Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Tortoise and the Hare

As people may know, I have been tracking MFI stocks since January 2006. One of my regular exercises is to pull 50 stocks greater than 100m in market cap every month and track how they perform over the next year. I thought it might be insightful to look at two key metrics: (1) the distribution of stocks, meaning what stocks have been on the list most often and (2) how high dividend stocks performed. A standard technique that worked for many years was the "Dogs of the Dow", where each year you purchased the Dow stocks that had the highest dividend yields. Regretfully, I have not kept records on dividend yields, but I have gone through the list and eye-balled stocks that have traditionally had high-yields. I think people will find the results interesting.

Without further ado, here's the distribution of stocks and times each stock has been picked. There have been 52 monthly portfolios, so that would be the hypothetical max.

Row Labels Count of Stock High Dividend
KFY 42 0
EGY 39 0
KG 37 0
USMO 36 1
VPHM 34 0
PPD 32 0
DLX 32 1
UNTD 30 1
PACR 29 0
bbsi 28 0
BVF 27 1
ELNK 27 1
FTO 27 0
HSII 26 0
rail 22 0
HLF 22 0
CHKE 20 1
MTEX 20 0
AEO 20 0
CSKI 20 0
VALU 20 0
EME 19 0
FTD 19 1
HOC 19 0
pncl 19 0
NOOF 18 0
NTRI 18 0
VRGY 17 0
FRX 17 0
TRA 17 0
ENDP 16 0
FWLT 16 0
ICFI 16 0
SOLR 15 0
QCOR 15 0
WON 15 0
MRX 15 0
KSWS 15 0
TZOO 15 0
GHM 15 0
JTX 15 0
ASPV 14 0
CF 14 0
TCK 14 0
debs 14 0
pbh 14 0
HLYS 13 0
GTLS 13 0
LO 13 1
FDG 13 1
FIX 13 0
ovti 13 0
trlg 12 0
MLHR 12 0
ttt 12 0
EXBD 12 0
VCLK 12 0
pwei 12 0
hnr 12 0
deck 12 0
JAKK 12 0
IVAC 11 0
MDP 11 0
lrw 11 0
CONN 11 0
NUE 11 0
AVCI 11 0
UEPS 11 0
amed 11 0
VCI 11 0
tpc 11 0
ACN 11 0
FCX 11 0
PALM 11 0
PCU 11 1
SCMP 10 0
CITP 10 0
CVCO 10 0
mstr 10 0
VGR 10 1
LRCX 10 0
FLR 10 0
GNI 10 1
CBI 10 0
MVL 10 0
KBR 10 0
BPT 10 1
RTN 10 0
AXCA 10 0
WNR 10 0
PRGX 10 0
HBMFF.PK 10 0
JCOM 10 0
SWIR 9 0
UTA 9 0
TRID 9 0
CECO 9 0
LCAV 9 0
gvhr 9 0
IPHS 9 0
CEU 9 0
JH 9 1
DTPI 9 0
csgs 9 0
HRB 9 0
CTCM 9 0
CHCG.OB 9 0
SIMG 9 0
CRYP 8 0
opmr 8 0
play 8 0
TSRA 8 0
COH 8 0
XJT 8 0
CUTR 8 0
SCSS 8 0
MHP 8 0
EPAX 8 0
SHOO 8 0
SAI 8 0
EGLT 7 0
GIB 7 0
MSB 7 1
GME 7 0
WFR 7 0
PMTI 7 0
BARE 7 0
MOT 7 0
DIVX 7 0
OMPI 7 0
VTRU 7 0
PRIM 7 0
GIGM 7 0
PTIE 7 0
ITWO 7 0
WTW 7 0
RGR 7 0
QXM 6 0
IILG 6 0
IDAR.PK 6 1
BDY 6 0
SNTA 6 0
