Sunday, May 30, 2010

Portfolio Update May 30th 2010

Quick update on my holdings and graphs. Here is the graph, sadly I am back below the break-even line.



Then here are my current holdings, I will sell WILC on Tuesday.

Purchase Date Symbol Initial Price Current Price Avg of Gain Avg of IWV Gain
5/29/2009 UTA $7.90 $8.36 5.8% 21.7%
WILC $2.12 $5.88 177.4% 21.7%
6/9/2009 CHCG $1.12 $0.37 -66.9% 18.7%
FRX $23.10 $25.88 12.0% 18.7%
PFE $14.13 $15.23 12.6% 18.7%
6/12/2009 ENDP $16.72 $20.94 25.2% 18.1%
7/21/2009 TTT $8.92 $11.48 28.8% 17.0%
7/27/2009 GIGM $5.02 $2.52 -49.8% 13.5%
RTN $45.61 $52.41 17.1% 13.5%
7/30/2009 BIOC $3.70 $4.54 22.7% 13.1%
BR $16.53 $19.12 18.2% 13.1%
CBI $13.62 $19.87 45.9% 13.1%
8/14/2009 BKE $26.66 $35.55 42.3% 10.7%
8/18/2009 PVSW $4.96 $4.82 -2.8% 12.4%
8/26/2009 CEU $5.40 $4.30 -20.4% 8.1%
8/27/2009 GTLS $19.50 $18.42 -5.5% 8.0%
9/8/2009 AMED $35.86 $49.72 38.7% 8.3%
9/21/2009 WTW $26.00 $27.42 7.5% 3.8%
9/22/2009 QCOR $5.42 $9.47 74.7% 3.1%
9/28/2009 TTT $10.28 $11.48 11.7% 4.2%
9/30/2009 JCOM $23.00 $23.14 0.6% 4.7%
PRIM $7.30 $6.85 -5.5% 4.7%
10/2/2009 KSW $3.60 $3.29 -5.8% 8.0%
10/14/2009 LIWA $7.39 $9.02 22.1% 1.2%
10/22/2009 AGX $12.31 $10.77 -12.5% 1.4%
10/30/2009 CMFO $4.30 $5.93 37.9% 7.5%
RGR $10.59 $15.74 51.0% 7.5%
11/3/2009 ESI $93.61 $100.94 7.8% 6.4%
11/17/2009 IDCC $23.62 $26.10 10.5% 0.1%
11/20/2009 QKLS $5.75 $5.21 -9.4% 1.9%
12/2/2009 TSRA $23.92 $17.38 -27.3% 0.2%
12/4/2009 CBPO $9.15 $12.89 40.9% 0.4%
12/18/2009 CF $89.45 $68.59 -23.3% 0.4%
12/21/2009 CYTK $2.59 $2.94 13.5% 0.4%
1/5/2010 VALV $5.31 $8.78 65.3% -1.7%
1/14/2010 TRMS $2.46 $2.26 -8.1% -3.6%
1/20/2010 RAI $53.55 $52.14 -1.0% -3.6%
1/29/2010 GXDX $31.69 $26.66 -15.9% 1.4%
2/5/2010 UIS $34.07 $23.20 -31.9% 4.8%
2/23/2010 CSKI $15.45 $12.66 -18.0% 0.6%
2/27/2010 TNDM $15.31 $13.44 -12.2% 1.3%
3/1/2010 UIS $35.22 $23.20 -34.1% -0.8%
3/8/2010 DNB $69.93 $72.99 4.4% -3.7%
3/12/2010 KSW $3.90 $3.29 -13.1% -4.8%
PRSC $14.35 $16.39 14.2% -4.8%
3/18/2010 KSW $3.65 $3.29 -7.1% -4.9%
4/12/2010 NEWN $8.20 $7.13 -13.0% -8.0%
4/21/2010 CCME $12.57 $13.25 5.4% -9.3%
4/30/2010 OSK $39.33 $35.53 -9.7% -9.0%
5/10/2010 SOHU $45.94 $44.20 -3.8% -4.8%
5/20/2010 CHKE $19.11 $20.49 9.2% 0.8%
IPXL $19.23 $21.08 9.6% 2.0%
5/24/2010 MRX $22.64 $23.19 2.4% 1.4%
UEPS $13.70 $14.32 4.5% 2.0%
Grand Total $19.90 $20.26 8.2% 4.8%
Actual Totals (adj as all purchase not equal $) 5.8% 3.5%
Mechanical


7.4% 5.6%

Note the "mechanical" is a subset of my larger portfolio. Have a good holiday weekend everyone.

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Uodate of Mechanical Stocks - May 29th

Here is how my mechanical stock portfolio has performed. This is not a real $ portfolio, but a test to see how well it works, that is buying stocks that are new to screens in past 52 weeks.

