Friday, July 27, 2007

Out the Window - For Strong Stomachs Only

I could not take it any more. I sold 3 stocks today against the rules and bought 3 stocks that were on the top 25 list. No tax impact as all 3 stocks were essentially near my purchase price. There, I said it. Yes I was weak, but I feel better about my 3 new stocks.

Gone: CREL, PDS and MEOH (which hardly counts).
In: VSNT, KSWS and WNR.

This evening I read a MF article about PDS (Precise Pain at Precision Drilling). They agreed with me that it was an extremely bearish conference call. They think in the long run it'll help PDS as the weakness may bankrupt weaker competitors. Made me feel better about selling 1st thhing this morning.

I was certainly right that the WSTG quarter left something to be desired. Down 19%. Brutal. At least I'll get an extra penny dividend. I do hope that this downward move is temporary.

NXG reported their earnings this morning (Northgate reports strong quarterly cash flow of $43.7 million - A third large gold-copper porphyry system discovered at Kemess). I have to say that I thought the numbers were not very good. I came very very close to making them my 4th stock to sell early today and would have bought TCK (on the top 25). I did not, because of their comment about the discovery. I won't be surprised if they fall off the lists though, they really made a lot less $ than 4 quarters ago.

* Warning * Warning * Warning * Warning * Warning * Warning * Warning!
The graph below may cause physical distress. One should not be standing when viewing the graph. If You begin to feel like vomiting turn your computer screen upside down. If you have heart problems, it is advisable not to scroll down.

This is my weekly graph showing gains and losses vs the Russell 3000 benchmark. My MFI portfolio is the magenta line (you'll know it when you see it) and the R3000 is the Blue line.



Yes I "lost" a lot of money this week. But to keep things in perspective, I am still up YTD (7%) and I am beating the benchmark (barely).

Six stocks were up for me: HW, NXG, TGB, UG, VSNT and USHS. Even with the WSTG bloodletting, I was actually even with the market, which surprised me.

Some numbers:
My MFI portfolio dropped 8.3% during the week.
If you toss in last Friday, it is an even 9% drop.
My overall portfolio was down 7.5%, so not quite as bad on non MFI side.
My biggest purchase in the freefall was KF at about $41.50. I had been looking for an entry into Korea on the Intl side and the 6% drop was just want I wanted.

The whole drop is disturbing. I think one reason MFI stocks in general fared worse is because ironically many of them were considered takeover candidates because of their strong balance sheets. With more risk being priced in and banks less willing to issue debt, there will be less takeovers, which caused these "attractive" stocks to lose that takeover premium. Just my uneducated opinion.

Here ar the current standings in the stocks contest. Not much green, but note how well the top 25 portfolios are holding up. (trouble pulling this in)

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