Saturday, November 05, 2016

Weekend Update 11/5/16

Weekend Update

Wow, I have been on a bad run.  I have gone from beating the benchmarks by a solid amount (3 or 4 percentage points) to trailing by 40 basis points.  I am very, very angry as you can see.

Actually, I am frustrated.  MFI continues to underperform. Looking at my MFI Index, it is up 23 basis points for the year while the R3K is about +3.7%.  Based on that, I should be thankful.  My MFI Formula approach is up 3.4%, but my MFI Select is now down 10% this year.  Ouch.

It is very tempting to quit.  I have been thinking about it lately.  I have had a barrage of stocks dropping 10% in a day (LCI, GME, PBI, PPC, GNC, VEC.... etc, etc, etc).  At some point, it isn't fun anymore.

I am 57 years old, maybe time to start moving to even more income securities, or perhaps cash.  I made a list of closed end funds that are more bond/income based: DSUDHFNHSGHY, and ISD.  Those along with my CSQ, JQC and DSL would be nice group of holdings in my view.

MFI Select

The November tranche just has a week or so to go.  I am admittedly up in the air on whether to renew it.  I was reading a write up of the history of the markets and it made me nervous.  Things can get bad for an extended stretch.

11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $18.05 $0.00 -46.9% 3.4%
 SAVE  $34.48 $47.02 $0.00 36.4% 3.4%
 PPC  $18.98 $19.31 $2.75 16.2% 3.4%
 VEC  $23.60 $16.45 $0.00 -30.3% 3.4%
 VNCE  $3.99 $4.60 $0.00 15.3% 3.4%
 Totals  -1.9% 3.4%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $16.45 $0.00 -16.2% 10.0%
 QCOM  $45.18 $66.73 $1.54 51.1% 10.0%
 PERI  $2.45 $0.96 $0.00 -60.8% 10.0%
 DEPO  $15.34 $22.66 $0.00 47.7% 10.0%
 TDC  $24.02 $26.42 $0.00 10.0% 10.0%
 Totals  6.4% 10.0%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $12.28 $0.11 55.5% 3.1%
 CBI  $37.82 $29.02 $0.00 -23.3% 3.1%
 HSII  $18.51 $18.10 $0.26 -0.8% 3.1%
 RHI  $38.51 $37.43 $0.44 -1.7% 3.1%
 UTHR  $107.99 $114.14 $0.00 5.7% 3.1%
 Totals  7.1% 3.1%
8/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $31.20 $30.19 $0.00 -3.2% -4.3%
 GNC  $19.79 $13.24 $0.19 -32.1% -4.3%
 VLO  $54.73 $57.87 $0.00 5.7% -4.3%
 MSGN  $16.68 $18.75 $0.00 12.4% -4.3%
 GILD  $79.33 $72.43 $0.47 -8.1% -4.3%
 Totals  -5.1% -4.3%


Recall that my November tranche was WAY ahead a quarter ago. Very sad, very depressing.

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
8/1/2016 52.72%        207,223            154,501
9/1/2016 67.04%        222,481            155,446
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
11/1/2016 41.86%        195,726            153,863
Current 35.14%        187,553            152,416

Wow, I was complaining last week and look, I have dropped (assuming I started at $100k) from 195,726 to 187,553.  That means I have dropped 16% since 9/1. Certainly in correction territory.  Close to Bear market.

MFI Formula

Relative to the formula approach, doing a bit better here.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
8/1/2016 2.56%        109,419            106,857
9/1/2016 -0.34%        106,704            107,048
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
11/1/2016 0.42%        105,421            105,003
Current -2.04%        101,014            103,057

You'll note that I did briefly pull ahead on Tuesday, but GME and others caused me to be slapped back.

