In hindsight, it is all so obvious. Even Greenspan was stunned at the practices going on and the structured CDOs. It is ironic, but the one party that did not suffer (a lot) but played a key role in the nefarious affair were the rating agencies, S&P and Moody's. I do still expect the shoe to drop on them (I suspect that is why WEB has sold his MCO) and the entire way ratings are done will change. You clearly can not have the party wanting the rating to pay S&P for the rating. Can you say coflict of interest?
So what is the new bubble that we're all pretending to ignore? Is there one going on right now? I think there is, and I have hinted about it here; but need to really think about what should be done.
It is of course the US dollar and all the debt our country has taken on. No one is willing to take responsibility or make unpopular decisions, so it will likely continue to spiral out of control. I suspect the ramifications will be as austere as the housing bubble; but the US won't be able to bail out the US. The first inklings are the UN considering changing the reserve currency from the US dollar (UN Panel Calls For Dollar Reserve Role To Be Eliminated).
I suspect when it starts to happen, it'll happen very fast. Foriegn countires will begin demanding much high interest rates to assume our debt. And then our debt will spiral higher due to the interest rates. This will continue until we force the political will to get our financial house in order. I expect there will be some self-correcting components, as the dollar weakens, our labor will become cheaper in a global sense and we may begin to export more.
I plan to continue migrating some assets into non-US currencies. I might even consider opening up a European or Canadian brokerage account. I'd encourage everyone to read Peter Schiff's book, I think he gets a bit extreme... but it is food for thought.
Finally, here are my open top 50 mechanical portfolio stocks... they are up OVER 60%!
| Symbol | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff | |
| DELL | 9/20/08 | 16.63 | 16.92 | - | 124.12 | 2.49 | 1.7% | -11.5% | 13.3% |
| NGA | 9/20/08 | 6.50 | 5.63 | - | 124.12 | 2.49 | -13.4% | -11.5% | -1.9% |
| TTWO | 9/20/08 | 16.57 | 12.12 | - | 124.12 | 2.49 | -26.9% | -11.5% | -15.3% |
| FWLT | 10/5/08 | 31.91 | 32.99 | - | 110.34 | 1.80 | 3.4% | -1.1% | 4.5% |
| MOS | 10/5/08 | 40.88 | 53.04 | 0.05 | 110.34 | 1.80 | 29.9% | -1.1% | 31.0% |
| WRLS | 10/5/08 | 1.82 | 3.50 | - | 110.34 | 1.80 | 92.3% | -1.1% | 93.4% |
