My readers may not know it, but I do a fair amount of work to create all the tables and information I post on this blog. As I get closer to retirement (am 57 now), I am thinking more about what my investment portfolio should look like.
I think it should be about 20% MFI stocks, the tranches I currently run. Then maybe 40% in income/bonds like JQC. Then 20% in income producing stocks/CEFs. The rest can be some miscellaneous plays or cash.
I also want to cut back on trading and perhaps even blogging (gasp). I am considering that I can only trade 8 days a year (at least not eight days a week), corresponding with when tranches come up. Frankly, my regular trading at the fringe adds nothing. That way, I stop making emotional trades and reflex trades - these do sometimes work very well, but other times not so much.
So my shorter term plan is to prepare for this approach and a key to that is selling down my miscellaneous holdings and also some of my income stocks throughout rest of 2016. Not buying anything until my next "buy date", December 31st.
As part of this push, I have redesigned my Excel spreadsheet that I use to trcak everything. So today I will have some new tables and new buckets. The big one is I have moved away from "Dividends/Warrants" and there will be "Income" and Miscellaneous".
Overall
After all the smoke from the past two weeks, I am essentially even with the index for 2016. I am up 9.9% while the R3K is about 9.5%. My MFI Index is up 10.5%. I would be much further ahead if I stuck to basics. But I have taken too many speculative positions throughout 2016 that have drug me down back to the index. Need to get mack to investing roots and stay away from trading... it just sin't my strength.
MFI Select
Always exciting to start a new tranche. And the newest one is off to a nice start, up 3.9% this week. My MFI Select approach is down 2% for the year. That being said, it has really bounced since 11/1, up about 5%.
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $21.63 | $0.00 | 10.1% | 16.1% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $67.31 | $1.54 | 52.4% | 16.1% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.13 | $0.00 | -53.9% | 16.1% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $20.47 | $0.00 | 33.4% | 16.1% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $27.07 | $0.00 | 12.7% | 16.1% |
| Totals | 11.0% | 16.1% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $12.38 | $0.11 | 56.7% | 8.8% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $31.48 | $0.00 | -16.8% | 8.8% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $21.00 | $0.26 | 14.9% | 8.8% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $44.76 | $0.44 | 17.4% | 8.8% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $130.94 | $0.00 | 21.3% | 8.8% |
| Totals | 18.7% | 8.8% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $30.18 | $0.00 | -3.3% | 1.0% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $14.71 | $0.19 | -24.7% | 1.0% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $63.39 | $0.60 | 16.9% | 1.0% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $19.75 | $0.00 | 18.4% | 1.0% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $74.62 | $0.47 | -5.3% | 1.0% |
| Totals | 0.4% | 1.0% | |||
| 11/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MPAA | $26.55 | $26.08 | $0.00 | -1.8% | 0.8% |
| ATHM | $22.61 | $26.32 | $0.00 | 16.4% | 0.8% |
| AMGN | $145.14 | $145.23 | $0.00 | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| RHI | $43.23 | $44.76 | $0.00 | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| CA | $31.11 | $31.48 | $0.00 | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Totals | 3.9% | 0.8% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 0.4% | 3.9% | 11.0% | 18.7% | 7.1% |
| Previous Tranche | 2.8% | 8.0% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 6.5% |
| Tranche -2 | 11.2% | 69.4% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 26.8% |
| Tranche -3 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 41.7% |
| Tranche -4 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 85.2% | 212.2% | 83.9% | 39.6% | 105.2% |
| Current Balance | 46,295 | 78,048 | 45,967 | 34,892 | 205,203 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 1.0% | 0.8% | 16.1% | 8.8% | 6.7% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 68.8% | 71.8% | 54.6% | 33.0% | 56.6% |
| R3K Balance | 41,779 | 42,961 | 38,650 | 33,238 | 156,628 |
| Annualized IRR | 15.5% | 32.8% | 17.4% | 9.9% | 18.9% |
Here is a new table I created and will start sharing, weekly changes by stock:
| Stock | Current | Last Week | Dividend | Change |
| RHI | 44.76 | 43.35 | - | 3.3% |
| ATHM | 26.32 | 22.61 | - | 16.4% |
| CA | 31.48 | 31.11 | - | 1.2% |
| AMGN | 145.23 | 145.14 | - | 0.1% |
| MPAA | 26.08 | 26.55 | - | -1.8% |
| QCOM | 67.31 | 66.88 | - | 0.6% |
| MSGN | 19.75 | 20.30 | - | -2.7% |
| BRCD | 12.38 | 12.28 | - | 0.8% |
| VLO | 63.39 | 62.45 | - | 1.5% |
| DEPO | 20.47 | 20.84 | - | -1.8% |
| CSCO | 30.18 | 31.36 | - | -3.8% |
| TDC | 27.07 | 28.61 | - | -5.4% |
| VEC | 21.63 | 21.92 | - | -1.3% |
| GILD | 74.62 | 76.42 | - | -2.4% |
So you can see my ATHM was a timely pick. Here are month by month changes:
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| 9/1/2016 | 67.04% | 222,481 | 155,446 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 11/1/2016 | 41.86% | 195,726 | 153,863 |
| Current | 48.57% | 205,203 | 156,628 |
MFI Formula
You know, this approach has been strong in 2016 even though I complain. It is up over 13%. That is strong!
