Saturday, September 19, 2009

Surprising Streak

September is being very good to my portfolio. The portfolio has had 12 straight up days, after a shaky September 1st. I am now up 71% on the year and only 6% below break-even. More amazing, I am up 140% from my bottom on November 21st last year. Yes, I am "happy" to be only 6% under breakeven.

My transition to using the Mechanical approach for my portfolio is also going well. I now have 17 stocks in my portfolio that were selected using my mechanical approach, and they are up an average of 40%.

I am still 21% in cash, so I certainly have room for more stocks, but new names to the mechanical portfolio are drying up a bit as it seems to be most active in times of volatility and times of earnings coming out.

I don't think the official list for the weekend is out yet, but it does appear there will be at least one new name to consider: MIPS.

They are a small company (167m market cap) that makes parts primarily for the home entertainment industry. Frankly, that doesn't sound like a boom area. Here is my calculation of their return and EY:



mips
+ Operating Income After Depreciation 21.49
- Minority Interest - Income Account -
= Income for Calculation 21.49

Diluted Shares Outstanding 45.465

Share Price 3.72
+ Market Cap Calc 169.13
+ Preferred Capital -
+ Debt in Current Liabilities 4.99
+ Long-Term Debt 7.81

Cash and Short-Term Investments 44.77
- Excess Cash 35.65
= Enterprise Value 146.28






+ Property Plant and Equipment - Net 2.61
+ Receivables 2.46
+ Inventories -
+ Other Current Assests 1.30
+ Working Cash 9.12
- Accounts Payable 2.31
- Current Liabilities - Other 10.58
= Invested Capital 2.61
Earnings Yield 15%
ROIC 824%

So you can see they have a high ROIC and they also have a strong balalnce sheet with excess cash. Revenues and income fell off the table in the 2nd quarter, with revenues down from 21m to 13m and income down from $5m to almost 0. Hard to get real fired up about that. I think their numbers are a bit deceptive. They sold off a chunk of their business (which still shows up in past income), and they get advantage of cash from sale. I will be taking a pass.

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