Mucho Gracias to Tony! I used his new and improved adjustments to the formulas (Magic Formula Investor Blog ) and basically matched the MFI website. I checked the fine print of my Fidelity financial statements in their research section and guess what? Their source is S&P Compustat! Now we're cooking with gas!This solves a major worry for me. What if the MFI site disappears? It is ok now, because I can replicate (I believe) the list. I have a friend who is a most-excellent Perl programmer. I think I am going to engage him to write a program to mine the necessary data from Fidelity. Then sorting and ranking will be simple. Stay tuned.
I don't know if people have noticed, but there has been a lot of chatter about railroads lately. Warren Buffett bought a big stake in BNF. Cramer was talking about playing the boom in railroads by buying KOP. Hey, I own RAIL! What could be more railroad than that?
ASEI has been in a death spiral lately. Since April it has gone from almost $53 to $47.59 on no negative news I can see. It has also fallen off the MFI lists since November, but my calcs (thanks Tony!) show an 11% EY and 82% ROIC. It is a bit discouraging. I was about 10K ahead of the benchmark just 2 weeks ago. I am now trailing by $1,500, even with the timely jettison of AVCI. At least the sidecar is now up by $31K.
Earnings watch:
- PDS - had doom and gloom earnings this morning (Precision Drilling's Cautious Optimism). Stock did eke out small gains.
- TGIS had decent numbers after the bell (Thomas Group Announces First Quarter 2007 Results). It was up in AH trading. I actually sold my sidecar TGIS that I bought yesterday as it spiked up a $1 today. Talk about a quick 9% return!
- BBSI posted their numbers today (Barrett Business Q1 earnings rise). I'll tell you, BBSI is one well-run company. I am up about 40% and they keep churning out good numbers.
- BLDR had horrible earnings (Builders FirstSource Reports First Quarter 2007 Results). They were so bad that I think they're in danger of falling off the MFI screens. Their income before taxes was a paltry $369,000 compared with $31m from a year ago. Yikes! Sales down 30%. Then they say they expect negative conditions to remain through 2007 and possibly into 2008. Remind me again why i bought this stock?
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7 comments:
What were Tony's adjustments? I wasn't able to find them on his site.
Thanks,
Nick
MG:
I'm not sure it's safe to assume that you will get the same results using the data from Fidelity as you would get from the MFI site. I will need to do a little more digging -- I have access to Fidelity as well -- to confirm/refute this. I'm concerned that Fidelity may not provide the details for some of the adjustments Greenblatt is making for things like restricted cash and minority interest. I'll report back after I've had more time to look under the covers.
I'm in BLDR, too. I'm sticking to my guns and will hold it.
Thanks for your work on replicating the MFI screens. I'm nervous about them being gone too.
I will wait to see what Tony says. But I am also going to try some more stocks. It was working pretty well for the 8 or 9 I entered. If it continues to work well, I'll post the spreadsheet in Yahoo Groups. Only people who use Fidelity can use it though as it is formatted for a cut and paste of IS and BS from fidelity. (though it shows the formulas)
I will hold BLDR as well, but I am not exactly bullish.
I feel your pain on BLDR, guys, but I couldn't stay. That report was just too darned ugly, and I was looking for an excuse to buy WIRE anyway ... so I'm sort of staying within the industry, at least.
Nick, my adjustments were posted as a response to MG's prior blog post here.
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