Another week in the books. Started off badly as my MFI portfolio dropped 10K on Monday, but battled back to a draw. Who knows where the markets will go from here? I expect a lot of volatility for the next 6 months. A bigger correction could really rock the people on margin and the hedge funds. Jubak has a very good article about the likelihood of a correction (Jubak Article) and the necessity for a correction. With MFI, I have a plan. We’ll see whether it is a good plan after we get through the rapids.
Some one posted a study that investors who don’t react daily to news and market movements actually do better. I have to say that that doesn’t surprise me. I rarely make savvy moves when they are emotional and quick. Sometimes I think it is a wonder I make $ at investing at all.
Stocks of Note
TRLG was down about 5% today. It has really been going up or down in a classic long-short tug-o-war. I did see an article suggesting that TRLG will be guiding lower. I didn’t really follow the logic (I don’t understand specifically the earnings target in Collins’ contract and why that suggests a shortfall. It could just be that Collins wanted an easy hurdle in his 1st year) but have posted it here:
"We remain cautious on shares of True Religion as the company continues to make significant changes to its business plan and management structure," Mintz wrote in a research note. "Although we believe the appointment of Peter Collins as chief financial officer could enable it to better handle issues relating to Sarbanes-Oxley compliance, we are concerned about the number of changes the company is currently undertaking and believe that they could have a near-term impact on performance."
Mintz added that an earnings target that was part of Collin's employment agreement indicates 2007 earnings will be below his estimate. Since his estimate is below Wall's Streets consensus to begin with, the company could guide 2007 earnings below current consensus on its upcoming earnings call, Mintz suggested.
Not quite sure how this Mintz guy got the contract, I don’t see it posted with the SEC. Guess we’ll know more next week when TRLG posts their Christmas quarter.
EGY continued to fall off the table, down another 10 cents. Since their earnings report, which I didn’t like, they are off about 18%.
TGIS bounced back about 4%. I have commented many times in this blog that TGIS is an excellent day-trader stock. When it gets around $10.00 to $10.50 that is a solid bottom.
Standard weekly graphs and charts below. They don’t really tell the story of a topsy-turvy week.
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| Current Portfolio | ||||
| Stock | Purchase Date | Cost | Current | Gain |
| PNCL | 5/4/2006 | $6.68 | $17.37 | 160.0% |
| PGI | 4/7/2006 | $7.71 | $10.62 | 37.7% |
| ISNS | 7/7/2006 | $13.17 | $18.00 | 36.6% |
| VPHM | 9/11/2006 | $11.79 | $15.29 | 29.7% |
| DLX | 4/3/2006 | $26.41 | $30.57 | 20.1% |
| CHKE | 5/16/2006 | $37.55 | $42.34 | 19.9% |
| BBSI | 9/6/2006 | $19.56 | $23.28 | 19.7% |
| MTEX | 5/22/2006 | $13.11 | $14.95 | 15.9% |
| ASEI | 10/5/2006 | $45.85 | $52.91 | 15.4% |
| BLDR | 9/18/2006 | $15.91 | $17.72 | 11.4% |
| TGIS | 5/1/2006 | $10.34 | $10.99 | 8.7% |
| KG | 5/31/2006 | $17.31 | $18.54 | 7.1% |
| FTO | 5/15/2006 | $28.76 | $30.60 | 6.8% |
| CREL | 2/26/2007 | $12.50 | $12.85 | 2.8% |
| IVAC | 3/6/2007 | $26.12 | $26.69 | 2.2% |
| TRLG | 6/13/2006 | $17.02 | $17.38 | 2.1% |
| ANF | 3/5/2007 | $74.81 | $75.16 | 0.5% |
| AVCI | 2/20/2007 | $8.65 | $8.66 | 0.1% |
| PONR | 5/9/2006 | $30.48 | $30.46 | -0.1% |
| PACR | 2/26/2007 | $28.26 | $27.58 | -2.4% |
| LRCX | 2/26/2007 | $46.66 | $45.51 | -2.5% |
| PDS | 3/1/2007 | $22.58 | $21.92 | -2.9% |
| DGX | 2/26/2007 | $52.11 | $49.72 | -4.6% |
| HW | 2/27/2007 | $24.00 | $22.88 | -4.7% |
| ORCT | 6/2/2006 | $11.83 | $10.95 | -7.4% |
| SHOO | 1/17/2007 | $32.36 | $29.39 | -9.2% |
| RAIL | 5/26/2006 | $58.18 | $48.35 | -16.6% |
| EGY | 2/5/2007 | $6.42 | $5.26 | -18.1% |
| EZEN.OB | 6/19/2006 | $2.84 | $2.10 | -25.9% |
| FDG | 5/31/2006 | $34.03 | $22.59 | -26.5% |
| OVTI | 5/31/2006 | $27.79 | $12.34 | -55.6% |
| | | | | |
| Gain/Loss Open Positions ($): | $20,199 | |||
| Gain/Loss Open Positions (%): | 5.1% | |||
| Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($): | $14,457 | |||
| Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%): | 9.8% | |||
| Total Gain/Loss ($): | $34,656 | |||
| Benchmark Gain/Loss ($): | $32,619 | |||
| Annual IRR: | 12.9% | |||
| Total Gain/Loss (%): | 9.1% | |||
Posts
3 comments:
IMO energy is the worst place to be
EGY FDG come to mind
OIL etf headed down down down
ISNS looks interesting here around 18
FDG isn't really so much energy. They make coal for steel plants
I feel your pain, somewhat, from last week; I lost $24k the week before; then lost another $6k on Monday but miraculously ended the week up +$5k; gotta love that volatility. I am thankful to have the Yahoo group and blogs like yours to help keep "a steady hand on the tiller".
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