INTX 6 0
CAST 6 0
THO 6 0
ARO 6 0
HCKT 6 0
DELL 6 0
MTW 6 0
IBAS 6 0
NXG 6 0
ELOS 6 0
IUSA 6 0
RHI 6 0
PTEN 6 0
VIA-B 6 0
AYI 6 0
BVSN.OB 6 0
TTWO 6 0
PDLI 6 0
BR 6 0
DEPO 6 0
PCR 6 0
IMMU 6 0
IAR 6 1
KHD 6 0
TGB 5 0
PFE 5 1
CBPO 5 0
IDCC 5 0
SRDX 5 0
INT 5 0
VM 5 0
CNU 5 0
ODSY 5 0
APOL 5 0
PRXI 5 0
KOSP 5 0
ALOY 5 0
ASEI 5 0
CALM 5 1
CYTK 5 0
HAS 5 0
MWW 5 0
NSS 5 0
PBT 5 1
SHE 4 0
NOV 4 0
DGX 4 0
ANIK 4 0
AMSG 4 0
MEDQ.PK 4 0
USNA 4 0
MLNX 4 0
CHKP 4 0
DAR 4 0
PRM 4 0
DBTK 4 0
RDYN 4 0
NSR 4 0
UIC 4 0
char.pk 4 0
NVDA 4 0
EPIQ 4 0
ardna 3 0
SPSS 3 0
GYI 3 0
DHX 3 0
TBI 3 0
HIRE 3 0
UIS 3 0
MTXX 3 0
SMED 3 0
ahci 3 0
CREL 3 0
IVII 3 0
LMS 3 0
PROJ 3 0
GLBL 3 0
KNXA 3 0
UST 3 1
ptsc.ob 3 0
SLXP 3 0
QLTI 3 0
SPMD 3 0
ARP 3 0
HPY 3 0
MRGE 3 0
SYNA 3 0
LXK 3 0
TBL 3 0
CLE 3 0
TGIS 3 0
FCGI 3 0
TWX 3 0
BKE 3 0
NVTL 3 0
alda 3 0
ASGN 3 0
MSO 3 0
LOOP 3 0
ALJ 3 0
MIPS 3 0
SIGM 3 0
WDC 3 0
RAI 3 1
MD 3 0
ESI 3 0
DRC 3 0
DK 2 0
CLZR 2 0
PDII 2 0
QDEL 2 0
WMCO 2 0
cmtl 2 0
TNDM 2 0
LOJN 2 0
PLTE 2 0
CDWC 2 0
WBC 2 0
LPX 2 0
OPTV 2 0
ABC 2 0
BWLRF.PK 2 0
EZM 2 0
MGLN 2 0
nath 2 0
CRAY 2 0
JRC 2 0
UTMD 2 0
INFI 2 0
LGTY 2 0
AGX 2 0
PRSC 2 0
SHFK.PK 2 0
AMSWA 2 0
nus 2 0
ORCT 2 0
MAT 2 0
DPZ 2 0
FORD 2 0
TKTM 2 0
MAXY 2 0
CALL 2 0
NX 2 0
XOMA 2 0
SNCR 2 0
ADSK 2 0
BRL 2 0
CBST 2 0
SNTS 2 0
BBND 2 0
FTAR.OB 2 0
GRMN 2 0
HTRN 2 0
AIRV 2 0
CJR 2 1
PRO 2 0
CHE 2 0
AEOS 2 0
SUPX 2 0
wins 2 0
SVM 2 0
HHS 2 0
ONTY 2 0
LNCR 2 0
DISH 2 0
pgi 2 0
TRB 1 0
MNST 1 0
EFX 1 0
HRS 1 0
AGYS 1 0
BFT 1 0
BBBY 1 0
BID 1 0
VFC 1 0
ISSC 1 0
WSTC 1 0
QKLS 1 0
drco 1 0
QLGC 1 0
camp 1 0
CLF 1 0
KMG 1 0
LHCG 1 0
GPS 1 0
AFAM 1 0
ponr 1 0
LINC 1 0
INTC 1 0
AVP 1 0
ZINC 1 0
RECN 1 0
MFB 1 0
BIDZ 1 0
tpx 1 0
rhb 1 0
ctt 1 0
liz 1 0
gisx 1 0
rimg 1 0
PER 1 0
RL 1 0
GMR 1 0
AOB 1 0
GNK 1 0
nobh 1 0
GTI 1 0
SAPE 1 0
CBEH 1 0
SCC 1 0
PRAI 1 0
bld 1 0
moss 1 0
AFCE 1 0
HEW 1 0
SEPR 1 0
PTEC 1 0
SHAW 1 0
AMAT 1 0
NOVA 1 0
CPY 1 0
NPSP 1 0
CRAI 1 0
CMFO 1 0
GBE 1 0
ANF 1 0
gci 1 0
ntgr 1 0
PD 1 0
slnk 1 0
TSCM 1 0
IWV 1 0
GIS 1 0
DEXO 1 0
TWLL 1 0
HOG 1 0
TYPE 1 0
CHRD 1 0
HW 1 0
JEC 1 0
PII 1 0
SOAP 1 0
CATT 1 0
COG 1 0
KNDL 1 0
JOYG 1 0
MMM 1 0
MAS 1 0
EGN 1 0
MASI 1 0
VDSI 1 0
STEC 1 0
caw 1 0
APKT 1 0
VLCM 1 0
SVA 1 0
MMS 1 0
aplx 1 0
BDK 1 0
MCK 1 0
MOS 1 0
SWK 1 0
WG 1 0
HURC 1 0
ANPI 1 0
talk 1 0
HGG 1 0
AZO 1 0
cvgi 1 0
KCI 1 0
ELX 1 0
TBV 1 0
BEBE 1 0
TC 1 0

