Well, the markets were certainly searching for direction in this week marking the first Fed hike in about a decade. My portfolio was no exception - it felt like it was down, down, down. Looking at the numbers, somehow I am up 1.7% on the year. That feel like a huge victory. I show the R3K down 1.5%. The MFI Index is off a sobering 9.6%. And if I am being honest, my upside is all one stock: NHTC. I am down about 8% without them.
That being said, a lot of stocks are looking very tempting. BX and KKR both offer very nice dividends and in my view may do quite well in this environment. Leon Cooperman this week touted NAVI, It is just under $12 with a five percent yield. So while I hear a lot of doom and gloom, I feel a lot of stocks have already taken hits. I'd be curious to see how the indices look x Netflix, Facebook, Google and Amazon. I think the fact that the markets are flatish for the year is camouflaged by just a few very outsized winners and many mediocre losers (frankly, not unlike my portfolio).
MFI Select
This continues to be my gold standard. Up an astonishing 25% on the year. Except for the May picks, looking very strong.
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $21.02 | $0.00 | -24.9% | 1.3% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $47.43 | $1.86 | -21.4% | 1.3% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $39.06 | $1.53 | -36.5% | 1.3% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $10.98 | $0.00 | -50.2% | 1.3% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $44.67 | $0.05 | 259.5% | 1.3% |
| Totals | 25.3% | 1.3% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $38.43 | $0.14 | -23.4% | -3.7% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.69 | $0.00 | -10.5% | -3.7% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $31.48 | $0.60 | -17.6% | -3.7% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $39.71 | $0.00 | -36.2% | -3.7% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $19.00 | $0.00 | -19.1% | -3.7% |
| Totals | -21.4% | -3.7% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $16.88 | $0.00 | -9.6% | -4.3% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $9.96 | $0.00 | 6.6% | -4.3% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $26.27 | $0.21 | -8.5% | -4.3% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $25.36 | $0.28 | 1.3% | -4.3% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $27.27 | $0.13 | 36.0% | -4.3% |
| Totals | 5.2% | -4.3% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $41.14 | - | 21.0% | -2.1% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $40.40 | - | 17.2% | -2.1% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $21.32 | - | 12.3% | -2.1% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $21.02 | - | -10.9% | -2.1% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.01 | - | 25.6% | -2.1% |
| Totals | 13.0% | -2.1% |
You can tell how the markets have struggled since May. The R3K is -3.7%, -4.3% and -2.1% as the benchmarks for the back three portfolios.
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 5.2% | 13.0% | 25.3% | -21.4% | 6.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 44.6% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 41.7% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 88.7% | 214.4% | 142.2% | 23.7% | 117.2% |
| Current Balance | 47,163 | 78,590 | 60,555 | 30,917 | 217,226 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -4.3% | -2.1% | 1.3% | -3.7% | -2.2% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 51.8% | 54.3% | 38.5% | 29.1% | 43.4% |
| R3K Balance | 37,952 | 38,582 | 34,624 | 32,287 | 143,445 |
| Annualized IRR | 20.9% | 44.8% | 36.0% | 8.4% | 29.9% |
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| Current | 73.78% | 217,226 | 143,445 |
MFI Formula
Now down 3.7% for the year and about 5% overall. Not taking any victory laps right now. I still believe, but it has been a struggle thus far.
