Wednesday, September 16, 2009

House of Cards

I watched CNBC's special, "House of Cards" last night. It was extremely eye-opening for me. It basically walked through the housing bubble and how most people walked around with their head in the sand as it occurred. No one person was responsible, no one person had control. Many "profited", but many lost a ton in the end. So while Bear Stearns made obscene profits in the hey day, it eventually cost them the company, even though one guy made the case directly to their chief risk officer.

In hindsight, it is all so obvious. Even Greenspan was stunned at the practices going on and the structured CDOs. It is ironic, but the one party that did not suffer (a lot) but played a key role in the nefarious affair were the rating agencies, S&P and Moody's. I do still expect the shoe to drop on them (I suspect that is why WEB has sold his MCO) and the entire way ratings are done will change. You clearly can not have the party wanting the rating to pay S&P for the rating. Can you say coflict of interest?

So what is the new bubble that we're all pretending to ignore? Is there one going on right now? I think there is, and I have hinted about it here; but need to really think about what should be done.

It is of course the US dollar and all the debt our country has taken on. No one is willing to take responsibility or make unpopular decisions, so it will likely continue to spiral out of control. I suspect the ramifications will be as austere as the housing bubble; but the US won't be able to bail out the US. The first inklings are the UN considering changing the reserve currency from the US dollar (UN Panel Calls For Dollar Reserve Role To Be Eliminated).

I suspect when it starts to happen, it'll happen very fast. Foriegn countires will begin demanding much high interest rates to assume our debt. And then our debt will spiral higher due to the interest rates. This will continue until we force the political will to get our financial house in order. I expect there will be some self-correcting components, as the dollar weakens, our labor will become cheaper in a global sense and we may begin to export more.

I plan to continue migrating some assets into non-US currencies. I might even consider opening up a European or Canadian brokerage account. I'd encourage everyone to read Peter Schiff's book, I think he gets a bit extreme... but it is food for thought.

Finally, here are my open top 50 mechanical portfolio stocks... they are up OVER 60%!

