Monday, July 30, 2007

Bummer

Do I harp too much day-to-day? Perhaps I do. I think for a stretch, I'll comment on my portfolio moves only weekly. I understand that even one week moves are generally not meaningful (though there are traders that watch the tape in one minute moves). But I argue that I am thinking long term. I am hoping that my weekly graphs will be interesting to people 5 years from now.

I hope people understand that while I do let my mood swing with the market on the pages of this blog, I am not (as Jim Cramer puts it) "drinking scotch while laying on a linoleum floor". I understand that investing is a LT exercise and I'd be happy to compare my results (which I have tracked very closely) since the summer of 2002 with anyone. I have done well and intend to continue doing well.

WPCS announced earnings this evening. They were a little cryptic (which always worries me) as they didn't say how the quarter was, but instead said what the full year was. Doing a little subtraction, it looks like an ok quarter, making 18 cents. So they made 72 cents in total. Remember, they guided at 88 cents for FY 2008.

Bad News Stocks - Two MFI stocks had exceedingly bad news today.

MTEX - which had already taken a major haircut for a TX AG investigation was down another 10% as they pre-announced a miserable quarter (Mannatech, Inc. Pre-Announces Second Quarter, 2007 Results). Despite their problems, it seems they have boosted their incentive plans greatly. It isn't pretty.

IVAC - I commented yesterday that I was worried about the lack of a backlog for their upcoming call. I was right and the market has hammered them AH (Intevac Announces Results for the Second Quarter of 2007). I think they're between product cycles.

REIT Wrong

I haven't seen a word on CNBC, but AHM did the unthinkable on Friday (AHM Halted, No Word From Company). They reneged on an announced dividend. They were supposed to pay a 70 cent dividend on Friday and they didn't. How can that happen? What is interesting (in a way) is that I started following AHM in the Spring when James Stewart (who I think is an excellent investor) siad he had bought AHM because he thought they had been unfairly dinged from the sub-prime fiasco and that AHM had limited exposure to sub-prime. So what does this mean? Either Mr Stewart was wrong, and AHM had much more exposure to subprime OR subprime is a faulty label and this crisis is spreading into the levels above sub-prime.

I have to shake my head at Cerberus Capital. They bought 51% of GMAC just before all this started hitting. Now they're buying Chrysler. I hope they're making money somewhere.

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