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
AAV 5/15/09 3.41 6.48 - 88.71 2.10 90.0% 30.7% 59.3%
AMED 5/29/09 30.43 49.72 - 92.53 2.10 63.4% 20.5% 42.9%
UTA 5/29/09 7.90 8.36 - 92.53 2.10 5.8% 20.5% -14.6%
PFE 6/5/09 14.51 15.23 0.50 94.55 2.10 8.4% 17.9% -9.5%
VM 6/5/09 4.55 5.50 - 94.55 2.10 20.9% 17.9% 3.0%
ONTY 6/11/09 2.60 3.49 - 95.08 2.10 34.2% 17.2% 17.0%
BPI 6/19/09 16.74 21.57 - 92.04 1.58 28.9% 20.5% 8.3%
GME 6/19/09 22.95 22.79 - 92.04 1.58 -0.7% 20.5% -21.2%
SHAW 7/10/09 23.69 34.11 - 87.96 1.58 44.0% 26.1% 17.9%
RTN 7/24/09 45.39 52.41 1.00 98.06 1.58 17.7% 13.1% 4.5%
CBZ 7/31/09 6.54 6.60 - 98.81 1.58 0.9% 12.3% -11.4%
CBI 7/31/09 13.95 19.87 - 98.81 1.58 42.4% 12.3% 30.2%
DRC 7/31/09 29.11 31.83 - 98.81 1.58 9.3% 12.3% -2.9%
JEC 7/31/09 40.98 41.76 - 98.81 1.58 1.9% 12.3% -10.4%
NPSP 7/31/09 3.89 6.59 - 98.81 1.58 69.4% 12.3% 57.1%
ASGN 7/31/09 4.23 5.53 - 98.81 1.58 30.7% 12.3% 18.5%
AGX 8/7/09 12.35 10.77 - 98.81 1.58 -12.8% 12.3% -25.1%
BBND 8/7/09 4.00 2.85 - 98.81 1.58 -28.8% 12.3% -41.0%
LHCG 8/7/09 24.55 30.80 - 98.81 1.58 25.5% 12.3% 13.2%
RGR 8/7/09 11.45 15.74 0.28 98.81 1.58 39.9% 12.3% 27.6%
PRIM 8/7/09 6.95 6.85 0.08 100.79 1.58 -0.4% 10.1% -10.4%
SEPR 8/7/09 18.12 23.00 - 100.79 1.58 26.9% 10.1% 16.9%
CEU 8/21/09 5.10 4.30 - 102.96 1.58 -15.7% 7.8% -23.4%
CYTK 8/21/09 3.04 2.94 - 102.96 1.58 -3.3% 7.8% -11.0%
CMFO 8/28/09 4.55 5.93 - 102.96 1.58 30.3% 7.8% 22.6%
NAVR 9/4/09 1.79 1.96 - 102.60 1.58 9.5% 8.1% 1.4%
WTW 9/11/09 26.00 27.42 0.53 104.77 1.58 7.5% 5.9% 1.6%
MIPS 9/18/09 3.72 4.95 - 106.72 1.58 33.1% 4.0% 29.1%
ESI 10/30/09 90.35 100.94 - 103.56 1.07 11.7% 6.6% 5.1%
VRSK 10/30/09 27.43 30.25 - 103.56 1.07 10.3% 6.6% 3.6%
APOL 11/6/09 55.99 53.16 - 107.13 1.07 -5.1% 3.1% -8.1%
CBST 11/6/09 17.60 21.50 - 107.13 1.07 22.2% 3.1% 19.1%
SNTA 11/6/09 3.20 3.13 - 107.13 1.07 -2.2% 3.1% -5.3%
IMMU 11/6/09 3.61 3.48 - 107.13 1.07 -3.6% 3.1% -6.7%
PBH 11/13/09 6.95 7.72 - 109.62 1.07 11.1% 0.7% 10.3%
IDCC 11/20/09 23.56 26.10 - 109.43 1.07 10.8% 0.9% 9.9%
PDLI 11/27/09 6.63 5.37 0.50 109.57 1.07 -11.5% 0.8% -12.3%
CBPO 12/4/09 9.06 12.89 - 111.01 1.07 42.3% -0.5% 42.8%
XOMA 12/4/09 0.72 0.44 - 111.01 1.07 -38.7% -0.5% -38.2%
Valv 12/31/09 5.15 8.78 - 111.44 0.48 70.5% -1.4% 71.9%
RAI 1/15/10 53.81 52.14 0.90 113.64 0.48 -1.4% -3.3% 1.9%
TRMS 1/15/10 2.45 2.26 - 113.64 0.48 -7.8% -3.3% -4.4%
SAI 1/15/10 18.90 17.19 - 113.64 0.48 -9.0% -3.3% -5.7%
NATH 1/28/10 14.70 14.70 - 108.57 0.48 0.0% 1.2% -1.2%
SMED 2/5/10 6.74 5.60 - 106.66 0.48 -16.9% 3.0% -19.9%
SPMD 2/5/10 36.63 30.13 - 106.66 0.48 -17.7% 3.0% -20.7%
UIS 2/5/10 34.25 23.20 - 106.66 0.48 -32.3% 3.0% -35.3%
QKLS 2/12/10 5.69 5.21 - 108.04 0.48 -8.4% 1.7% -10.1%
MGIC 2/12/10 1.78 2.24 - 108.04 0.48 25.8% 1.7% 24.2%
ESIC 2/19/10 2.07 2.54 - 111.14 0.48 22.7% -1.2% 23.9%
ODSY 2/19/10 17.89 26.56 - 111.14 0.48 48.5% -1.2% 49.6%
HRB 2/26/10 17.28 16.08 0.15 110.74 0.48 -6.1% -0.8% -5.3%
TNDM 2/26/10 16.12 13.44 - 110.74 0.48 -16.6% -0.8% -15.8%
DEXO 2/26/10 29.80 20.48 - 110.74 0.48 -31.3% -0.8% -30.5%
AFAM 3/5/10 35.52 36.37 - 114.25 0.48 2.4% -3.9% 6.2%
DNB 3/5/10 69.95 72.99 - 114.25 0.48 4.3% -3.9% 8.2%
SNTS 3/5/10 4.87 2.89 - 114.25 0.48 -40.7% -3.9% -36.8%
KIRK 3/12/10 20.11 21.52 - 115.46 0.48 7.0% -4.9% 11.9%
PRSC 3/12/10 14.18 16.39 - 115.46 0.48 15.6% -4.9% 20.4%
QDEL 3/25/10 13.73 11.70 - 116.58 - -14.8% -6.2% -8.6%
SVA 4/9/10 5.83 4.04 - 119.55 - -30.7% -8.5% -22.2%
VALU 4/9/10 22.07 19.80 3.00 119.55 - 3.3% -8.5% 11.8%
BDSI 4/16/10 4.12 2.91 - 119.36 - -29.4% -8.4% -21.0%
LOV 4/23/10 3.45 3.47 - 121.81 - 0.6% -10.2% 10.8%
MD 4/23/10 57.02 56.55 - 121.81 - -0.8% -10.2% 9.4%
ABC 4/23/10 31.13 31.28 - 121.81 - 0.5% -10.2% 10.7%
SNDK 4/30/10 39.84 46.62 - 121.81 - 17.0% -10.2% 27.2%
OSK 4/30/10 38.62 35.53 - 121.81 - -8.0% -10.2% 2.2%
GXDX 5/7/10 27.89 26.66 - 111.26 - -4.4% -1.7% -2.7%
IPXL 5/7/10 16.66 21.08 - 111.26 - 26.5% -1.7% 28.2%
SOHU 5/7/10 44.19 44.20 - 111.26 - 0.0% -1.7% 1.7%
CHOP 5/14/10 6.54 6.06 - 113.89 - -7.3% -4.0% -3.4%
LIWA 5/14/10 8.24 9.02 - 113.89 - 9.5% -4.0% 13.4%
FLL 5/14/10 3.10 3.09 - 113.89 - -0.3% -4.0% 3.6%
MRX 5/21/10 22.50 23.19 - 107.71 - 3.1% 1.5% 1.5%