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
DELL 9/20/08 16.63 16.92 - 124.12 2.49 1.7% -11.5% 13.3%
NGA 9/20/08 6.50 5.63 - 124.12 2.49 -13.4% -11.5% -1.9%
TTWO 9/20/08 16.57 12.12 - 124.12 2.49 -26.9% -11.5% -15.3%
FWLT 10/5/08 31.91 32.99 - 110.34 1.80 3.4% -1.1% 4.5%
MOS 10/5/08 40.88 53.04 0.05 110.34 1.80 29.9% -1.1% 31.0%
WRLS 10/5/08 1.82 3.50 - 110.34 1.80 92.3% -1.1% 93.4%
TSCM 10/5/08 5.09 2.74 0.03 110.34 1.80 -45.7% -1.1% -44.6%
CTCM 10/10/08 9.02 17.13 - 88.50 1.80 89.9% 23.3% 66.6%
DAR 10/10/08 7.55 7.93 - 88.50 1.80 5.0% 23.3% -18.3%
NOV 10/10/08 23.42 44.38 - 88.50 1.80 89.5% 23.3% 66.2%
PRGX 10/10/08 4.69 5.66 - 88.50 1.80 20.7% 23.3% -2.6%
PCP 10/10/08 54.15 98.46 0.04 88.50 1.80 81.9% 23.3% 58.6%
ALDN 10/10/08 9.64 11.49 - 88.50 1.80 19.2% 23.3% -4.1%
GPX 10/17/08 5.03 7.50 - 93.21 1.80 49.1% 17.1% 32.0%
BKE 11/1/08 26.34 28.04 0.20 96.83 1.80 7.2% 12.7% -5.5%
CYNO 11/1/08 8.76 11.47 - 96.83 1.80 30.9% 12.7% 18.2%
DHX 11/1/08 4.06 6.49 - 96.83 1.80 59.9% 12.7% 47.2%
GES 11/1/08 21.77 37.10 0.10 96.83 1.80 70.9% 12.7% 58.2%
HWAY 11/1/08 10.10 16.12 - 96.83 1.80 59.6% 12.7% 46.9%
WBC 11/1/08 18.37 19.58 0.07 96.83 1.80 7.0% 12.7% -5.7%
GTLS 11/7/08 11.62 21.55 - 93.86 1.80 85.5% 16.3% 69.2%
CDII 11/7/08 2.77 1.69 - 93.86 1.80 -39.0% 16.3% -55.2%
IPHS 11/7/08 19.97 20.50 0.17 93.86 1.80 3.5% 16.3% -12.7%
MSPD 11/7/08 1.31 2.75 - 93.86 1.80 109.9% 16.3% 93.7%
QLGC 11/7/08 11.49 17.79 - 93.86 1.80 54.8% 16.3% 38.6%
SCHN 11/7/08 27.07 57.03 - 93.86 1.80 110.7% 16.3% 94.4%
SVR 11/7/08 8.92 19.39 - 93.86 1.80 117.4% 16.3% 101.1%
TDC 11/7/08 14.48 26.50 - 93.86 1.80 83.0% 16.3% 66.8%
EBAY 11/7/08 14.19 24.32 - 96.83 1.80 71.4% 12.7% 58.7%
TKTM 11/15/08 5.87 12.25 - 86.62 1.80 108.7% 26.0% 82.7%
ERES 11/15/08 4.65 6.71 - 86.62 1.80 44.3% 26.0% 18.3%
FEED 11/15/08 1.76 5.34 - 86.62 1.80 203.4% 26.0% 177.4%
HCKT 11/15/08 2.57 3.03 - 86.62 1.80 17.9% 26.0% -8.1%
FLR 11/15/08 35.73 56.03 0.13 86.62 1.80 57.2% 26.0% 31.2%
GTI 11/15/08 4.79 15.34 - 86.62 1.80 220.3% 26.0% 194.3%
INTX 11/15/08 4.10 4.00 - 86.62 1.80 -2.4% 26.0% -28.4%
MSO 11/15/08 3.91 8.39 - 86.62 1.80 114.6% 26.0% 88.6%
JCG 11/15/08 11.22 36.08 - 86.62 1.80 221.6% 26.0% 195.6%
MDR 11/15/08 7.80 27.46 - 86.62 1.80 252.1% 26.0% 226.1%
ABAT 11/22/08 1.34 4.25 - 79.52 1.80 217.2% 37.2% 179.9%
ADSK 11/22/08 14.37 24.07 - 79.52 1.80 67.5% 37.2% 30.3%
GIGM 11/22/08 3.79 5.35 - 79.52 1.80 41.2% 37.2% 3.9%
