Those who have read my blog in the past know I have owned Apple off and on. I sold a few months ago at $420 (with a nice gain). But as everyone knows, they have shot north of $455 with their recent blow-out quarter.
Are they a buy?
Interestingly, if you plug in their figures from the quarter, not only do they crack my top 200 but they are # 132.
Think about it.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Saturday, January 28, 2012
January 27th 2011 Tracking Portfolio
I have locked and loaded the January 27th 2011 tracking portfolio. We will see if it continues the positive trend we have seen recently. I have listed "new" stocks and "dividend" stocks below:
New
Dividend
note - I try to stay pretty mechanical and just use whatever Yahoo says is a dividend stock. Clearly the EXPE is a one time payment. I will remove them from the dividend portfolio.
Past 12 Portfolios
I thought it might be interesting to see how the past 12 portfolios would have performed if I only used more established economies as I did in this post (MFI Diary: Analysis of Stocks from 1 Year Ago). Here is a list of economies I will use (ignore the counts):
On average, the past twelve portfolios are up 3%. If we remove stocks not from the countries above, the results improve to 3.6%. So I think we can clearly state that the underperformance of the tracking portfolios (past 12) is not related to Chinese reverse mergers.
New
| Stock | Mkt Cap | New |
| NEMFF.PK | 986.45 | 1 |
| AVEO | 574.79 | 1 |
Dividend
| Stock | Mkt Cap | Dividend Flag | Yield |
| UNTD | 502 | 1 | 7.0% |
| USMO | 314 | 1 | 7.0% |
| RTN | 17,257 | 1 | 3.5% |
| PDLI | 897 | 1 | 9.4% |
| NOC | 15,752 | 1 | 14.2% |
| GNI | 181 | 1 | 12.6% |
| EXPE | 4,185 | 1 | 49.3% |
| DLX | 1,252 | 1 | 3.9% |
| HRB | 4,956 | 1 | 3.9% |
note - I try to stay pretty mechanical and just use whatever Yahoo says is a dividend stock. Clearly the EXPE is a one time payment. I will remove them from the dividend portfolio.
Past 12 Portfolios
I thought it might be interesting to see how the past 12 portfolios would have performed if I only used more established economies as I did in this post (MFI Diary: Analysis of Stocks from 1 Year Ago). Here is a list of economies I will use (ignore the counts):
| Row Labels | Count of Country |
| Canada | 135 |
| France | 9 |
| Germany | 5 |
| Italy | 5 |
| Japan | 15 |
| Luxembourg | 4 |
| Netherlands | 17 |
| Norway | 1 |
| Portugal | 1 |
| Spain | 3 |
| Sweden | 2 |
| Switzerland | 13 |
| United Kingdom | 21 |
| USA | 2,588 |
| Grand Total | 2,819 |
On average, the past twelve portfolios are up 3%. If we remove stocks not from the countries above, the results improve to 3.6%. So I think we can clearly state that the underperformance of the tracking portfolios (past 12) is not related to Chinese reverse mergers.
Friday, January 27, 2012
MFI Monthly Tracking Portfolio Jan 28 2011
Another Loser
The January 28th 2011 monthly tracking portfolio (top 50 stocks over 100m) came of age on Friday. It was another loser. The portfolio in total was down 7.6% whilst the Russell 3000 was up 4.9%. All-in-all a stomping. That makes it the 13th straight portfolio to lose. The next 6 are losing as well, but then the final 5 are ahead.
Listing of 50 Stocks
All Portfolios Back to January 2006
The Way I Keep Score
I track results by looking at dollars as percentages can be misleading. So I track where you would be today if you invested $100,000 equally over 1st 12 months.
So the Russell 3k and the MFI are at a deadheat, both up about 16%. I also show two other "sub" portfolios of the tracking portfolios. The first is "new", which only includes stocks not in the past 12 monthly portfolios. Then "dividend" is all stocks with a 2.6% dividend (per Yahoo) or better at the start. As you can see, the dividend approach has been quite good. Here is how the dividend sub portfolio did (up 3.7%):
The January 28th 2011 monthly tracking portfolio (top 50 stocks over 100m) came of age on Friday. It was another loser. The portfolio in total was down 7.6% whilst the Russell 3000 was up 4.9%. All-in-all a stomping. That makes it the 13th straight portfolio to lose. The next 6 are losing as well, but then the final 5 are ahead.