| TSCM | 10/5/08 | 5.09 | 2.74 | 0.03 | 110.34 | 1.80 | -45.7% | -1.1% | -44.6% |
| CTCM | 10/10/08 | 9.02 | 17.13 | - | 88.50 | 1.80 | 89.9% | 23.3% | 66.6% |
| DAR | 10/10/08 | 7.55 | 7.93 | - | 88.50 | 1.80 | 5.0% | 23.3% | -18.3% |
| NOV | 10/10/08 | 23.42 | 44.38 | - | 88.50 | 1.80 | 89.5% | 23.3% | 66.2% |
| PRGX | 10/10/08 | 4.69 | 5.66 | - | 88.50 | 1.80 | 20.7% | 23.3% | -2.6% |
| PCP | 10/10/08 | 54.15 | 98.46 | 0.04 | 88.50 | 1.80 | 81.9% | 23.3% | 58.6% |
| ALDN | 10/10/08 | 9.64 | 11.49 | - | 88.50 | 1.80 | 19.2% | 23.3% | -4.1% |
| GPX | 10/17/08 | 5.03 | 7.50 | - | 93.21 | 1.80 | 49.1% | 17.1% | 32.0% |
| BKE | 11/1/08 | 26.34 | 28.04 | 0.20 | 96.83 | 1.80 | 7.2% | 12.7% | -5.5% |
| CYNO | 11/1/08 | 8.76 | 11.47 | - | 96.83 | 1.80 | 30.9% | 12.7% | 18.2% |
| DHX | 11/1/08 | 4.06 | 6.49 | - | 96.83 | 1.80 | 59.9% | 12.7% | 47.2% |
| GES | 11/1/08 | 21.77 | 37.10 | 0.10 | 96.83 | 1.80 | 70.9% | 12.7% | 58.2% |
| HWAY | 11/1/08 | 10.10 | 16.12 | - | 96.83 | 1.80 | 59.6% | 12.7% | 46.9% |
| WBC | 11/1/08 | 18.37 | 19.58 | 0.07 | 96.83 | 1.80 | 7.0% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| GTLS | 11/7/08 | 11.62 | 21.55 | - | 93.86 | 1.80 | 85.5% | 16.3% | 69.2% |
| CDII | 11/7/08 | 2.77 | 1.69 | - | 93.86 | 1.80 | -39.0% | 16.3% | -55.2% |
| IPHS | 11/7/08 | 19.97 | 20.50 | 0.17 | 93.86 | 1.80 | 3.5% | 16.3% | -12.7% |
| MSPD | 11/7/08 | 1.31 | 2.75 | - | 93.86 | 1.80 | 109.9% | 16.3% | 93.7% |
| QLGC | 11/7/08 | 11.49 | 17.79 | - | 93.86 | 1.80 | 54.8% | 16.3% | 38.6% |
| SCHN | 11/7/08 | 27.07 | 57.03 | - | 93.86 | 1.80 | 110.7% | 16.3% | 94.4% |
| SVR | 11/7/08 | 8.92 | 19.39 | - | 93.86 | 1.80 | 117.4% | 16.3% | 101.1% |
| TDC | 11/7/08 | 14.48 | 26.50 | - | 93.86 | 1.80 | 83.0% | 16.3% | 66.8% |
| EBAY | 11/7/08 | 14.19 | 24.32 | - | 96.83 | 1.80 | 71.4% | 12.7% | 58.7% |
| TKTM | 11/15/08 | 5.87 | 12.25 | - | 86.62 | 1.80 | 108.7% | 26.0% | 82.7% |
| ERES | 11/15/08 | 4.65 | 6.71 | - | 86.62 | 1.80 | 44.3% | 26.0% | 18.3% |
| FEED | 11/15/08 | 1.76 | 5.34 | - | 86.62 | 1.80 | 203.4% | 26.0% | 177.4% |
| HCKT | 11/15/08 | 2.57 | 3.03 | - | 86.62 | 1.80 | 17.9% | 26.0% | -8.1% |
| FLR | 11/15/08 | 35.73 | 56.03 | 0.13 | 86.62 | 1.80 | 57.2% | 26.0% | 31.2% |
| GTI | 11/15/08 | 4.79 | 15.34 | - | 86.62 | 1.80 | 220.3% | 26.0% | 194.3% |
| INTX | 11/15/08 | 4.10 | 4.00 | - | 86.62 | 1.80 | -2.4% | 26.0% | -28.4% |
| MSO | 11/15/08 | 3.91 | 8.39 | - | 86.62 | 1.80 | 114.6% | 26.0% | 88.6% |
