Arrivederci Avci

Great day ending a great week. Portfolio up almost another 1%. I don't have graphs and charts yet, will try and update later this weekend. My portfolio is a rocket though, you'll see it when you see the graph. I do know I am up over 60K in total and have about a 12K edge on the benchmark.

I am Not a Potted Plant

I did break the rules for the 2nd time today. I sold AVCI, which was up about 55% for me. I know, I know, I only bought it 2 months ago. But here is what I read in their 10K today:

We cannot predict future revenue volumes, however we do not believe that the revenue volumes experienced during 2006 will be sustainable and we are planning the business at reduced revenue volumes.

Service revenue increased $1.6 million to $6.4 million in 2006 from $4.8 million in 2005. The increase in service revenue was primarily due to a larger installed base of products.

One customer, namely AT&T accounted for 94% of the gross revenue in 2006 and 2005. We anticipate future core router product revenue to continue to be highly concentrated from this one customer.

I can't ignore these paragraphs. One belief I have in MFI is that the ttm income has to reproducable. Remember FORD anyone? AVCI is essentially saying they don't believe 2006 is sustainable. Then all the business with one customer... reminds me of PLAY. So I sold today, not wanting to hear their quarterly results next week. Perhaps they have a great product and will get new customers, but it seems to me a strong statement when they are "planning business (meaning people to me) for reduced revenues".

I also used this great week to sell my side car holdings (now up over $31k) of BBSI and VPHM. So I am sitting in more cash than normal.

Graphs and tables to follow tomorrow. I am going to watch "An Inconvinient Truth" now.