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $44.79 | $1.29 | 52.0% | 9.0% |
| GME | $28.34 | $23.46 | $1.11 | -13.3% | 9.0% |
| ilg | $15.89 | $18.24 | $0.36 | 17.1% | 9.0% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $18.31 | $2.75 | -5.2% | 9.0% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $37.77 | $1.00 | -5.3% | 9.0% |
| Totals | 9.1% | 9.0% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $40.00 | $0.44 | -21.1% | 8.7% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $15.87 | $0.25 | 33.2% | 8.7% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $13.75 | $0.38 | -7.3% | 8.7% |
| ilg | $13.85 | $18.24 | $0.24 | 33.4% | 8.7% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $40.20 | $0.60 | 32.5% | 8.7% |
| Totals | 14.1% | 8.7% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| ilg | $16.76 | $18.24 | $0.12 | 9.5% | 4.5% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $37.77 | $0.20 | -13.7% | 4.5% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $85.80 | $0.39 | 62.0% | 4.5% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $23.15 | $0.22 | -1.1% | 4.5% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $14.67 | $0.38 | -15.0% | 4.5% |
| Totals | 8.4% | 4.5% | |||
| 10/3/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CPLA | $58.15 | $85.80 | $0.00 | 47.5% | 1.7% |
| LDOS | $43.01 | $48.36 | $0.00 | 12.4% | 1.7% |
| GME | $27.70 | $23.46 | $0.00 | -15.3% | 1.7% |
| PBI | $18.15 | $14.67 | $0.19 | -18.1% | 1.7% |
| CSCO | $31.72 | $30.18 | $0.26 | -4.0% | 1.7% |
| Totals | 4.5% | 1.7% | |||
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 4.5% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% |
| Previous Tranche | 5.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | 1.0% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.5% | - | - | - | 0.1% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 10.8% | 21.1% | 13.9% | -5.2% | 10.1% |
| Current Balance | 276,698 | 302,611 | 284,851 | 236,852 | 1,101,013 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 1.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 14.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 8.8% |
| R3K Balance | 286,879 | 271,722 | 268,983 | 260,220 | 1,087,804 |
| Annualized IRR | 4.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | -3.7% | 5.6% |
You can see from table just above that the four open tranches are up a composite 8.9% versus 6.0% for the R3K open groups.
By Stock for the week:
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| ilg | 17.63 | 18.24 | - | 3.5% |
| CPLA | 83.05 | 85.80 | - | 3.3% |
| GME | 22.32 | 23.46 | - | 5.1% |
| VIAB | 38.42 | 37.77 | - | -1.7% |
| BBY | 38.36 | 44.79 | - | 16.8% |
| PBI | 15.18 | 14.67 | - | -3.4% |
| HPQ | 15.82 | 15.87 | - | 0.3% |
| TSRA | 39.45 | 40.20 | - | 1.9% |
| LDOS | 46.45 | 48.36 | - | 4.1% |
| CSCO | 31.36 | 30.18 | - | -3.8% |
| PPC | 18.78 | 18.31 | - | -2.5% |
| TIME | 13.10 | 13.75 | - | 5.0% |
| HRB | 22.83 | 23.15 | - | 1.4% |
| CALM | 40.95 | 40.00 | - | -2.3% |
Best Buy had great earnings and you can see it reflected here.
