Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Rambling Thoughts

Rambling Thoughts

ANF – I saw where JG’s sister owns ANF stock. Actually she only owns two stocks: ANF & ARO. But she has over 1m shares in each… heck I’d just like to have her dividend checks. Makes me feel better about renewing my ANF.

S&P Platinum Portfolio – I saw where a few MFI stocks make the S&P Platinum Portfolio: ANF, AMAT, KG, ODSY and WDC. Makes one wonder if a stock passes two such screens, does that give the stock a better outlook? Not that the Platinum Portfolio has been that stellar lately, they should change the name to Silver Portfolio I think.

AEOS – A few days ago I was mulling over ANF vs. AEOS, DBRN & DEBS. Glad (for this week at least) that I didn’t go for AEOS, which is down 4% post their earning report. Off-hand that seems a bit steep and if I hadn’t promised not to make any more transactions for a month I’d be tempted! DEBS announces tomorrow.

PNCL – my favorite airline is off 10 to 15% from their highs a month ago. With the addition of Calgon Air, they still seem like a very good buy. I’ll have a tough decision in May whether to keep some shares outside of MFI.

WON – Lost. Sorry, could not resist. WON has been on the lists as long as I can remember and I’ve always discarded them as unworthy. They came out with earnings today and are down 6% (not a happy day for MFI stocks with earnings reports). Commercial radio just isn’t where it is at today. I never listen any more. I have my MP3 player and XM Radio.

Bloodbath Scorecard - Here are my best and worst stocks since Feb 23rd

Best

PVD +4%

PGI +1%

AIG +1%

SHOO Flat

Worst

EGY -17%

VPHM -16%

OVTI -15%

TGIS -13%

ADY -13%

PNCL -12%


Lost SHOO – I noticed today that SHOO is no longer on the list. They had a good quarter and the stock is down more than 10% since it 1st came on the list. Hmmm, weird.

XJT Crashes – XJT has gone from about $9.30 to $6.12 in the past 2+ months. Sure am glad I picked PNCL rather than XJT back in May, 2006! I saw that an analyst initiated coverage today with a “Sell”. That is pretty cold. If I was a wild & crazy investor like I was pre-MFI, I’d probably take a “flier” (lol) on XJT as the bad news seems to be priced in to me.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

Hi, Marshall. I can yield a little insight on the "lost SHOO" comment.

Stocks can drop temporarily off the MFI list due to having recently reported earnings. This same thing recently happened to ViroPharma (VPHM). I've crunched the numbers from the latest quarterly report for VPHM, and the ROC/EY should land it on the list. It's not there because the S&P data is still considered "preliminary".

I have a subscription to a data service from Better Investing (NAIC) that is based on the S&P CompuStat data, and there is a data field labeled "Update Code" that indicates how firm the financials are for a given company. For the latest quarter, for both VPHM and SHOO, this field contains a value of "2" which, according to the data dictionary, indicates the data has been derived from a preliminary source (the earnings press release, for example). The data isn't updated to final/official status until the 10-Q/10-K report is filed. What's curious is that VPHM filed its 10-K back on 2/28 but S&P still hasn't updated its data. SHOO, on the other hand, just filed its 10-K yesterday.

Assuming the numbers were as good as you indicated for SHOO's latest report, I suspect it will show back up on the list within the next few days, apparently at the mercy of S&P and how prompt they are in updating their data!