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $28.22 | $1.00 | -5.2% | -2.6% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $26.27 | $0.82 | -4.5% | -2.6% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $59.13 | $1.10 | 73.0% | -2.6% |
| GME | $34.21 | $28.76 | $1.44 | -11.7% | -2.6% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $17.47 | $0.60 | -9.1% | -2.6% |
| Totals | 8.5% | -2.6% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $33.21 | $0.60 | 5.7% | -3.8% |
| GME | $37.69 | $28.76 | $1.08 | -20.8% | -3.8% |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.65 | $0.00 | 11.3% | -3.8% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $2.52 | $0.08 | -24.2% | -3.8% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $21.32 | $0.00 | -5.9% | -3.8% |
| Totals | -6.8% | -3.8% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $30.91 | $0.46 | -32.5% | -3.8% |
| CA | $29.34 | $28.22 | $0.50 | -2.1% | -3.8% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $54.13 | $0.67 | 23.4% | -3.8% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $47.43 | $0.96 | -23.1% | -3.8% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $39.06 | $0.80 | -38.4% | -3.8% |
| Totals | -14.6% | -3.8% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $30.91 | $0.23 | -15.4% | 4.3% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $17.47 | $0.15 | -19.8% | 4.3% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $47.43 | $0.48 | -10.4% | 4.3% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $26.27 | $0.21 | 0.4% | 4.3% |
| CA | $27.30 | $28.22 | $0.25 | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Totals | -8.2% | 4.3% |
Wow, the July tranche is down 14.6%. This is dreadful.
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | -8.2% | 8.5% | -6.8% | -14.6% | -5.3% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | -7.8% | 8.5% | -6.8% | -14.6% | -5.1% |
| Current Balance | 230,441 | 271,187 | 233,226 | 213,377 | 948,231 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 4.3% | -2.6% | -3.8% | -3.8% | -1.5% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 3.7% | -2.6% | -3.8% | -3.8% | -1.5% |
| R3K Balance | 259,049 | 243,437 | 240,601 | 240,263 | 983,350 |
| Annualized IRR | -6.4% | 8.8% | -9.3% | -28.4% | -6.1% |
Annual IRR at -6.1%.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| Current | -3.66% | 94,823 | 98,481 |
MFI Micro Tranches
As I mentioned this week, I started a second micro tranche. And as was the case with my first micro tranche, this one was probably started prematurely. Ah, if we only had the ability to see the future. But my first tranche has really battled back and I remain hopeful on newest tranche.
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $5.01 | $0.00 | -41.1% | 0.6% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $3.10 | $0.00 | 55.5% | 0.6% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $10.23 | $0.18 | -10.3% | 0.6% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $6.68 | $0.00 | -8.0% | 0.6% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $3.34 | $0.00 | 36.3% | 0.6% |
| Totals | 6.5% | 0.6% | |||
| 12/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MGIC | $5.38 | $5.54 | $0.00 | 3.0% | -2.0% |
| BSQR | $6.00 | $5.89 | $0.00 | -1.8% | -2.0% |
| SPCB | $4.52 | $4.56 | $0.00 | 0.9% | -2.0% |
| WLDN | $8.64 | $8.23 | $0.00 | -4.8% | -2.0% |
| MNDO | $2.58 | $2.41 | $0.00 | -6.7% | -2.0% |
| Totals | - | -1.9% | -2.0% |
Dividends & Warrants
This portfolio continues to struggle. Though it did gain a little ground this week.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week |
| BAC-WTA | $6.04 | $5.93 | $0.00 | -1.8% | -1.1% |
| AOD | $8.08 | $7.59 | $1.59 | 13.6% | 12.6% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $7.72 | $0.05 | -0.6% | -5.8% |
| CSQ | $9.32 | $9.70 | $1.96 | 25.1% | 23.2% |
| NTC | $12.05 | $12.60 | $1.25 | 14.9% | 13.1% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.76 | $1.19 | 7.0% | 7.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $34.77 | $0.00 | 63.7% | 74.0% |
| O | $22.72 | $51.08 | $17.63 | 202.4% | 193.4% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.53 | $2.14 | 52.1% | 52.9% |
| SJT | $8.82 | $4.18 | $0.11 | -51.3% | -49.0% |
| Totals | 6.0% | 5.7% |
Emotionally, I do not mind so much as I continue to reinvest the dividends, so that the dividends of the dividends make dividends. Here is a table of 2015 dividends (adjusted by factor):
I still have another week or so on 2015 4q, so may pull even with 2014.
Have a great Christmas week everyone.
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