| JCG | 11/15/08 | 11.22 | 36.08 | - | 86.62 | 1.80 | 221.6% | 26.0% | 195.6% |
| MDR | 11/15/08 | 7.80 | 27.46 | - | 86.62 | 1.80 | 252.1% | 26.0% | 226.1% |
| ABAT | 11/22/08 | 1.34 | 4.25 | - | 79.52 | 1.80 | 217.2% | 37.2% | 179.9% |
| ADSK | 11/22/08 | 14.37 | 24.07 | - | 79.52 | 1.80 | 67.5% | 37.2% | 30.3% |
| GIGM | 11/22/08 | 3.79 | 5.35 | - | 79.52 | 1.80 | 41.2% | 37.2% | 3.9% |
| OPTV | 11/22/08 | 0.94 | 1.39 | - | 79.52 | 1.80 | 47.9% | 37.2% | 10.7% |
| PRO | 11/22/08 | 4.14 | 8.06 | - | 79.52 | 1.80 | 94.7% | 37.2% | 57.5% |
| WTSLA | 11/22/08 | 2.20 | 3.64 | - | 79.52 | 1.80 | 65.5% | 37.2% | 28.2% |
| AIRT | 11/29/08 | 6.08 | 8.75 | - | 90.09 | 1.80 | 43.9% | 21.1% | 22.8% |
| BSQR | 11/29/08 | 2.48 | 2.49 | - | 90.09 | 1.80 | 0.4% | 21.1% | -20.7% |
| CKSW | 11/29/08 | 2.20 | 6.64 | - | 90.09 | 1.80 | 201.8% | 21.1% | 180.7% |
| IILG | 11/29/08 | 5.30 | 11.52 | - | 90.09 | 1.80 | 117.4% | 21.1% | 96.2% |
| PBSO.PK | 11/29/08 | 0.39 | 0.65 | - | 90.09 | 1.80 | 66.7% | 21.1% | 45.5% |
| DIVX | 12/8/08 | 4.37 | 5.87 | - | 87.93 | 1.80 | 34.3% | 24.1% | 10.2% |
| GSIT | 12/8/08 | 2.94 | 3.70 | - | 87.93 | 1.80 | 25.9% | 24.1% | 1.8% |
| HGRD | 12/8/08 | 1.35 | 4.69 | - | 87.93 | 1.80 | 247.4% | 24.1% | 223.3% |
| ISIL | 12/8/08 | 7.92 | 16.07 | 0.12 | 87.93 | 1.80 | 104.4% | 24.1% | 80.3% |
| MAXY | 12/8/08 | 5.80 | 6.83 | - | 87.93 | 1.80 | 17.8% | 24.1% | -6.3% |
| PVSW | 12/8/08 | 3.80 | 4.94 | - | 87.93 | 1.80 | 30.0% | 24.1% | 5.9% |
| DDMX | 12/13/08 | 11.13 | 17.26 | - | 88.99 | 1.80 | 55.1% | 22.6% | 32.5% |
| PSOF | 12/13/08 | 2.74 | 5.21 | - | 88.99 | 1.80 | 90.1% | 22.6% | 67.5% |
| ITWO | 12/27/08 | 5.61 | 15.87 | - | 87.16 | 1.08 | 182.9% | 24.4% | 158.5% |
| JOYG | 12/27/08 | 21.95 | 46.99 | - | 87.16 | 1.08 | 114.1% | 24.4% | 89.7% |
| TRMS | 12/27/08 | 1.03 | 2.55 | - | 87.16 | 1.08 | 147.6% | 24.4% | 123.2% |
| CTGX | 1/3/09 | 3.18 | 8.08 | - | 92.96 | 1.08 | 154.1% | 16.6% | 137.5% |
| PMD | 1/3/09 | 6.44 | 6.76 | - | 92.96 | 1.08 | 5.0% | 16.6% | -11.6% |
| HPY | 1/24/09 | 8.54 | 14.60 | - | 83.11 | 1.08 | 71.0% | 30.4% | 40.5% |
| HLIT | 1/31/09 | 5.15 | 6.90 | - | 82.83 | 1.08 | 34.0% | 30.9% | 3.1% |
| HGT | 1/31/09 | 13.06 | 18.46 | - | 82.83 | 1.08 | 41.3% | 30.9% | 10.5% |
| CNU | 2/8/09 | 1.96 | 3.18 | - | 86.98 | 1.08 | 62.2% | 24.6% | 37.6% |
| SJT | 2/8/09 | 19.05 | 19.25 | - | 86.98 | 1.08 | 1.0% | 24.6% | -23.6% |
| SGU | 2/8/09 | 2.55 | 3.55 | 0.07 | 86.98 | 1.08 | 41.9% | 24.6% | 17.3% |
| TC | 2/8/09 | 4.33 | 13.01 | - | 86.98 | 1.08 | 200.5% | 24.6% | 175.8% |
