Friday, May 04, 2007

A Bad Two Weeks - Catch Up Blog

Since I was lazy last week and didn't publish my graph and charts, I'll start off with them 1st thing. The chart is a thing of ugliness the past two weeks, though it even looked worse after Tuesday's fiasco.


As you may remember, the chart shows how much $ my portfolio has made versus a hypothetical Russell 3000 benchmark portfolio. The magenta line shows my gains. As you can see, I had moved about $10,000 ahead of them. I am now about $9,500 behind. That sharp drop in the magenta line is not a good thing. Plenty of weeks to go though!

I did buy AEO today. It was a steal at $28.40. I am thrilled to get them so cheaply. PNCL was pared back and has been reset in my charts. As a reminder, I "sell" all stocks after a year and they go into the sold/closed bucket. Then PNCL now shows up as a new stock with a new price. This way my closed position always shows annual closed postions and in time the return on closed stocks should approach my annual IRR. Then my open positions are always under a year old. In reality, I sold a portion of my PNCL. I hope I have explained my approach clearly. So the chart below shows my current portfolio, the dates bought and pct change including dividends. The bottom part shows my gains on closed positions (about 20 stocks) along with overall gains and comparison with the benchmark:

Current Portfolio
Stock Purchase Date Cost Current Gain
VPHM 09/11/06 $11.79 $16.08 36.4%
TGB 03/27/07 $2.64 $3.50 32.6%
CHKE 05/16/06 $37.55 $46.95 32.2%
FTO 05/15/06 $28.76 $35.87 25.3%
KG 05/31/06 $17.31 $21.05 21.6%
LRCX 02/26/07 $46.66 $55.70 19.4%
BBSI 09/06/06 $19.56 $23.12 18.9%
ISNS 07/07/06 $13.17 $15.37 16.7%
PDS 03/01/07 $22.58 $25.41 14.0%
MTEX 05/22/06 $13.11 $14.44 12.7%
UNTD 05/01/07 $14.46 $16.02 10.8%
WSTG 04/16/07 $14.83 $15.98 8.7%
ASEI 10/05/06 $45.85 $49.63 8.2%
ANF 03/05/07 $74.81 $80.12 7.1%
CREL 02/26/07 $12.50 $13.15 5.2%
NOOF 04/27/07 $8.50 $8.86 4.2%
GVHR 04/03/07 $19.17 $19.65 3.0%
AEO 05/04/07 $28.40 $28.78 1.3%
BLDR 09/18/06 $15.91 $16.08 1.1%
THO 03/26/07 $40.30 $40.36 0.1%
PNCL 05/02/07 $17.07 $17.03 -0.2%
JTX 04/09/07 $28.70 $28.48 -0.8%
SHOO 01/17/07 $32.36 $31.25 -3.4%
ORCT 06/02/06 $11.83 $11.29 -4.6%
DGX 02/26/07 $52.11 $48.92 -5.9%
HW 02/27/07 $24.00 $21.23 -11.5%
TRLG 06/13/06 $17.02 $15.00 -11.9%
PACR 02/26/07 $28.26 $24.74 -11.9%
EGY 02/05/07 $6.42 $5.54 -13.7%
FDG 05/31/06 $34.03 $26.18 -14.3%
IVAC 03/06/07 $26.12 $21.05 -19.4%
RAIL 05/26/06 $58.18 $46.37 -20.0%
EZEN.OB 06/19/06 $2.84 $1.70 -40.0%
OVTI 05/31/06 $27.79 $14.89 -46.4%





Gain/Loss Open Positions ($):
$9,885
Gain/Loss Open Positions (%):
2.1%
Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($):
$46,167
Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%):
21.2%
Total Gain/Loss ($):
$56,052
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($):
$65,452
Annual IRR:
16.8%
Total Gain/Loss (%):
13.7%

PACR got pummelled today. Down about 10% based on their earnings. That means I had two disasters this week between PACR and IVAC. Thankfully stocks like PDS and TGB (note from table above TGB is up about 32%) had solid days and despite PACR I actually outperformed the indices.

Other MFI news

TGIS was sold by me just in time as it hit its anniversary on Monday. Down 10% today for no reason at all. I do still have some in sidecar, which is a drag.

CECO and WON had great days today. They powered my Blue Light Special Portfolios (the January one is up 12.7% vs 6% for benchmark, I wish my portfolio was doing so well). First here is the January Portfolio I created (reminder Blue Light Stocks are MFI stocks that had dropped at least 15% and were still MFI stocks):


Then the March Blue Light Portfolio had a spurt and is now up 11.2% to 8.8% for the benchmark. These sleepy stocks that have been on MFI lists forever can still have some juice!


MTEX reported earnings after the bell today (strange to do it on a Friday afternoon). They seemed pretty good to me (Mannatech, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2007 EPS Increase of 18.2%, Net Sales up 5.9%), though I seem to have been snakebit lately. They did go up about 5% this evening. May be good timing for me as MTEX is up for its one year around May 20th. I haven't decided whether to renew.

Well, I have rambled long enough. I do have more to ramble on, so perhaps I'll post more tomorrow. Now to go drown my sorrow over the Mavericks losing to the Warriors.

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