 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $38.19 $1.29 30.3% 3.3%
 GME  $28.34 $20.73 $1.11 -22.9% 3.3%
 ilg  $15.89 $16.00 $0.36 3.0% 3.3%
 PPC  $22.22 $19.31 $2.75 -0.7% 3.3%
 VIAB  $40.93 $36.56 $1.00 -8.2% 3.3%
 Totals  0.3% 3.3%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $36.50 $0.44 -28.0% 3.0%
 HPQ  $12.10 $14.71 $0.25 23.6% 3.0%
 TIME  $15.24 $12.55 $0.38 -15.2% 3.0%
 ilg  $13.85 $16.00 $0.24 17.2% 3.0%
 TSRA  $30.79 $37.35 $0.40 22.6% 3.0%
 Totals  4.1% 3.0%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 ilg  $16.76 $16.00 $0.12 -3.8% -1.0%
 VIAB  $44.00 $36.56 $0.20 -16.5% -1.0%
 CPLA  $53.22 $75.50 $0.39 42.6% -1.0%
 HRB  $23.62 $21.93 $0.22 -6.2% -1.0%
 PBI  $17.69 $14.24 $0.19 -18.4% -1.0%
 Totals  -0.5% -1.0%
10/3/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CPLA  $58.15 $75.50 $0.00 29.8% -3.7%
 LDOS  $43.01 $43.76 $0.00 1.7% -3.7%
 GME  $27.70 $20.73 $0.00 -25.2% -3.7%
 PBI  $18.15 $14.24 $0.00 -21.5% -3.7%
 CSCO  $31.72 $30.19 $0.26 -4.0% -3.7%
 Totals  -3.8% -3.7%

Look at the 10/1 portfolio, just a month old. I have two stocks down more than 20%. Frustrating.

Dividend/Warrants

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $4.75 $0.00 -3.1% 0.4% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.08 $1.60 13.6% 17.7% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.83 $8.21 $0.55 11.8% 15.0% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.08 $9.49 $2.10 27.6% 33.4% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.43 $18.26 $0.73 3.1% 5.4% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $11.00 $1.85 25.6% 25.9% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.90 $0.00 73.8% 73.8% 75.7%
 O  $23.95 $57.38 $19.23 219.8% 223.8% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.07 $5.86 $2.29 60.7% 60.4% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $6.11 $0.33 -26.5% -24.3% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.67 $10.02 $0.62 -0.3% -0.9% 0.0%
 Totals  11.8% 14.8% 9.0%

Wow, it was just a bad week all around.  From 14.8% to 11.8% in a week.  I guess I should be thankful just to be making money.

Other Thoughts

As I mentioned, MFI in general is struggling.  I know regulars like GME and PBI got crushed this week.  But FIT and GPRO also crashed and burned.  Here is a listing of my 12 open MFI tracking portfolios.  It ain't pretty.

11/27/2015 -1.6% 1.1% 0
12/31/2015 2.3% 3.7% 0
1/29/2016 9.5% 10.0% 0
2/26/2016 7.6% 9.2% 0
3/24/2016 8.4% 4.3% 1
4/22/2016 -1.8% 0.9% 0
5/27/2016 3.3% 0.4% 1
6/30/2016 1.0% 0.1% 1
7/29/2016 -4.6% -3.6% 0
8/26/2016 -5.6% -3.7% 0
9/30/2016 -5.2% -4.0% 0
10/28/2016 -2.6% -1.8% 0
Average 12 0.9% 1.4%
So first column is MFI and second is R3K.  Not as bad as I thought, but only 3 of 12 are leading.  The one started just a week ago is already down 2.6%.  End of August down 5.6%.  Recall my select is down 15% since end of august.  My formula approach is down 5.3%. Yuck.

Have a good weekend.


3 comments:

jb said...

I'm in the same boat as you in the past few months. In absolute terms my MFI stocks were down 2.7% in the month of October alone. I don't look at my portfolio nearly as closely as you and maybe that's why I'm not too frustrated.

John Carney said...

Marsh,

Ray Dalio made a presentation to the NY Fed. that was a real bombshell! With 152 Trillion of world debt somebody is going to get stuffed. Short term debt is mostly OK. Out about 4 years Japan rolls over followed by Europe then the U.S. and China is fourth.
He told the Fed. you only see this every 70 years or so and the Fed. is not prepared to deal with this!
Since May 2010 I am totaly invested in the Permanent Portfolio. Gave the book by craig rowland and j.m. lawson to my whole family that is called the permanent portfolio, Harry Browne's long-term investment strategy.. It a program that is invested for the four business cycles and preserve money in any cycle. 50% of the 152 Billion that Dalio manages is invested that way. Of course he has a fancy name as he can't earn fees with a simple approach!

John Carney said...

Dalio presentation:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-06/what-bridgewaters-ray-dalio-told-new-york-fed