OPTV 11/22/08 0.94 1.39 - 79.52 1.80 47.9% 37.2% 10.7%
PRO 11/22/08 4.14 8.06 - 79.52 1.80 94.7% 37.2% 57.5%
WTSLA 11/22/08 2.20 3.64 - 79.52 1.80 65.5% 37.2% 28.2%
AIRT 11/29/08 6.08 8.75 - 90.09 1.80 43.9% 21.1% 22.8%
BSQR 11/29/08 2.48 2.49 - 90.09 1.80 0.4% 21.1% -20.7%
CKSW 11/29/08 2.20 6.64 - 90.09 1.80 201.8% 21.1% 180.7%
IILG 11/29/08 5.30 11.52 - 90.09 1.80 117.4% 21.1% 96.2%
PBSO.PK 11/29/08 0.39 0.65 - 90.09 1.80 66.7% 21.1% 45.5%
DIVX 12/8/08 4.37 5.87 - 87.93 1.80 34.3% 24.1% 10.2%
GSIT 12/8/08 2.94 3.70 - 87.93 1.80 25.9% 24.1% 1.8%
HGRD 12/8/08 1.35 4.69 - 87.93 1.80 247.4% 24.1% 223.3%
ISIL 12/8/08 7.92 16.07 0.12 87.93 1.80 104.4% 24.1% 80.3%
MAXY 12/8/08 5.80 6.83 - 87.93 1.80 17.8% 24.1% -6.3%
PVSW 12/8/08 3.80 4.94 - 87.93 1.80 30.0% 24.1% 5.9%
DDMX 12/13/08 11.13 17.26 - 88.99 1.80 55.1% 22.6% 32.5%
PSOF 12/13/08 2.74 5.21 - 88.99 1.80 90.1% 22.6% 67.5%
ITWO 12/27/08 5.61 15.87 - 87.16 1.08 182.9% 24.4% 158.5%
JOYG 12/27/08 21.95 46.99 - 87.16 1.08 114.1% 24.4% 89.7%
TRMS 12/27/08 1.03 2.55 - 87.16 1.08 147.6% 24.4% 123.2%
CTGX 1/3/09 3.18 8.08 - 92.96 1.08 154.1% 16.6% 137.5%
PMD 1/3/09 6.44 6.76 - 92.96 1.08 5.0% 16.6% -11.6%
HPY 1/24/09 8.54 14.60 - 83.11 1.08 71.0% 30.4% 40.5%
HLIT 1/31/09 5.15 6.90 - 82.83 1.08 34.0% 30.9% 3.1%
HGT 1/31/09 13.06 18.46 - 82.83 1.08 41.3% 30.9% 10.5%
CNU 2/8/09 1.96 3.18 - 86.98 1.08 62.2% 24.6% 37.6%
SJT 2/8/09 19.05 19.25 - 86.98 1.08 1.0% 24.6% -23.6%
SGU 2/8/09 2.55 3.55 0.07 86.98 1.08 41.9% 24.6% 17.3%
TC 2/8/09 4.33 13.01 - 86.98 1.08 200.5% 24.6% 175.8%
bioc 2/14/09 3.72 3.63 - 82.76 1.08 -2.4% 31.0% -33.4%
FORR 2/14/09 17.56 23.17 - 82.76 1.08 31.9% 31.0% 1.0%
ZYXI.OB 2/14/09 1.20 1.01 - 82.76 1.08 -15.6% 31.0% -46.6%
FRD 2/21/09 4.95 6.12 - 77.42 1.08 23.6% 40.0% -16.4%
SOLR 2/21/09 4.22 5.80 - 77.42 1.08 37.4% 40.0% -2.6%
MTXX 2/21/09 17.90 5.90 - 77.42 1.08 -67.0% 40.0% -107.1%
TYPE 2/21/09 3.02 8.50 - 77.42 1.08 181.5% 40.0% 141.4%
PTIE 2/21/09 5.41 5.32 - 77.42 1.08 -1.7% 40.0% -41.7%
PDO 2/21/09 3.19 5.12 - 77.42 1.08 60.5% 40.0% 20.5%
SAPE 2/21/09 3.38 8.02 - 77.42 1.08 137.3% 40.0% 97.3%
VDSI 2/21/09 5.25 8.20 - 77.42 1.08 56.2% 40.0% 16.2%
IGTE 2/21/09 2.99 7.07 - 77.42 1.08 136.5% 40.0% 96.4%
DECK 2/28/09 41.27 77.27 - 73.93 1.08 87.2% 46.6% 40.6%
KTII 2/28/09 55.48 95.87 - 73.93 1.08 72.8% 46.6% 26.2%
INT 2/28/09 29.01 50.45 - 73.93 1.08 73.9% 46.6% 27.3%
ICAD 2/28/09 0.90 2.40 - 77.42 1.08 166.7% 40.0% 126.7%