Top 50 Portfolio







Totals 18.4% 0.7% 17.7%
54.6% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed 22.6% -0.6% 23.2%
S&P C

109.37

Open 8.0% 3.9% 4.1%

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Two New Stocks In and Other Thoughts

A few changes in my portfolio.
  • UEPS hit its one year anniversary. I renewed it on Monday for another year.
  • WILC will hit its one year anniversary tomorrow. I will sell it Monday as I have large capital gains.
  • UTA comes up next week, I intend to renew it.
  • At the end of next week, three pharmas: FRX, PFE and ENDP are hitting their one year. I will sell PFE and likely FRX. Still undecided about ENDP.
  • Then I added two stocks, perhaps slightly early but I wanted to take advantage of the big drop last week: CHKE and IPXL.
Here are how the stocks coming up for sale have fared:

Data
Purchase Date Symbol Initial Price Current Price Avg of Gain Avg of IWV Gain
5/21/2009 UEPS $12.50 $14.24 13.9% 27.7%
5/29/2009 UTA $7.90 $8.62 9.1% 23.0%
WILC $2.12 $5.88 177.4% 23.0%
6/9/2009 CHCG $1.12 $0.39 -65.2% 20.0%
FRX $23.10 $26.07 12.9% 20.0%
PFE $14.13 $15.37 13.6% 20.0%
6/12/2009 ENDP $16.72 $20.85 24.7% 19.4%

So you can see WILC and ENDP out-performed the Russell 3000, while the others underperformed. CHCG is worth so little, I forgot about them.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Stocks Getting Cheaper?

