Wow, I have been on a bad run. I have gone from beating the benchmarks by a solid amount (3 or 4 percentage points) to trailing by 40 basis points. I am very, very angry as you can see.
Actually, I am frustrated. MFI continues to underperform. Looking at my MFI Index, it is up 23 basis points for the year while the R3K is about +3.7%. Based on that, I should be thankful. My MFI Formula approach is up 3.4%, but my MFI Select is now down 10% this year. Ouch.
It is very tempting to quit. I have been thinking about it lately. I have had a barrage of stocks dropping 10% in a day (LCI, GME, PBI, PPC, GNC, VEC.... etc, etc, etc). At some point, it isn't fun anymore.
I am 57 years old, maybe time to start moving to even more income securities, or perhaps cash. I made a list of closed end funds that are more bond/income based: DSU, DHF, NHS, GHY, and ISD. Those along with my CSQ, JQC and DSL would be nice group of holdings in my view.
MFI Select
The November tranche just has a week or so to go. I am admittedly up in the air on whether to renew it. I was reading a write up of the history of the markets and it made me nervous. Things can get bad for an extended stretch.
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $18.05 | $0.00 | -46.9% | 3.4% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $47.02 | $0.00 | 36.4% | 3.4% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $19.31 | $2.75 | 16.2% | 3.4% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $16.45 | $0.00 | -30.3% | 3.4% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $4.60 | $0.00 | 15.3% | 3.4% |
| Totals | -1.9% | 3.4% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $16.45 | $0.00 | -16.2% | 10.0% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $66.73 | $1.54 | 51.1% | 10.0% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $0.96 | $0.00 | -60.8% | 10.0% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $22.66 | $0.00 | 47.7% | 10.0% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $26.42 | $0.00 | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Totals | 6.4% | 10.0% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $12.28 | $0.11 | 55.5% | 3.1% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $29.02 | $0.00 | -23.3% | 3.1% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $18.10 | $0.26 | -0.8% | 3.1% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $37.43 | $0.44 | -1.7% | 3.1% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $114.14 | $0.00 | 5.7% | 3.1% |
| Totals | 7.1% | 3.1% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $30.19 | $0.00 | -3.2% | -4.3% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $13.24 | $0.19 | -32.1% | -4.3% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $57.87 | $0.00 | 5.7% | -4.3% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $18.75 | $0.00 | 12.4% | -4.3% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $72.43 | $0.47 | -8.1% | -4.3% |
| Totals | -5.1% | -4.3% |
Recall that my November tranche was WAY ahead a quarter ago. Very sad, very depressing.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| 9/1/2016 | 67.04% | 222,481 | 155,446 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 11/1/2016 | 41.86% | 195,726 | 153,863 |
| Current | 35.14% | 187,553 | 152,416 |
Wow, I was complaining last week and look, I have dropped (assuming I started at $100k) from 195,726 to 187,553. That means I have dropped 16% since 9/1. Certainly in correction territory. Close to Bear market.
MFI Formula
Relative to the formula approach, doing a bit better here.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| 9/1/2016 | -0.34% | 106,704 | 107,048 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 11/1/2016 | 0.42% | 105,421 | 105,003 |
| Current | -2.04% | 101,014 | 103,057 |
You'll note that I did briefly pull ahead on Tuesday, but GME and others caused me to be slapped back.
