Friday, May 18, 2007

Back Test Study

My friend who is the Perl expert has come through for me. He has written the code to pull the data needed to calculate the EY and ROIC for a list of stocks for each of the last 5 years. So my goal is to have him create a flat file with the data needed for the calcs along with a bunch of other data from the financials.

Then I can create the "list" at various points in time. It isn't going to be perfect, but I think it'll be the best back test out there by normal people. Once I have the list, I can see whether there are other variables that are correlated with good results. I will also have the capability to create my own real time list.

It is a lot of work. I doubt I'll be able to analyze thoroughly until this summer. But I am excited that the first key step is almost complete. Stay tuned.

Finally, I did finally have a reversal yesterday. I started the day down a bunch (again) and fell to 4.2% behind the benchmark midday. But then I actually came back and beat the benchmark and made $ on a down day. We'll see if momementum continues today.

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