Tuesday, July 31, 2007

One Good, One Bad

Earnings season is always "exciting", but it seems much more so to me since I started using MFI. I think it is because before MFI I rarely bought a stock under $1b in market cap. And while those types of stocks have swings, the smaller MFI stocks that I buy are even wilder.

IVAC was bad news today. I suspected as much when I analyzed them on Sunday and it was confirmed when I read their release on Monday evening. Then it was triple confirmed when they dropped over 16% today. Not much to do but grin and bear it. We could easily take another hammering next quarter until their product cycle rolls over. In the meantime, they are financially strong and won't be fading away. I can wait.

HW actually had banner earnings this morning. Probably the first positive quarter they have had since I bought them 18 months ago (Headwaters 3Q Profit Jumps 68 Percent). I don't know whether it was the quarter being so good, or whether expectations were so low. They popped up almost 8%... they were up more like 15% early on, but I don't need to mention it was a tough day in the market.

Speaking of tough days, AHM, the stock I mentioned yesterday that I have been following since the spring when it was in the mid 20s... it opened today in the afternoon after taking a breather for the past day and a half. It opened up down 90%. Ouch. They are talking bankruptcy. I am sure glad I avoided that pothole. I did buy TMA, but it looks much better in the mortgage fiasco ( Is Thornburg Mortgage's (TMA - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) 10% dividend too good to be true? I also noticed that this stock fared pretty well during the huge selloff.
Any opinions?
). I actually have convinced myself that after all these weaker players are weeded out, that the remaining stronger players may have a chance to make a lot of moolah.

FDG reported earnings late last night. They seemed "okay" to me. The market did seem to like them. They were up about $1.50 earlier in the day, but got drug down with the market and ended up 15 cents.

VCI is one stock I am glad I didn't buy. I first thought about buying them between $13 and $14 in January when they made my blue light special list. Then they shot up to $18-$19 and I was kicking myself for not buying them Well, today they closed at $11.87. They bought a competitor (advco) this Spring and it looks to me like they're drowning in the debt. Perhaps they paid too much? It is hard to make these mergers work.

1 comment:

Geo said...

Hi,
I have a question regarding ranking the MFI stocks. I took the top 25 stocks from the MFI website and then also took the top 50 (using $50M for both)and put them side by side on a spreadsheet. I then ranked them by earnings and EPS (from etrade). I ranked both criteria from 1-25 (or 50) and then took the sum and ranked them. I then compared the top thru bottom stocks for the 25 and 50 side by side.
I had assumed that the top 25 would also be the top 25 of the 50 but that was not the case. Have you tried this test? Do you have any comments on it?