Sunday, November 13, 2016

Weekend Update - Happy Veteran's Day

Weekend Update

After a realy bad stretch since Labor Day, my portfolios/tranches showed some life. Overall, I was up 4.7%.  It was really all about my BAC warrants. They were up 41%!  That is my largest position. Whoa, that really helps. CPLA was up over 10%, they have really become a big position for me. ILG, MPAA and UTHR were all up 10% as well.  Sweet.

I did sell some positions this week... some of my 11/15 MFI tranche (recall, you sell losers before a year is up) and then WLDN and a few miscellaneous holdings.  I am a bit unconvinced that the Trump rally will hold.  We'll see.

MFI Select

Recall a week ago I was commenting I was down 16% since 9/1. Well I was up 9% just this week!

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
8/1/2016 52.72%        207,223            154,501
9/1/2016 67.04%        222,481            155,446
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
11/1/2016 41.86%        195,726            153,863
Current 48.71%        204,396            155,681


11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $23.40 $0.00 -31.2% 7.7%
 SAVE  $34.48 $51.90 $0.00 50.5% 7.7%
 PPC  $18.98 $18.78 $2.75 13.4% 7.7%
 VEC  $23.60 $21.92 $0.00 -7.1% 7.7%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.05 $0.00 26.6% 7.7%
 Totals  10.4% 7.7%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $21.92 $0.00 11.6% 14.6%
 QCOM  $45.18 $66.88 $1.54 51.4% 14.6%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.02 $0.00 -58.4% 14.6%
 DEPO  $15.34 $20.84 $0.00 35.9% 14.6%
 TDC  $24.02 $28.61 $0.00 19.1% 14.6%
 Totals  11.9% 14.6%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $12.28 $0.11 55.5% 7.5%
 CBI  $37.82 $30.57 $0.00 -19.2% 7.5%
 HSII  $18.51 $21.70 $0.26 18.6% 7.5%
 RHI  $38.51 $43.35 $0.44 13.7% 7.5%
 UTHR  $107.99 $127.00 $0.00 17.6% 7.5%
 Totals  17.2% 7.5%
8/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $31.20 $31.36 $0.00 0.5% -0.2%
 GNC  $19.79 $14.41 $0.19 -26.2% -0.2%
 VLO  $54.73 $62.45 $0.00 14.1% -0.2%
 MSGN  $16.68 $20.30 $0.00 21.7% -0.2%
 GILD  $79.33 $76.42 $0.47 -3.1% -0.2%
 Totals  1.4% -0.2%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  1.4% 10.4% 11.9% 17.2% 9.8%
 Previous Tranche  2.8% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 10.5%
 Tranche -2  11.2% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 13.0%
 Tranche -3  41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 49.1%
 Tranche -4  14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5%
 MFI Overall Gain  87.0% 207.2% 85.5% 37.9% 104.4%
 Current Balance         46,758          76,799       46,369        34,470      204,396
 R3K Current Tranche  -0.2% 7.7% 14.6% 7.5% 7.4%
 R3K Overall Gain  66.7% 69.9% 52.7% 33.0% 55.7%
 R3K Balance         41,779          42,484       38,181        33,238      155,681
 Annualized IRR  15.9% 32.4% 17.7% 9.5% 18.9%

What a finish by 11/15 tranche. It was -1.4% to 3.5% a week ago.  Now 10.4% to 7.7%. Same story for overall open MFI vs open RK3. 9.8% to 7.4%. Life is good again.

MFI Formula

Good week here as well, up almost 6%. And we have pulled back into a virtual tie with R3K.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
8/1/2016 2.56%        109,419            106,857
9/1/2016 -0.34%        106,704            107,048
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
11/1/2016 0.42%        105,421            105,003
Current 0.02%        107,466            107,449

Looking at my summary table, you can see I am winning by over two points (6.5% to 4.2%) on the open tranches:

 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  2.9% 4.0% 12.1% 7.0% 6.5%
 Previous Tranche  5.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% 0.8%
 Tranche -2  0.5%                 -                 -                  -   0.1%
 MFI Overall Gain  9.1% 15.4% 11.8% -6.4% 7.5%
 Current Balance      272,573        288,532     279,704      233,853      1,074,661
 R3K Current Tranche  0.4% 7.7% 7.4% 3.2% 4.7%
 R3K Overall Gain  13.4% 7.4% 6.2% 2.9% 7.5%
 R3K Balance      283,347        268,419     265,700      257,028      1,074,493
 Annualized IRR  4.2% 8.0% 7.1% -4.7% 4.2%


 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $38.36 $1.29 30.8% 7.7%
 GME  $28.34 $22.32 $1.11 -17.3% 7.7%
 ilg  $15.89 $17.63 $0.36 13.2% 7.7%
 PPC  $22.22 $18.78 $2.75 -3.1% 7.7%
 VIAB  $40.93 $38.42 $1.00 -3.7% 7.7%
 Totals  4.0% 7.7%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $40.95 $0.44 -19.3% 7.4%
 HPQ  $12.10 $15.82 $0.25 32.8% 7.4%
 TIME  $15.24 $13.10 $0.38 -11.6% 7.4%
 ilg  $13.85 $17.63 $0.24 29.0% 7.4%
 TSRA  $30.79 $39.45 $0.40 29.4% 7.4%
 Totals  12.1% 7.4%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 ilg  $16.76 $17.63 $0.12 5.9% 3.2%
 VIAB  $44.00 $38.42 $0.20 -12.2% 3.2%
 CPLA  $53.22 $83.05 $0.39 56.8% 3.2%
 HRB  $23.62 $22.83 $0.22 -2.4% 3.2%
 PBI  $17.69 $15.18 $0.19 -13.1% 3.2%
 Totals  7.0% 3.2%
10/3/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CPLA  $58.15 $83.05 $0.00 42.8% 0.4%
 LDOS  $43.01 $46.45 $0.00 8.0% 0.4%
 GME  $27.70 $22.32 $0.00 -19.4% 0.4%
 PBI  $18.15 $15.18 $0.00 -16.4% 0.4%
 CSCO  $31.72 $31.36 $0.26 -0.3% 0.4%
 Totals  2.9% 0.4%

Dividends/Warrants

Obviously BAC Warrants were lights out. But typical income stocks did struggle this week (like DSL).


 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $6.71 $0.00 36.9% -3.1% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.24 $1.60 15.7% 13.6% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.83 $8.27 $0.60 13.2% 11.8% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.08 $9.92 $2.18 33.2% 27.6% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.43 $17.55 $0.88 0.0% 3.1% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $11.12 $1.85 26.7% 25.6% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.90 $0.00 73.8% 73.8% 75.7%
 O  $23.95 $54.39 $19.23 207.3% 219.8% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.07 $5.70 $2.29 57.6% 60.7% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $5.69 $0.33 -31.3% -26.5% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.67 $9.60 $0.62 -4.2% -0.3% 0.0%
 Totals  20.4% 11.8% 9.0%

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