Listing of 50 Stocks
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | Mkt Cap |
| VPHM | 16.50 | 29.85 | 80.9% | 1,335 |
| AGX | 9.00 | 14.41 | 60.1% | 131 |
| CNU | 4.00 | 6.38 | 59.5% | 262 |
| LO | 70.89 | 107.48 | 51.6% | 11,364 |
| PDLI | 4.46 | 6.40 | 43.5% | 706 |
| RIGL | 6.82 | 9.71 | 42.4% | 363 |
| HRB | 11.96 | 16.77 | 40.2% | 4,000 |
| APOL | 41.02 | 54.46 | 32.8% | 6,054 |
| MRX | 24.76 | 32.20 | 30.0% | 1,526 |
| DELL | 13.15 | 16.74 | 27.3% | 25,941 |
| CNXT | 2.05 | 2.40 | 17.1% | 170 |
| TSRA | 17.11 | 19.90 | 16.3% | 1,070 |
| GME | 20.98 | 24.32 | 15.9% | 3,189 |
| CMTL | 27.13 | 30.89 | 13.9% | 829 |
| PPD | 60.26 | 66.50 | 10.4% | 609 |
| DLX | 23.23 | 25.45 | 9.6% | 1,310 |
| MFW | 23.96 | 26.00 | 8.5% | 483 |
| MSFT | 27.03 | 29.23 | 8.1% | 242,595 |
| PRSC | 14.24 | 15.18 | 6.6% | 192 |
| TER | 16.23 | 16.95 | 4.4% | 2,965 |
| RTN | 47.71 | 48.64 | 1.9% | 18,635 |
| SNDK | 46.80 | 46.70 | -0.2% | 12,035 |
| STRA | 114.77 | 110.15 | -4.0% | 1,631 |
| VALU | 12.26 | 11.42 | -6.9% | 132 |
| USMO | 15.74 | 14.27 | -9.3% | 387 |
| ELNK | 8.28 | 7.20 | -13.0% | 935 |
| TNAV | 8.95 | 7.77 | -13.2% | 311 |
| UNTD | 6.62 | 5.74 | -13.3% | 629 |
| CSGS | 19.26 | 16.31 | -15.3% | 666 |
| PETS | 14.29 | 12.08 | -15.5% | 350 |
| IPXL | 23.39 | 19.05 | -18.6% | 1,504 |
| IDCC | 46.87 | 38.05 | -18.8% | 2,145 |
| GTAT | 10.88 | 8.75 | -19.6% | 1,686 |
| UIS | 27.65 | 20.42 | -26.1% | 1,222 |
| OSK | 37.39 | 25.41 | -32.0% | 3,393 |
| ARO | 24.34 | 16.48 | -32.3% | 2,218 |
| AOL | 23.82 | 16.07 | -32.5% | 2,579 |
| LINC | 14.55 | 8.70 | -40.2% | 351 |
| CHKE | 17.22 | 10.28 | -40.3% | 164 |
| VECO | 43.24 | 24.37 | -43.6% | 1,786 |
| COCO | 5.44 | 2.95 | -45.8% | 500 |
| LHCG | 27.56 | 14.85 | -46.1% | 522 |
| LPS | 31.17 | 16.78 | -46.2% | 2,925 |
| AFAM | 34.81 | 18.70 | -46.3% | 329 |
| CECO | 22.62 | 10.66 | -52.9% | 1,897 |
| NEP | 5.32 | 2.33 | -56.2% | 161 |
| PWER | 10.39 | 4.53 | -56.4% | 1,105 |
| CRME | 6.64 | 2.35 | -64.6% | 420 |
| AMED | 35.35 | 10.04 | -71.6% | 1,026 |
| SCEI | 6.59 | 1.30 | -80.3% | 112 |
All Portfolios Back to January 2006
| Average of Percent Change | ||
| Date | Total | IWV |
| 1/6/2006 | 16.0% | 10.9% |
| 2/17/2006 | 21.2% | 14.6% |
| 3/29/2006 | 13.0% | 9.6% |
| 4/7/2006 | 10.3% | 12.1% |
| 5/12/2006 | 20.4% | 18.6% |
| 5/31/2006 | 29.2% | 23.3% |
| 6/30/2006 | 22.4% | 20.0% |
| 7/31/2006 | 19.7% | 17.3% |
| 8/31/2006 | 13.0% | 13.3% |
| 9/28/2006 | 12.7% | 14.6% |
| 10/27/2006 | 10.3% | 12.0% |
| 11/29/2006 | -0.3% | 4.8% |
| 12/28/2006 | -6.9% | 3.4% |
| 1/26/2007 | -10.2% | -6.6% |
| 2/27/2007 | -3.7% | -1.0% |
| 3/26/2007 | -9.8% | -5.5% |
| 4/27/2007 | -10.9% | -5.0% |
| 5/29/2007 | -11.5% | -6.3% |
| 7/3/2007 | -30.0% | -15.6% |
| 7/30/2007 | -19.9% | -11.5% |
| 8/30/2007 | -12.5% | -8.7% |
| 9/27/2007 | -19.0% | -18.2% |
| 11/2/2007 | -40.4% | -34.3% |