EXBD 3/6/09 12.96 24.31 - 68.92 1.08 87.6% 57.3% 30.3%
DISH 3/6/09 9.27 18.46 - 68.92 1.08 99.1% 57.3% 41.9%
QLTI 3/6/09 1.41 4.39 - 68.92 1.08 211.3% 57.3% 154.1%
SRDX 3/6/09 16.87 23.94 - 68.92 1.08 41.9% 57.3% -15.4%
INFI 4/16/09 5.83 6.92 - 87.08 0.52 18.7% 23.8% -5.1%
CRAY 5/1/09 3.98 8.84 - 87.89 0.52 122.1% 22.7% 99.4%
TWX 5/1/09 22.84 29.61 - 87.89 0.52 29.6% 22.7% 6.9%
RST 5/1/09 29.83 22.80 - 87.89 0.52 -23.6% 22.7% -46.3%
ULCM.PK 5/1/09 2.18 2.30 - 87.89 0.52 5.5% 22.7% -17.2%
AAV 5/15/09 3.41 6.91 - 88.71 0.52 102.6% 21.6% 81.1%
AMED 5/29/09 30.43 43.80 - 92.53 0.52 43.9% 16.5% 27.4%
UTA 5/29/09 7.90 13.27 - 92.53 0.52 68.0% 16.5% 51.4%
PFE 6/5/09 14.51 16.42 - 94.55 0.52 13.2% 14.1% -0.9%
VM 6/5/09 4.55 4.99 - 94.55 0.52 9.7% 14.1% -4.4%
ONTY 6/11/09 2.60 6.59 - 95.08 0.52 153.5% 13.4% 140.0%
BPI 6/19/09 16.74 16.03 - 92.04 - -4.2% 16.6% -20.8%
GME 6/19/09 22.95 25.82 - 92.04 - 12.5% 16.6% -4.1%
SHAW 7/10/09 23.69 32.83 - 87.96 - 38.6% 22.0% 16.6%
RTN 7/24/09 45.39 46.17 - 98.06 - 1.7% 9.4% -7.7%
CBZ 7/31/09 6.54 7.15 - 98.81 - 9.3% 8.6% 0.7%
CBI 7/31/09 13.95 17.82 - 98.81 - 27.7% 8.6% 19.1%
DRC 7/31/09 29.11 32.50 - 98.81 - 11.6% 8.6% 3.0%
JEC 7/31/09 40.98 48.84 - 98.81 - 19.2% 8.6% 10.6%
NPSP 7/31/09 3.89 4.50 - 98.81 - 15.7% 8.6% 7.1%
ASGN 7/31/09 4.23 5.80 - 98.81 - 37.1% 8.6% 28.5%
AGX 8/7/09 12.35 13.04 - 98.81 - 5.6% 8.6% -3.0%
BBND 8/7/09 4.00 4.25 - 98.81 - 6.3% 8.6% -2.4%
LHCG 8/7/09 24.55 31.39 - 98.81 - 27.9% 8.6% 19.2%
RGR 8/7/09 11.45 12.60 - 98.81 - 10.0% 8.6% 1.4%
PRIM 8/7/09 6.95 7.10 - 100.79 - 2.2% 6.5% -4.3%
SEPR 8/7/09 18.12 22.81 - 100.79 - 25.9% 6.5% 19.4%
CEU 8/21/09 5.10 5.70 - 102.96 - 11.8% 4.2% 7.5%
CYTK 8/21/09 3.04 3.49 - 102.96 - 14.8% 4.2% 10.6%
CMFO 8/28/09 4.55 4.85 - 102.96 - 6.6% 4.2% 2.4%
NAVR 9/4/09 1.79 1.87 - 102.60 - 4.5% 4.6% -0.1%
WTW 9/11/09 26.00 26.29 - 104.77 - 1.1% 2.4% -1.3%






Top 50 Portfolio







Totals 23.1% -0.9% 23.9%
55.7% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed -26.1% -31.0% 4.9%
S&P C

107.32

Open 60.2% 21.9% 38.3%

2 comments:

Homer315 said...

When you say European or Canadian brokerage, is there a reason you don't simply use a US broker that allows you to purchase foreign securities directly? I don't use it, but I think eTrade does, doesn't it?

Marsh_Gerda said...

Albert, I suppose I'd have to do some research. I read about E*Trade's approach a while back and heard they really gave you unfavorable exchange rates.

MG