Then month by month... I am starting to pull ahead!
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| 9/1/2016 | -0.34% | 106,704 | 107,048 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 11/1/2016 | 0.42% | 105,421 | 105,003 |
| Current | 1.32% | 110,101 | 108,780 |
It is a marathon, not a sprint.
Income Holdings
As this a new split, I estimate this hgroup is up 15% this year, really helped by REXI earlier in the year that popped over 40%. As I mentioned, this will be my area of focus (meaning new money and sales of miscelleous holdings).
| Dividend Stocks | Start | Current | Dividends | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | 7/1/16 Price | Since July 1st 2016 |
| CSQ | 9.09 | 10.01 | 2.16 | 33.9% | 33.2% | 9.99 | 4.4% |
| AOD | 7.64 | 7.26 | 1.65 | 16.7% | 15.7% | 7.33 | 2.9% |
| SBRA | 22.46 | 21.82 | 0.42 | -1.0% | -8.8% | 22.46 | -2.8% |
| SJT | 8.75 | 6.19 | 0.33 | -25.5% | -31.3% | 7.26 | -12.8% |
| JQC | 7.83 | 8.37 | 0.60 | 14.5% | 13.2% | 8.10 | 6.5% |
| TGONF | 10.24 | 11.15 | 1.85 | 27.0% | 26.7% | 10.05 | 12.6% |
| PSXP | 46.95 | 43.35 | 0.53 | -6.5% | -5.6% | 46.95 | -7.7% |
| PSX | 80.00 | 83.64 | 2.25 | 7.4% | 5.5% | 80.00 | 4.6% |
| DSL | 18.43 | 17.91 | 0.88 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 18.59 | 0.4% |
| GLDI | 10.67 | 9.45 | 0.68 | -5.1% | -4.2% | 10.87 | -7.7% |
| EPI | 19.90 | 19.72 | - | -0.9% | 0.0% | 19.90 | -0.9% |
| O | 24.07 | 55.15 | 19.16 | 208.8% | 207.3% | 69.64 | -19.4% |
| DHF | 3.11 | 3.21 | - | 3.2% | 0.0% | 3.11 | 3.2% |
| OIBAX | 5.07 | 5.60 | 2.29 | 55.6% | 57.6% | 5.84 | -2.6% |
| Totals | 10.7% | 8.8% | -0.4% |
I am going to think more about this table, it can be better. But by looking at pct gain and pct gain last week, you can see what did well. SBRA moved up a lot. You can also see that since July 1st, this approach has actually been down a bit. I am going to sell SJT by year end. I have read some articles that suggest it is over valued based on their total natural gas reserves. I may replace with an energy CEF.
Miscellaneous
I have been selling here. I sold my WLDN (too early but a two bagger) and MGIC. My BAC Warrants have been unbelievable, now my single largest holding. They were up 20% this week and 69% since start of November. But EMG has been a downward drag, that was a major mistake. SPCB is my other major holding here, I will also look for opportunities to liquidate.
I think that is a wrap. Have a great weekend.
Posts
2 comments:
I am NOT a financial advisor, and I am a few years behind you in age. But why put 40% of your funds in income/bonds at this point? If you have a pension (if you're lucky enough to have worked for a company that offered one) and social security these can kind of be thought of as similar to bonds. According to the Social Security Administration, the average 57 year old male should live to about 83 years old. That's still a long time away.
For me trading is 'fun', so I have a small amount of money set aside to make more speculative trades. Mostly they are just short term arbitrage situations and 'insignificant' in the greater scheme of things in my overall portfolio. If you spend a lot of time reading financial news then why not profit from it?
Hopefully, you will at least continue to blog periodically. I definitely appreciate the time and effort you put into posting and enjoy reading your comments!
sincerest regards,
j
jb - income/bonds will is not all bonds. It will include closed end funds like AOD and CSQ that are primarily comprised of stocks and stocks such as PSX that have a 3% yield. And the 40% goal is not tomorrow, just looking to get there eventually. I do have a pension (from a former job as does my wife) and obviously SSN. I do find trading "fun", but I suspect it does not add much value.
Thanks for your thoughts.
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