Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Three Stock Sales Coming Up

I have three stocks hitting their one year anniversary over the next two weeks:

Purchase Date Symbol Initial Price Current Price Avg of Gain Avg of IWV Gain
5/21/2009 UEPS $12.50 $14.89 19.1% 29.6%
5/29/2009 UTA $7.90 $8.79 11.3% 24.8%
WILC $2.12 $5.91 178.8% 24.8%

Ironic that the "best" stock, WILC was not from the list. UTA and UEPS are still on the lists, so I can certainly keep them for another year. As a reminder, I treat a stock that I renew as a new buy in my tracking. So I will treat it as sold and then "bought" at the appropriate price. UEPS is a little larger holding than I typically have, but I am not sure it is worth the effort to re-balance.

I have not decided what to do with my $ from WILC. I am ready to sell it, it would be a borderline MFI stock today. I like CHOP, a new mechanical stock, but the Chinese stocks have really drug down my performance and Jubak thinks there may be better entry points for China down the road (Time to start raising some cash–there are bargains waiting down the road). I think the other options are ELNK (as I mentioned in Tortoise and the Hare, these high yield stocks have outperformed) or something relatively defensive, such as MD or IPXL. I will probably watch those 4 stocks, with recent volatility, if I see a real good buying opportunity I might pull the trigger a day or two early.

I have said many times that MFI seems to be cyclical. JG said that only 7 of 12 months outperform and that is not far from what I have seen. But what he didn't say was that it wasn't random, but rather like a sine wave. And a lot of the tracking I am doing suggests we're starting to enter another period of under-performance. Here are the monthly closed tracking portfolios I have with a "1" showing outperformance and "0" showing underperformance. You can clearly see that it isn't random.

Date Total IWV

1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9% 1/6/2006 1
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6% 2/17/2006 1
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6% 3/29/2006 1
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1% 4/7/2006 0
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6% 5/12/2006 1
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3% 5/31/2006 1
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0% 6/30/2006 1
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3% 7/31/2006 1
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3% 8/31/2006 0
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6% 9/28/2006 0
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0% 10/27/2006 0
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8% 11/29/2006 0
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4% 12/28/2006 0
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6% 1/26/2007 0
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0% 2/27/2007 0
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5% 3/26/2007 0
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0% 4/27/2007 0
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3% 5/29/2007 0
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6% 7/3/2007 0
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5% 7/30/2007 0
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7% 8/30/2007 0
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2% 9/27/2007 0
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3% 11/2/2007 0
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3% 11/28/2007 0
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0% 12/28/2007 1
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9% 1/25/2008 0
2/26/2008 -51.7% -41.5% 2/26/2008 0
3/24/2008 -40.9% -36.8% 3/24/2008 0
4/25/2008 -25.6% -31.0% 4/25/2008 1
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6% 5/28/2008 1
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3% 7/2/2008 1
7/29/2008 -10.5% -20.9% 7/29/2008 1
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9% 8/29/2008 1
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0% 9/26/2008 1
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9% 10/31/2008 1
11/26/2008 50.9% 27.7% 11/26/2008 1
12/26/2008 48.9% 32.3% 12/26/2008 1
1/23/2009 59.3% 36.4% 1/23/2009 1
2/27/2009 92.8% 55.6% 2/27/2009 1
3/27/2009 85.8% 48.1% 3/27/2009 1
4/24/2009 69.7% 45.8% 4/24/2009 1

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