| bioc | 2/14/09 | 3.72 | 3.63 | - | 82.76 | 1.08 | -2.4% | 31.0% | -33.4% |
| FORR | 2/14/09 | 17.56 | 23.17 | - | 82.76 | 1.08 | 31.9% | 31.0% | 1.0% |
| ZYXI.OB | 2/14/09 | 1.20 | 1.01 | - | 82.76 | 1.08 | -15.6% | 31.0% | -46.6% |
| FRD | 2/21/09 | 4.95 | 6.12 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | 23.6% | 40.0% | -16.4% |
| SOLR | 2/21/09 | 4.22 | 5.80 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | 37.4% | 40.0% | -2.6% |
| MTXX | 2/21/09 | 17.90 | 5.90 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | -67.0% | 40.0% | -107.1% |
| TYPE | 2/21/09 | 3.02 | 8.50 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | 181.5% | 40.0% | 141.4% |
| PTIE | 2/21/09 | 5.41 | 5.32 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | -1.7% | 40.0% | -41.7% |
| PDO | 2/21/09 | 3.19 | 5.12 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | 60.5% | 40.0% | 20.5% |
| SAPE | 2/21/09 | 3.38 | 8.02 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | 137.3% | 40.0% | 97.3% |
| VDSI | 2/21/09 | 5.25 | 8.20 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | 56.2% | 40.0% | 16.2% |
| IGTE | 2/21/09 | 2.99 | 7.07 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | 136.5% | 40.0% | 96.4% |
| DECK | 2/28/09 | 41.27 | 77.27 | - | 73.93 | 1.08 | 87.2% | 46.6% | 40.6% |
| KTII | 2/28/09 | 55.48 | 95.87 | - | 73.93 | 1.08 | 72.8% | 46.6% | 26.2% |
| INT | 2/28/09 | 29.01 | 50.45 | - | 73.93 | 1.08 | 73.9% | 46.6% | 27.3% |
| ICAD | 2/28/09 | 0.90 | 2.40 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | 166.7% | 40.0% | 126.7% |
| EXBD | 3/6/09 | 12.96 | 24.31 | - | 68.92 | 1.08 | 87.6% | 57.3% | 30.3% |
| DISH | 3/6/09 | 9.27 | 18.46 | - | 68.92 | 1.08 | 99.1% | 57.3% | 41.9% |
| QLTI | 3/6/09 | 1.41 | 4.39 | - | 68.92 | 1.08 | 211.3% | 57.3% | 154.1% |
| SRDX | 3/6/09 | 16.87 | 23.94 | - | 68.92 | 1.08 | 41.9% | 57.3% | -15.4% |
| INFI | 4/16/09 | 5.83 | 6.92 | - | 87.08 | 0.52 | 18.7% | 23.8% | -5.1% |
| CRAY | 5/1/09 | 3.98 | 8.84 | - | 87.89 | 0.52 | 122.1% | 22.7% | 99.4% |
| TWX | 5/1/09 | 22.84 | 29.61 | - | 87.89 | 0.52 | 29.6% | 22.7% | 6.9% |
| RST | 5/1/09 | 29.83 | 22.80 | - | 87.89 | 0.52 | -23.6% | 22.7% | -46.3% |
| ULCM.PK | 5/1/09 | 2.18 | 2.30 | - | 87.89 | 0.52 | 5.5% | 22.7% | -17.2% |
| AAV | 5/15/09 | 3.41 | 6.91 | - | 88.71 | 0.52 | 102.6% | 21.6% | 81.1% |
| AMED | 5/29/09 | 30.43 | 43.80 | - | 92.53 | 0.52 | 43.9% | 16.5% | 27.4% |
| UTA | 5/29/09 | 7.90 | 13.27 | - | 92.53 | 0.52 | 68.0% | 16.5% | 51.4% |
