Wow, what a beating I took on Friday. Really for the week, with Friday being the exclamation point. SOmetimes I am right and wish I was wrong. In
What The #$%^&*@!? I said (regarding VNCE), "So has it just become a momentum stock, that will crash and burn just as fast as it went parabolic? Or is something going on (like a LBO)?
Well, given the size of VNCE - I suspect this is a momentum play. Which will be sad if true as I have no intent to sell (darned rules!)."
Yesterday it crashed and burned. I actually was okay with the earnings. I didn't listen to the call (was traveling). They definitely were guiding for a sub par winter. But with all the managerial changes and consultants, it seems to me they're selling what they have to get a fresh start.
But it was much more than VNCE. That was only about 15% of my total drop. It was across the board. Gad, I can't believe this is right - two weeks ago I was up 6.6%. At end of last week, I was up 9.9%. Now I am up 1.8%. Yes, the picture of Rocky is a good choice.
MFI Select
If you go back to last week's post, I was at (adjusted to assume I started at $100,000) $232,476 which was 82.8% ahead. That crashed to $216,766 and 72.8%.
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $21.43 | $0.00 | -23.5% | 1.6% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $47.46 | $1.86 | -21.4% | 1.6% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $41.59 | $1.13 | -33.2% | 1.6% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $11.37 | $0.00 | -48.4% | 1.6% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $45.12 | $0.05 | 263.1% | 1.6% |
| Totals | 27.3% | 1.6% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $38.48 | $0.14 | -23.3% | -3.4% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.66 | $0.00 | -11.3% | -3.4% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $32.06 | $0.60 | -16.1% | -3.4% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $40.39 | $0.00 | -35.1% | -3.4% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $18.48 | $0.00 | -21.4% | -3.4% |
| Totals | -21.4% | -3.4% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $16.69 | $0.00 | -10.6% | -4.0% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $9.91 | $0.00 | 6.1% | -4.0% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $26.16 | $0.21 | -8.9% | -4.0% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $25.45 | $0.28 | 1.7% | -4.0% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $27.65 | $0.13 | 37.9% | -4.0% |
| Totals | 5.3% | -4.0% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $39.09 | - | 14.9% | -1.8% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $41.59 | - | 20.6% | -1.8% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $21.49 | - | 13.2% | -1.8% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $21.43 | - | -9.2% | -1.8% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $4.59 | - | 15.0% | -1.8% |
| Totals | 10.9% | -1.8% |
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| Current | 72.84% | 216,766 | 143,925 |
Wow, I am not sure I want to say anything. It has me a bit down.
MFI Formula
What can I say? Continues to underwhelm. But now even the benchmark is below par. Definitely Bumpier roads. I think next week will be very rough. This in my view is a Taper Tantrum. Plus the Saudis + Opec keeping oil production escalated.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| Current | -3.62% | 95,192 | 98,809 |
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $27.15 | $1.00 | -8.7% | -2.3% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $26.16 | $0.82 | -4.9% | -2.3% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $59.29 | $1.10 | 73.5% | -2.3% |
| GME | $34.21 | $30.00 | $1.44 | -8.1% | -2.3% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $18.10 | $0.60 | -5.9% | -2.3% |
| Totals | 9.2% | -2.3% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $32.25 | $0.60 | 2.7% | -3.5% |
| GME | $37.69 | $30.00 | $1.08 | -17.5% | -3.5% |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.65 | $0.00 | 11.3% | -3.5% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $2.53 | $0.08 | -23.9% | -3.5% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $21.49 | $0.00 | -5.1% | -3.5% |
| Totals | -6.5% | -3.5% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $31.83 | $0.46 | -30.5% | -3.5% |
| CA | $29.34 | $27.15 | $0.50 | -5.8% | -3.5% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $54.06 | $0.67 | 23.2% | -3.5% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $47.46 | $0.96 | -23.1% | -3.5% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $41.59 | $0.40 | -35.2% | -3.5% |
| Totals | -14.3% | -3.5% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $31.83 | $0.23 | -13.0% | 4.6% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $18.10 | $0.15 | -16.9% | 4.6% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $47.46 | $0.48 | -10.3% | 4.6% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $26.16 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 4.6% |
| CA | $27.30 | $27.15 | $0.25 | 0.4% | 4.6% |
| Totals | -8.0% | 4.6% |
Looking at these tables, it is clear that people are buying guns (RGR), not belts (BKE) and playing on computers (MSFT) and not watching TV (VIAB).
MFI Micro
I have always maintained that this is a volatile portfolio, but it is surpassing (in a bad way) my expectations. I should have sold the lot two weeks ago when it was at 8%.
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $4.59 | $0.00 | -46.0% | 0.9% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $3.00 | $0.00 | 50.8% | 0.9% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $8.97 | $0.18 | -21.2% | 0.9% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $6.41 | $0.00 | -11.7% | 0.9% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.88 | $0.00 | 17.6% | 0.9% |
| Totals | -2.1% | 0.9% |
Dividends, Warrants and Other Stuff
I did not buy any stocks this week. I did sell the DEPO I bought the prior week at $19.47. So that was a good trade (10.7%). Then I sold FSC the prior week I bought JQC and REXI and then pocketed about 25% of the proceeds. The pocketing was a good move. But REXI is down an astonishing 27%! Even the dull JQC is off 6% (showing this is a Taper Tantrum). FSC is down as well, but only a couple %.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week |
| BAC-WTA | $6.04 | $5.97 | $0.00 | -1.1% | 4.9% |
| AOD | $8.08 | $7.51 | $1.59 | 12.6% | 17.3% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $7.37 | $0.00 | -5.8% | 0.0% |
| CSQ | $9.32 | $9.50 | $1.98 | 23.2% | 28.2% |
| NTC | $12.05 | $12.44 | $1.19 | 13.1% | 13.8% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.82 | $1.19 | 7.5% | 10.3% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.95 | $0.00 | 74.0% | 85.7% |
| O | $22.62 | $48.65 | $17.70 | 193.4% | 199.4% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.57 | $2.14 | 52.9% | 53.5% |
| SJT | $8.82 | $4.38 | $0.11 | -49.0% | -39.5% |
| Totals | 5.7% | 11.2% |
I am blown away with the drops here. Part of it is the disaster of SJT (Starting to go in hall of shame as worse picks of all time), but look at the weekly drops of BAC, AOD, CSQ and JQC. It was a bad, bad, bad week.
Call It A Wrap
Well, the good news I have plenty of cash and a job. I don't use margin. So don't need any fire sales at this time. I do think next week the bias is more down - but I am notoriously bad at forecasting this things.
I now mark the MFI Index at down 9.6% for the year and the R3K is down 1.2%. It is a tough year. I suspect that there are a lot of stocks that are starting to look pretty cheap. But I intend to wait until my next scheduled buy at year end.
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