Now, I defined Higher yielding stocks as those that often exceeded 4% per my memory. Not perfect I know. The benchmark is that if you bought every stock at every point in time on this list, the average stock is up 6%. Now if you only selected the stocks listed above... slow and boring stocks like USMO, DLX, ELNK and UNTD.


Dividend All MFI
Average of Percent Change
Date Total Total
1/6/2006 26.8% 16.0%
3/29/2006 63.7% 13.0%
4/7/2006 25.0% 10.3%
5/12/2006 24.9% 20.4%
5/31/2006 48.4% 29.2%
6/30/2006 39.1% 22.4%
7/31/2006 61.0% 19.7%
8/31/2006 36.8% 13.0%
9/28/2006 41.8% 12.7%
10/27/2006 45.5% 10.3%
11/29/2006 46.9% -0.3%
12/28/2006 17.6% -6.9%
1/26/2007 13.7% -10.2%
2/27/2007 40.0% -3.7%
3/26/2007 41.8% -9.8%
4/27/2007 23.3% -10.9%
5/29/2007 47.4% -11.5%
7/3/2007 3.8% -30.0%
7/30/2007 -8.6% -19.9%
8/30/2007 7.7% -12.5%
9/27/2007 -8.0% -19.0%
11/2/2007 -30.2% -40.4%
11/28/2007 -34.0% -40.1%
12/28/2007 -37.6% -36.3%
1/25/2008 -17.3% -36.4%
2/26/2008 -31.3% -51.7%
3/24/2008 -40.7% -40.9%
4/25/2008 -12.0% -25.6%
5/28/2008 -13.3% -22.2%
7/2/2008 -0.4% -11.7%
7/29/2008 3.6% -10.5%
8/29/2008 -12.8% -13.8%
9/26/2008 -0.2% -4.3%
10/31/2008 18.6% 18.7%
11/26/2008 44.3% 50.9%
12/26/2008 36.0% 48.9%
1/23/2009 29.9% 59.3%
2/27/2009 96.5% 92.8%
3/27/2009 121.0% 85.8%
4/24/2009 58.8% 69.7%
5/29/2009 33.0% 39.7%
6/29/2009 27.9% 33.3%
7/29/2009 20.3% 29.4%
8/28/2009 14.4% 16.5%
9/25/2009 12.0% 12.4%
10/30/2009 22.6% 17.2%
11/27/2009 26.5% 13.7%
12/31/2009 20.3% 8.1%
1/22/2010 18.6% 6.6%
2/26/2010 15.3% 6.9%
3/25/2010 7.2% -0.1%
4/23/2010 -0.8% -5.1%
Grand Total 16.8% 6.0%

Wow! 16.8% average versus overall 6%! Think I will go buy some ELNK.

Sellers Regret

I sold HCKT a week too early, though I was following the "rules".

The Hackett Group, Inc. (NGM) Edit
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