Thinking About My Current List

Current List

Ok, let us take what I just wrote and think about the current list (50 stocks > 100m).

Ticker	Market Cap	Price	Dividend	Yield
ACHI	238	2.23	N/A	0.0%
AMAG	1,134	33.15	N/A	0.0%
AMCX	3,808	53.83	N/A	0.0%
AAPL	593,542	111.23	2.28	2.0%
AGTC	178	9.85	N/A	0.0%
AGX	975	64.85	-	0.0%
AVID	177	4.35	N/A	0.0%
AWRE	131	5.80	-	0.0%
BBSI	420	57.94	0.88	1.5%
HRB	5,188	23.68	0.88	3.7%
BPT	459	21.45	2.72	12.7%
CA	13,056	31.60	1.02	3.2%
CSCO	148,431	29.71	1.04	3.5%
DLX	3,364	69.23	1.20	1.7%
DHX	323	6.45	N/A	0.0%
ESRX	48,350	76.81	-	0.0%
FPRX	1,715	60.31	N/A	0.0%
GME	2,705	26.06	1.48	5.7%
GILD	99,547	75.30	1.88	2.5%
GHC	2,711	482.90	N/A	0.0%
HSII	390	21.00	0.52	2.5%
HPQ	25,353	14.87	0.53	3.6%
ICON	559	9.94	N/A	0.0%
IDCC	2,770	80.80	1.20	1.5%
IRMD	115	11.30	N/A	0.0%
MBUU	329	18.58	N/A	0.0%
MCFT	252	13.53	4.15	30.7%
MCK	31,927	141.27	1.12	0.8%
MDCA	314	5.95	-	0.0%
MPAA	483	25.90	N/A	0.0%
MSGN	1,471	19.60	N/A	0.0%
MYGN	1,178	17.22	N/A	0.0%
NHTC	293	25.93	0.32	1.2%
NSR	1,370	25.10	N/A	0.0%
PDLI	429	2.59	0.20	7.7%
PBI	2,766	14.90	0.75	5.0%
RPXC	528	10.62	N/A	0.0%
SSNI	757	14.63	N/A	0.0%
SWHC	1,320	23.51	N/A	0.0%
SPOK	376	18.30	0.50	2.7%
RGR	996	52.50	1.64	3.1%
SYNT	1,695	20.15	-	0.0%
TGNA	4,751	22.16	0.56	2.5%
TDC	3,547	27.35	N/A	0.0%
TRNC	473	12.98	-	0.0%
UIS	731	14.60	-	0.0%
UTHR	5,973	131.39	N/A	0.0%
USNA	1,532	62.90	N/A	0.0%
VEC	247	22.96	N/A	0.0%
VIAB	14,781	37.25	0.80	2.1%

Note I have included MCFT special dividend here.  Now let us think about subsets.  Fisrt dividend flag on (2.6% or greater).

Number	Ticker	Market Cap	Price	Dividend	Yield
1	HRB	5,188	23.68	0.88	3.7%
2	BPT	459	21.45	2.72	12.7%
3	CA	13,056	31.60	1.02	3.2%
4	CSCO	148,431	29.71	1.04	3.5%
5	GME	2,705	26.06	1.48	5.7%
6	HPQ	25,353	14.87	0.53	3.6%
7	MCFT	252	13.53	4.15	30.7%
8	PDLI	429	2.59	0.20	7.7%
9	PBI	2,766	14.90	0.75	5.0%
10	SPOK	376	18.30	0.50	2.7%
11	RGR	996	52.50	1.64	3.1%

So only 11 of 50 meet that hurdle.  For that reason, I have been paring it down to 2.4% since I started Formula approach.

Number	Ticker	Market Cap	Price	Dividend	Yield
1	HRB	5,188	23.68	0.88	3.7%
2	BPT	459	21.45	2.72	12.7%
3	CA	13,056	31.60	1.02	3.2%
4	CSCO	148,431	29.71	1.04	3.5%
5	GME	2,705	26.06	1.48	5.7%
6	GILD	99,547	75.30	1.88	2.5%
7	HSII	390	21.00	0.52	2.5%
8	HPQ	25,353	14.87	0.53	3.6%
9	MCFT	252	13.53	4.15	30.7%
10	PDLI	429	2.59	0.20	7.7%
11	PBI	2,766	14.90	0.75	5.0%
12	SPOK	376	18.30	0.50	2.7%
13	RGR	996	52.50	1.64	3.1%
14	TGNA	4,751	22.16	0.56	2.5%

Or suppose you just went "Big", irregardless of dividend yield.

Number	Ticker	Market Cap	Price	Dividend	Yield
1	AMCX	3,808	53.83	N/A	0.0%
2	AAPL	593,542	111.23	2.28	2.0%
3	HRB	5,188	23.68	0.88	3.7%
4	CA	13,056	31.60	1.02	3.2%
5	CSCO	148,431	29.71	1.04	3.5%
6	DLX	3,364	69.23	1.20	1.7%
7	ESRX	48,350	76.81	-	0.0%
8	FPRX	1,715	60.31	N/A	0.0%
9	GME	2,705	26.06	1.48	5.7%
10	GILD	99,547	75.30	1.88	2.5%
11	GHC	2,711	482.90	N/A	0.0%
12	HPQ	25,353	14.87	0.53	3.6%
13	IDCC	2,770	80.80	1.20	1.5%
14	MCK	31,927	141.27	1.12	0.8%
15	PBI	2,766	14.90	0.75	5.0%
16	SYNT	1,695	20.15	-	0.0%
17	TGNA	4,751	22.16	0.56	2.5%
18	TDC	3,547	27.35	N/A	0.0%
19	UTHR	5,973	131.39	N/A	0.0%
20	USNA	1,532	62.90	N/A	0.0%
21	VIAB	14,781	37.25	0.80	2.1%

Or finally my actual formula screen, >600m and >2.4%.

Number	Ticker	Market Cap	Price	Dividend	Yield
1	HRB	5,188	23.68	0.88	3.7%
2	CA	13,056	31.60	1.02	3.2%
3	CSCO	148,431	29.71	1.04	3.5%
4	GME	2,705	26.06	1.48	5.7%
5	GILD	99,547	75.30	1.88	2.5%
6	HPQ	25,353	14.87	0.53	3.6%
7	PBI	2,766	14.90	0.75	5.0%
8	RGR	996	52.50	1.64	3.1%
9	TGNA	4,751	22.16	0.56	2.5%

A short list this time.  Excel has some great tools for doing all this work.  You can change filters on the fly for a database and then it will automatically create a subset that meets the criteria.  I have a theory that fewer stocks on this list means the market is getting over-valued. That kind of makes sense as higher prices imply lowered dividend yields, all else being equal.

i do not see any stocks here I would discard due to unlikeliness of replicating income. GILD does have greater drug competition. RGR may see sales decline as threat of firearms ban is lower with Trump... but that is not like PDLI.

Then I would run my random number generator.

Random #	Stock
7	PBI
5	GILD
9	TGNA
3	CSCO
4	GME

Of course I will wait until the end of the year.  Here is my tranche coming of age:

12/31/15 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BBY	$30.31	$46.96	$1.29	59.2%	10.3%
GME	$28.34	$26.06	$1.11	-4.1%	10.3%
ilg	$15.89	$18.39	$0.36	18.0%	10.3%
PPC	$22.22	$17.83	$2.75	-7.4%	10.3%
VIAB	$40.93	$37.25	$1.00	-6.5%	10.3%
Totals				11.8%	10.3%

PPC has really crashed and burned. Would everyone please go out and buy one of their turkeys?