Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Slip Sliding Away

Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip sliding away

Today puts my 2007 MFI portfolio firmly in the red. Pretty depressing. Can’t really point a finger at one stock today, it was a group effort.

I did manage to have four stocks in the green today. ORCT was the big surprise, up over 7%! That was actually good enough to place it in the top 10 of all the Nasdaq stocks. Hmm, no notes on why it was up. I have been hopeful that they would get a big contract in Japan, perhaps that is getting close? EZEN, FTO & PDS also managed to be green today. MTEX had good news, raising their dividend by 12% but got sucked down with the general market.

On days like this it is good to remember to be thankful. I for one am thankful that I didn’t have any direct exposure to these sub-prime lenders. NEW has dropped from $51 to $1.66 since last summer. LEND is off from $66 to $4. Reminds me of those internet bubble days. Some babies are being tossed out with the bath water though. I see WM is down 5% today, I gotta believe that at $39 and change they are a buy.

I noticed a couple of weeks ago where Thomas Ko of MSN Strategy Lab Fame had one of those stocks (shudder) in his portfolio. I hope not too many people followed his ill-advised lead. Let us look and see if he still has it… ouch, he isn’t doing very well. I don’t know that MSN is doing anyone a favor by posting his portfolio selections. He has four stocks and his “winner” is NBIX, down only 19%. Overall he is down 28%. NEW is down 67%, probably only because it seems to have stopped trading.

Well, tomorrow is another day. Perhaps we’re on our way to that 10% correction Jubak says we need. Wouldn’t that be great!?

Wow, I see where Pfizer is now on the Magic Pformula List. Under $25 a share! It is a little tempting in these uncertain times to go with them and their 4.6% dividend. But I promised no moves for the month. So I wait.

I did sneak a peek today at my March 29th 2006 MFI tracking portfolio. Remember, the first two beat the indices during their 1st year. In his book, JG says we can only expect to beat the markets 7 of 12 months, so we must keep our expectations realistic.

It looks likely that MFI will make it three for three. My portfolio last year of 68 stocks (not sure why so many) is up 8.9% (whoopee!) while the Russell 3000 is up 6.7%. PNCL (146%), TPX (88%), FTD (79%), DECK (75%) and PCU (70%) are amongst the big winners. Are you convinced yet?

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