Every month or so, I crank up my "MFI Cruncher" spreadsheet and calculate the earnings yield and return on capital on the top 30 stocks. Actually, this time I am also going to start doing the top 50. I wish I had used the top 50 all the way as I feel it is a more robust sample. But back when I started, I didn't have the cruncher, and it is time-consuming by hand. I have used the median Earnings yield as the best metric to compare portfolios period to period. As I move to top 50, I think the average will also be a good yardstick. Return on capital, doesn't really measure "cheapness", as you recall from the book its purpose is to find good companies.

Here are the top stocks, in descending order:

Stock EY ROC EY Rank ROC Rank Sum
SNTA 127% 2699% 1 2 3
IDCC 32% 1778% 4 3 7
BDSI 72% 1123% 2 6 8
SNTS 28% 1218% 6 5 11
ELNK 45% 524% 3 12 15
PDLI 20% 213023% 16 1 17
UEPS 23% 1263% 13 4 17
SOLR 26% 744% 9 9 18
SMED 28% 235% 7 18 25
IMMU 17% 793% 19 8 27
CEU 27% 196% 8 21 29
OSK 25% 254% 12 17 29
MRX 17% 741% 21 10 31
CHOP 26% 178% 10 22 32
CSKI 32% 129% 5 28 33
PPD 20% 197% 15 20 35
UIS 26% 170% 11 24 35
CHKE 12% 854% 29 7 36
LO 15% 684% 26 11 37
AMED 16% 257% 22 16 38
PRSC 16% 323% 25 14 39
ENDP 16% 282% 24 15 39
EME 21% 149% 14 26 40
UNTD 16% 227% 23 19 42
CNU 18% 153% 17 25 42
USMO 10% 513% 30 13 43
VPHM 17% 173% 20 23 43
CBPO 17% 128% 18 29 47
SOHU 14% 139% 27 27 54
CBI 14% 89% 28 30 58



EY ROC
26-May Median 19.9% 269%
30-Apr Median 16.8% 551%
3/19/10 Median 15.6% 321%
2/19/10 Median 18.8% 329%
11/06/09 Median 16.1% 229%
07/31/09 Median 19.7% 212%
04/16/09 Median 27.1% 228%

So you can see that on a median basis, the stocks are the cheapest since last June. Then here are the stats on the top 50, I will start tracking these regularly as well.


Rank ``` EY ROC Total Mkt Cap
1 SNTA 127% 2699% 4 119
2 IDCC 32% 1778% 8 1,113
3 BDSI 72% 1123% 9 61
4 SNTS 28% 3766% 9 172
5 ELNK 45% 524% 15 923
6 SOLR 26% 744% 19 772
7 PDLI 20% 213023% 22 982
8 UEPS 23% 1263% 22 621
9 SMED 28% 235% 28 82
10 OSK 25% 254% 32 3,019
11 CEU 27% 196% 35 123
12 IMMU 17% 1234% 35 240
13 USMO 31% 170% 38 310
14 CHOP 26% 178% 40 281
15 MRX 17% 741% 41 1,438
16 CSKI 32% 129% 44 213
17 PPD 20% 197% 44 460
18 UIS 26% 170% 45 941
19 LO 15% 684% 48 11,296
20 AMED 16% 257% 50 1,358
21 ENDP 16% 282% 51 2,404
22 PRSC 16% 323% 51 241
23 UNTD 16% 227% 54 563
24 CHKE 12% 854% 54 183
25 EME 21% 149% 55 1,658
26 PVSW 14% 433% 56 81
27 APOL 15% 215% 58 8,286
28 VALU 13% 453% 59 195
29 CNU 18% 153% 59 228
30 MHP 10% 513% 60 8,852
31 VPHM 17% 173% 60 1,055
32 TNDM 24% 102% 61 451
33 AFAM 15% 205% 61 338
34 UTA 24% 92% 62 142
35 ARO 18% 153% 62 2,577
36 IPXL 25% 80% 63 1,296
37 GME 19% 107% 65 3,389
38 FWLT 18% 116% 66 2,984
39 RGR 20% 94% 66 305
40 NSR 14% 196% 67 1,595
41 DLX 14% 205% 67 1,057
42 AHCI 19% 103% 67 119
43 CBPO 17% 128% 68 305
44 FLL 18% 71% 76 56
45 SOHU 14% 139% 77 1,673
46 TTT -65% 193% 78 290
47 CBST 13% 150% 80 1,391
48 SHE 9% 127% 89 260
49 CBI 14% 89% 90 1,859

Grand Total 21% 235492% 2,470 68,357


















5/26/2010 Median 18.1% 197.1%
563
5/26/2010 Average 21.4% 4806.0%
1,395