| 11/28/2007 | -40.1% | -38.3% |
| 12/28/2007 | -36.3% | -40.0% |
| 1/25/2008 | -36.4% | -35.9% |
| 2/26/2008 | -51.7% | -41.5% |
| 3/24/2008 | -40.9% | -36.8% |
| 4/25/2008 | -25.6% | -31.0% |
| 5/28/2008 | -22.2% | -33.6% |
| 7/2/2008 | -11.7% | -25.3% |
| 7/29/2008 | -10.5% | -20.9% |
| 8/29/2008 | -13.8% | -17.9% |
| 9/26/2008 | -4.3% | -10.0% |
| 10/31/2008 | 18.7% | 13.9% |
| 11/26/2008 | 50.9% | 27.7% |
| 12/26/2008 | 48.9% | 32.3% |
| 1/23/2009 | 59.3% | 36.4% |
| 2/27/2009 | 92.8% | 55.6% |
| 3/27/2009 | 85.8% | 48.1% |
| 4/24/2009 | 69.7% | 45.8% |
| 5/29/2009 | 31.8% | 22.8% |
| 6/29/2009 | 21.3% | 24.0% |
| 7/29/2009 | 19.5% | 15.9% |
| 8/28/2009 | 7.4% | 8.8% |
| 9/25/2009 | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| 10/30/2009 | 22.7% | 18.3% |
| 11/27/2009 | 24.3% | 13.6% |
| 12/31/2009 | 23.7% | 18.1% |
| 1/22/2010 | 19.0% | 20.6% |
| 2/26/2010 | 18.6% | 23.6% |
| 3/25/2010 | 10.0% | 15.4% |
| 4/23/2010 | 7.1% | 11.4% |
| 5/28/2010 | 19.3% | 25.4% |
| 6/29/2010 | 16.7% | 25.7% |
| 7/29/2010 | 5.4% | 20.1% |
| 9/2/2010 | 7.3% | 10.1% |
| 9/24/2010 | -4.3% | 0.3% |
| 10/29/2010 | -2.9% | 10.4% |
| 11/26/2010 | -8.5% | 1.4% |
| 1/3/2011 | -11.4% | 0.1% |
| 1/28/2011 | -7.6% | 4.9% |
| 2/25/2011 | -7.9% | 1.0% |
| 3/24/2011 | -6.5% | 1.6% |
| 4/21/2011 | -9.5% | -0.9% |
| 5/27/2011 | -3.7% | -0.7% |
| 6/24/2011 | -1.8% | 4.1% |
| 7/29/2011 | 0.2% | 2.7% |
| 8/26/2011 | 14.1% | 13.3% |
| 9/30/2011 | 23.8% | 17.9% |
| 10/28/2011 | 5.1% | 3.3% |
| 11/25/2011 | 19.9% | 14.7% |
| 12/29/2011 | 10.0% | 5.0% |
| Grand Total | 5.6% | 4.6% |
| Closed | 6.3% | 4.7% |
| Open | 3.0% | 5.6% |
The Way I Keep Score
I track results by looking at dollars as percentages can be misleading. So I track where you would be today if you invested $100,000 equally over 1st 12 months.
| Category | Value |
| Total | 116,309 |
| Total New | 110,594 |
| Total Dividend | 229,048 |
| Total Russell 3K | 116,548 |
So the Russell 3k and the MFI are at a deadheat, both up about 16%. I also show two other "sub" portfolios of the tracking portfolios. The first is "new", which only includes stocks not in the past 12 monthly portfolios. Then "dividend" is all stocks with a 2.6% dividend (per Yahoo) or better at the start. As you can see, the dividend approach has been quite good. Here is how the dividend sub portfolio did (up 3.7%):
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change |
| LO | 70.89 | 107.48 | 51.6% |
| PDLI | 4.46 | 6.40 | 43.5% |
| HRB | 11.96 | 16.77 | 40.2% |
| DLX | 23.23 | 25.45 | 9.6% |
| RTN | 47.71 | 48.64 | 1.9% |
| STRA | 114.77 | 110.15 | -4.0% |
| VALU | 12.26 | 11.42 | -6.9% |
| USMO | 15.74 | 14.27 | -9.3% |
| ELNK | 8.28 | 7.20 | -13.0% |
| UNTD | 6.62 | 5.74 | -13.3% |
| PETS | 14.29 | 12.08 | -15.5% |
| CHKE | 17.22 | 10.28 | -40.3% |
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