| PFE | 6/5/09 | 14.51 | 16.42 | - | 94.55 | 0.52 | 13.2% | 14.1% | -0.9% |
| VM | 6/5/09 | 4.55 | 4.99 | - | 94.55 | 0.52 | 9.7% | 14.1% | -4.4% |
| ONTY | 6/11/09 | 2.60 | 6.59 | - | 95.08 | 0.52 | 153.5% | 13.4% | 140.0% |
| BPI | 6/19/09 | 16.74 | 16.03 | - | 92.04 | - | -4.2% | 16.6% | -20.8% |
| GME | 6/19/09 | 22.95 | 25.82 | - | 92.04 | - | 12.5% | 16.6% | -4.1% |
| SHAW | 7/10/09 | 23.69 | 32.83 | - | 87.96 | - | 38.6% | 22.0% | 16.6% |
| RTN | 7/24/09 | 45.39 | 46.17 | - | 98.06 | - | 1.7% | 9.4% | -7.7% |
| CBZ | 7/31/09 | 6.54 | 7.15 | - | 98.81 | - | 9.3% | 8.6% | 0.7% |
| CBI | 7/31/09 | 13.95 | 17.82 | - | 98.81 | - | 27.7% | 8.6% | 19.1% |
| DRC | 7/31/09 | 29.11 | 32.50 | - | 98.81 | - | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% |
| JEC | 7/31/09 | 40.98 | 48.84 | - | 98.81 | - | 19.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% |
| NPSP | 7/31/09 | 3.89 | 4.50 | - | 98.81 | - | 15.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% |
| ASGN | 7/31/09 | 4.23 | 5.80 | - | 98.81 | - | 37.1% | 8.6% | 28.5% |
| AGX | 8/7/09 | 12.35 | 13.04 | - | 98.81 | - | 5.6% | 8.6% | -3.0% |
| BBND | 8/7/09 | 4.00 | 4.25 | - | 98.81 | - | 6.3% | 8.6% | -2.4% |
| LHCG | 8/7/09 | 24.55 | 31.39 | - | 98.81 | - | 27.9% | 8.6% | 19.2% |
| RGR | 8/7/09 | 11.45 | 12.60 | - | 98.81 | - | 10.0% | 8.6% | 1.4% |
| PRIM | 8/7/09 | 6.95 | 7.10 | - | 100.79 | - | 2.2% | 6.5% | -4.3% |
| SEPR | 8/7/09 | 18.12 | 22.81 | - | 100.79 | - | 25.9% | 6.5% | 19.4% |
| CEU | 8/21/09 | 5.10 | 5.70 | - | 102.96 | - | 11.8% | 4.2% | 7.5% |
| CYTK | 8/21/09 | 3.04 | 3.49 | - | 102.96 | - | 14.8% | 4.2% | 10.6% |
| CMFO | 8/28/09 | 4.55 | 4.85 | - | 102.96 | - | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| NAVR | 9/4/09 | 1.79 | 1.87 | - | 102.60 | - | 4.5% | 4.6% | -0.1% |
| WTW | 9/11/09 | 26.00 | 26.29 | - | 104.77 | - | 1.1% | 2.4% | -1.3% |
| Top 50 Portfolio | |||||||||
| Totals | 23.1% | -0.9% | 23.9% | ||||||
| 55.7% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | Closed | -26.1% | -31.0% | 4.9% | |||||
| S&P C | 107.32 | Open | 60.2% | 21.9% | 38.3% | ||||
Posts
2 comments:
When you say European or Canadian brokerage, is there a reason you don't simply use a US broker that allows you to purchase foreign securities directly? I don't use it, but I think eTrade does, doesn't it?
Albert, I suppose I'd have to do some research. I read about E*Trade's approach a while back and heard they really gave you unfavorable exchange rates.
MG
Post a Comment