.4%
GTIV	6.75	7.09	7.45	10.4%	5.1%
GNI	110.25	115.50	120.46	9.3%	4.3%
ESI	56.89	64.77	65.85	15.7%	1.7%
KLAC	48.25	47.90	51.50	6.7%	7.5%
KLIC	9.25	10.48	11.15	20.5%	6.4%
LRCX	37.02	38.50	42.23	14.1%	9.7%
LPS	15.07	14.40	15.02	-0.3%	4.3%
MEDW	12.82	13.01	13.19	2.9%	1.4%
MANT	31.24	34.66	34.28	9.7%	-1.1%
MDF	7.47	8.36	8.40	12.4%	0.5%
MSFT	25.96	28.25	29.71	14.4%	5.2%
MNTA	17.39	19.26	18.91	8.7%	-1.8%
NSU	5.53	6.12	6.10	10.3%	-0.3%
NOC	58.48	58.84	61.39	5.0%	4.3%
NVMI	7.37	7.99	8.53	15.7%	6.8%
PDLI	6.20	6.11	6.33	2.1%	3.6%
PETS	10.38	10.82	11.27	8.6%	4.2%
PWER	3.91	4.66	4.52	15.6%	-3.0%
RTN	48.38	48.67	49.88	3.1%	2.5%
SAI	12.29	13.02	13.00	5.8%	-0.2%
SNDK	49.21	49.89	52.49	6.7%	5.2%
SAVE	15.60	15.02	15.54	-0.4%	3.5%
TNAV	7.81	7.84	8.09	3.6%	3.2%
TER	13.63	14.84	16.14	18.4%	8.8%
TSRA	16.75	17.88	18.65	11.3%	4.3%
USMO	13.87	14.02	14.29	3.0%	1.9%
USNA	30.37	32.00	33.59	10.6%	5.0%
UIS	19.71	19.07	20.13	2.1%	5.6%
EGY	6.04	5.67	6.31	4.5%	11.3%
VECO	20.80	22.84	26.35	26.7%	15.4%
VPHM	27.39	29.28	29.89	9.1%	2.1%
VG	2.45	2.38	2.34	-4.5%	-1.7%
Totals	10,631	11,133	11,561	8.8%	3.8%

But it is not just stocks bought on January 1st. Since October 1st, there have been a plethora (big word) of winners:

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change
VPHM	18.07	29.89	65.4%
MNTA	11.50	18.91	64.4%
NVMI	5.37	8.53	58.8%
OSK	15.74	24.68	56.8%
TSRA	11.94	18.65	56.2%
KLIC	7.46	11.15	49.5%
STRA	75.85	112.67	48.5%
AGX	10.18	15.02	47.5%
TER	11.01	16.14	46.6%
CPLA	28.38	41.23	45.3%
MDP	22.32	31.97	43.2%
PRSC	10.65	14.89	39.8%
APOL	39.61	54.61	37.9%
PRX	26.62	36.32	36.4%
KLAC	38.00	51.50	35.5%
GTIV	5.52	7.45	35.0%
LTXC	5.29	7.10	34.2%
CRAY	5.31	7.11	33.9%
SNDK	40.36	52.49	30.1%
EGY	4.86	6.31	29.8%
UIS	15.69	20.13	28.3%
DLX	18.39	23.41	27.3%
DLB	27.44	34.92	27.3%
PETS	8.89	11.27	26.8%
HRB	13.13	16.49	25.6%
USNA	27.50	33.59	22.1%
GTAT	7.02	8.56	21.9%
AMAT	10.29	12.47	21.2%
MSFT	24.70	29.71	20.3%
DELL	14.14	16.67	17.9%
PDLI	5.42	6.33	16.8%
ESI	57.58	65.85	14.4%
LRCX	37.98	42.23	11.2%
MANT	30.99	34.28	10.6%
CMTL	27.59	30.48	10.5%
ASTX	1.92	2.12	10.4%
LPS	13.61	15.02	10.4%
USMO	12.97	14.29	10.2%
DV	36.80	40.50	10.1%
AFAM	16.63	18.00	8.2%
VECO	24.40	26.35	8.0%
FRX	30.79	32.17	4.5%
PWER	4.50	4.52	0.4%
TNAV	8.87	8.09	-8.8%
VG	2.60	2.34	-10.0%
MPAA	8.23	7.14	-13.2%
LHCG	17.06	14.20	-16.8%
CHKE	12.64	10.47	-17.2%
CECO	13.05	10.45	-19.9%
AMED	14.82	9.92	-33.1%