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $38.19 | $1.29 | 30.3% | 3.3% |
| GME | $28.34 | $20.73 | $1.11 | -22.9% | 3.3% |
| ilg | $15.89 | $16.00 | $0.36 | 3.0% | 3.3% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $19.31 | $2.75 | -0.7% | 3.3% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $36.56 | $1.00 | -8.2% | 3.3% |
| Totals | 0.3% | 3.3% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $36.50 | $0.44 | -28.0% | 3.0% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $14.71 | $0.25 | 23.6% | 3.0% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $12.55 | $0.38 | -15.2% | 3.0% |
| ilg | $13.85 | $16.00 | $0.24 | 17.2% | 3.0% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $37.35 | $0.40 | 22.6% | 3.0% |
| Totals | 4.1% | 3.0% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| ilg | $16.76 | $16.00 | $0.12 | -3.8% | -1.0% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $36.56 | $0.20 | -16.5% | -1.0% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $75.50 | $0.39 | 42.6% | -1.0% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $21.93 | $0.22 | -6.2% | -1.0% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $14.24 | $0.19 | -18.4% | -1.0% |
| Totals | -0.5% | -1.0% | |||
| 10/3/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CPLA | $58.15 | $75.50 | $0.00 | 29.8% | -3.7% |
| LDOS | $43.01 | $43.76 | $0.00 | 1.7% | -3.7% |
| GME | $27.70 | $20.73 | $0.00 | -25.2% | -3.7% |
| PBI | $18.15 | $14.24 | $0.00 | -21.5% | -3.7% |
| CSCO | $31.72 | $30.19 | $0.26 | -4.0% | -3.7% |
| Totals | -3.8% | -3.7% |
Look at the 10/1 portfolio, just a month old. I have two stocks down more than 20%. Frustrating.
Dividend/Warrants
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $4.75 | $0.00 | -3.1% | 0.4% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.08 | $1.60 | 13.6% | 17.7% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.83 | $8.21 | $0.55 | 11.8% | 15.0% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.08 | $9.49 | $2.10 | 27.6% | 33.4% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.43 | $18.26 | $0.73 | 3.1% | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $11.00 | $1.85 | 25.6% | 25.9% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.90 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 73.8% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.95 | $57.38 | $19.23 | 219.8% | 223.8% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.07 | $5.86 | $2.29 | 60.7% | 60.4% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $6.11 | $0.33 | -26.5% | -24.3% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.67 | $10.02 | $0.62 | -0.3% | -0.9% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 11.8% | 14.8% | 9.0% |
Wow, it was just a bad week all around. From 14.8% to 11.8% in a week. I guess I should be thankful just to be making money.
Other Thoughts
As I mentioned, MFI in general is struggling. I know regulars like GME and PBI got crushed this week. But FIT and GPRO also crashed and burned. Here is a listing of my 12 open MFI tracking portfolios. It ain't pretty.
| 11/27/2015 | -1.6% | 1.1% | 0 |
| 12/31/2015 | 2.3% | 3.7% | 0 |
| 1/29/2016 | 9.5% | 10.0% | 0 |
| 2/26/2016 | 7.6% | 9.2% | 0 |
| 3/24/2016 | 8.4% | 4.3% | 1 |
| 4/22/2016 | -1.8% | 0.9% | 0 |
| 5/27/2016 | 3.3% | 0.4% | 1 |
| 6/30/2016 | 1.0% | 0.1% | 1 |
| 7/29/2016 | -4.6% | -3.6% | 0 |
| 8/26/2016 | -5.6% | -3.7% | 0 |
| 9/30/2016 | -5.2% | -4.0% | 0 |
| 10/28/2016 | -2.6% | -1.8% | 0 |
| Average 12 | 0.9% | 1.4% |
So first column is MFI and second is R3K. Not as bad as I thought, but only 3 of 12 are leading. The one started just a week ago is already down 2.6%. End of August down 5.6%. Recall my select is down 15% since end of august. My formula approach is down 5.3%. Yuck.
Have a good weekend.
Posts
3 comments:
I'm in the same boat as you in the past few months. In absolute terms my MFI stocks were down 2.7% in the month of October alone. I don't look at my portfolio nearly as closely as you and maybe that's why I'm not too frustrated.
Marsh,
Ray Dalio made a presentation to the NY Fed. that was a real bombshell! With 152 Trillion of world debt somebody is going to get stuffed. Short term debt is mostly OK. Out about 4 years Japan rolls over followed by Europe then the U.S. and China is fourth.
He told the Fed. you only see this every 70 years or so and the Fed. is not prepared to deal with this!
Since May 2010 I am totaly invested in the Permanent Portfolio. Gave the book by craig rowland and j.m. lawson to my whole family that is called the permanent portfolio, Harry Browne's long-term investment strategy.. It a program that is invested for the four business cycles and preserve money in any cycle. 50% of the 152 Billion that Dalio manages is invested that way. Of course he has a fancy name as he can't earn fees with a simple approach!
Dalio presentation:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-06/what-bridgewaters-ray-dalio-told-new-york-fed
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