Monday, May 14, 2007

Down in the Dumps

Another not so good day. Actually pretty much on par with the market. I continued mining my data and can report that I have found nothing. So far it seems JG was spot on when he said he could not develop good rules for selling.

Even my buying rules are starting to appear to be mirages. My two Blue Light Special seem to be regressing to the mean. My Just Listed Portfolio has had a couple stocks crash and burn.

Ezenia announced earnings after the bell. They basically made no money. Lots of excuses and promises for the future, but they ae clearly no longer an MFI stock. Here is what they said:

"The budgetary situation within DOD and uncertainty created by the on- going Defense Information System Agency (DISA) Network Centric Enterprise Services (NCES) bidding process clearly affected our results in Q1," noted Khoa Nguyen, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Ezenia. "As these difficult business conditions continue into 2007 and the Company moves forward with its investments in the development of advanced products and further hiring in the sales and marketing organizations, earnings for the year 2007 will be under pressure. However, the long-term outlook in the collaboration market and our own opportunity remains strong and promising. The Company continues to execute on its efforts to expand the existing DOD and IC customer base, pursue new opportunities with non-DOD agencies addressing the threat of terrorism and natural disasters, and be opportunistic on potential commercial applications. Furthermore, we believe that our investments in more robust marketing and sales organizations, coupled with current product enhancements and upgrades and development of next-generation products, will enable the Company to compete more effectively and grow more aggressively in the future."

Not sure if this was priced in. Guess I'll find out tomorrow. It has been a painful stock, down 40% so far.

PNCL announced they're buying back $30m of stock (Pinnacle Airlines Corp. Announces $30 Million Share Repurchase Program). That is 10% of the company, so is significant. They really are in strong financial shape.

TGB announced their earnings after the bell as well (Taseko Announces Second Quarter Results for Fiscal 2007). I always struggle reading Canadian reports. Hmm, they look ok. Basically the same (9 cents per share) as last quarter. Y o Y they were quite strong making $11m CAD vs about $3m CAD last year. No idea what people expected.

I was looking at my current stocks. I have to say that WSTG is the one I am most excited about. It'd be nice to have a stock start moving up sharply or be bought out!


Justin said...

Stay strong. I don't have JG's book in front of me, but I recall him writing that you have to give this strategy time (did he write 3 years?). Overall, my portfolio is underperforming the benchmark, but I'm going to stick with it for two more years. I think many people that read his book "fall of the wagon" because they lack the discipline/fortitude to keep plugging away. Thanks for maintaining this blog!

Stonewall said...

I agree with Justin's post. Having only a year or two worth of MF stocks is simply not enough to draw strong conclusions on the effectiveness of the Formula. One or two exceptionally poor (or great) stock performances can have a huge impact on our averages over such a short period. Have faith that the Formula will grind 'em out.

All we can do in the meantime is study, read, and make well-researched selections.

You've done some great work with this blog. It's a fantastic resource for MF investors.