But it could have been much much worse. AVCI announced their earnings last night and pretty much as I suspected. Their one big product has run its course and so they are changing their focus. AVCI dropped over 30% today. I am not optimistic that they are anywhere close to done dropping. I think they have a bit over $5 per share, and probably have an earning stream of another $1. So $6 is the floor. But I don't know what they'll be selling or who they'll be selling it to in a year.
I do feel badly for any readers who lost $ on AVCI.
I did have two companies report their earnings today. One before the bell (DGX) and one after the bell (CREL). DGX seemed not so good to me as they had lost a major contract (UNH). But they held up relatively well. CREL had pre-announced so I don't think anyone is surprised. They did provide guidance, and it seemed ok. The one item I don't understand is why CREL has such a large diverence between non-GAAP earnings (which are positive) and GAAP earnings (which seem not so hot). I'll have to do a little digging, not that I intend to sell another stock early.
I just missed on TGIS today. I put in a bid order for $11.90 at lunch today to add them as a sidecar. If I had offered close to $12 I would have surely filled the order. Then around 2pm they announced an extention of a contract, and the stock shot up 7.5%. Darn it! I will likely retain TGIS after my year is up on May 1st. It isn't on the list, but I think that is a data issue. The one stock I think I'll buy in next pass will be NOOF. They fit in the small company with dividend profile. I figure their diviy will be between 3.5% and 4%.
Speaking of dividends, PDS announced their monthly dividend. 19 cents. That is pretty nice. 19 x 12 would be $2.28. For a $25 stock, that is around 9%. Sweet.
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5 comments:
Nice call getting out of AVCI. I still own it but can't complain, bought it at 8.45 a couple months ago so I'm still up about 15% and have a $2 dividend on the way which would add another 25%. It was crazy how quick it went up so I can't complain if it goes down quick too. Some MFI stocks I buy due to analyzing them but others I buy on their story. I bought this because I thought they may have something with their new technology soapstone, so it was more of the story and less the fundamentals. I also was sick of analyzing all the stocks on the list and decided to just go with the first one I liked at all. I guess we'll see what happens long term with it. What do you think about the huge dividend? I was thinking of buying some in my "sidecar" and then selling it right away after the dividend. Wonder if alot of people think the same way and so it goes up before the dividend and drops right after negating the gain.
I think the dividend will be a wash. The stock will drop close to 2 dollars the day after the dividend. People should check with their tax advisor to see how they'll be taxed. Many special dividends are considered return of capital and taxed as ordinary income.
MG
MG, you may be right concerning TGIS. While I have not calculated EY and ROC based on the latest financials, I can confirm that Compustat has the data for the December quarter flagged as preliminary, which is really ridiculous when you consider the company is reporting its results for the March quarter late next week.
Regards,
Tony
I owe you big time on AVCI. I'm an avid reader of your posts and actually bought AVCI after you wrote about them when you bought, so when I saw your post prior to earnings and that you were breaking the rules. I followed suit. It's the first time I broke the MFI rules myself, but I got burned by PLAY last summer. Anyway, thanks for the great blog! (and for helping me get a 45% return on AVCI in a few months!!)
Tony: I wonder if it is tied to TGIS saying they were doing an internal investigation on stock options. That might throw everything in limbo for Compustat.
Mike: Glad you got out of AVCI. I do hope people do their own research though. I am in no way qualified to give financial advice.
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